You said it is a dumb assumption to say the pick the would end up 2-10. I agree with you we shouldn't assume there is no chance it could be number 1, but I am not sure what you mean with the 10 part. Are you saying you think there is some reasonable chance that the pick ends up worse than 10th? Cause unless they sign someone like Paul George that really doesn't seem possible. In a season where there was more tanking than ever you had to get 39 wins to pick 11th. If the Kings win 39 or more games next year with Fox, WCS, Hield and a lottery pick it would be one of the most improbable seasons in sports. They would actually need to sign someone like George to bring them there. I think Lebron on that team they may only be .500. There just isn't a lot of top end talent.
Not sure what you are asking here
It may be unlikely but has to be considered when placing value on that 2019 Sactown pick. Just assuming the pick will land 2-10 is a bad assumption, one, I am guessing, a good GM would not make. That 10-15 percent chances really lowers the value of that pick.
Yeah maybe 100 different things. Not the point. In the current universe Sacramento is not projected to be better than 20th best and the Celtics are obviously trying to push out their luxury tax commitment to 2019 on the Kyrie extension. Also future draft picks are generally always worth more than a drafted player of equal perceived value due to the "depreciation" of the rookie contract. While your world may be better, it's not likely.The Sacramento pick is top 1 protected. If it ends up at 1, the Celtics get the Sixers pick, which will almost certainly be a pick in the 20's. That was the point I was making. That even if the Kings are still terrible, there is still a 20% (or whatever the new percentage is) chance that the pick lands at #1 and thus stays in Philly and doesn't get to Boston. But there is also a chance the Kings aren't terrible or that with the new lottery odds they are terrible but the pick ends up being 5 or 6. I think there are plenty of arguments that the player drafted at 10 in this draft will be better than the player drafted at 5 next year (history tells us not all drafts are equal). I think there are plenty of arguments that Boston having the player next year, when it likely won't be in the luxury tax is more valuable then pushing it off a year and ending up paying more when the team is in luxury tax. I think there are plenty of arguments that having that salary next year would be far better in a trade both for value and actual salary.
Now sure if the Sacto pick ends up at 2 or 3 next year, you would expect the player to be better than a player taken at 10 this year, but even that is not a given.
Moranis you really got to stop overselling the chances of this going number 1 and acting like it completely kills the pick. There is at absolute worst a 14% chance of the pick being number 1 with the new odds. Steph Curry can hit better than that from half court. Lets not run around like crazy over something that is between 10-15% chance of happening at worst. It obviously would really suck if it happened, but its just not very likely.
I mean calling it 20% when the absolute worst is 14% is literally overselling the likelihood. If you had to run a projection the average is probably about 10% cause it is certainly possible they end up 5th to 7th in odds.
Also what are you talking about with it ending worse than 10th? Are the kings getting paul George for this?
I said 10 because yes, there is a chance Sacramento's pick ends up 10th, whether that be because they somehow end up as the 10th worse team or if its because they end up7th, 8th or 9th and a team or teams, with the new higher chances of getting into the top 4, not 3, get boosted into the top 4 from behind them. Its still a posdibility they could pick 10th.
And so when you look at the chance of the pick beung 1st and the Celtics getting a mid to late 20s pick and the chance that the pick could land 9th or 10th, the Sactown pick can't be valued as a sure fire top 2-5 pick. In trading the Sac pick, other GMs will definitely consider these chances.