Polarising hot take: 1st pick in 2017 Draft was weakest since 2013

[slightly biased bias fan]

I am not one for negativity and Brooklyn pick was the gift that keeps on giving but when I looked back on the 1st picks of previous drafts and there are a stream of transcendent players that starts in 2014 ends in 2017 from my perspective.

2014- Joel Embiid (If he was healthy he was a lock 1st pick)
2015- Karl-Anthony Towns
2016- Ben Simmons

2017 draft is extremely deep and Tatum looks like a guaranteed All-Star but IMO 2017 lacks a transcendent star.

2018 has its 1st pick in DeAndre Ayton who looks to be on the transcendent level too.

[KGs Knee]

I think Donovan Mitchell stands a decent chance at becoming a transcendent star.  Not a guarantee, but he's had an amazing rookie season in his own right.

As for the 2018 draft, it doesn't look like there will be a transcendent star.  It's not even a given who the 1st pick will be.  Bagley and Doncic both could just as easily be the top pick as Ayton.  I've yet to see any sort of consensus on who the top pick will be.

[Sophomore]

I am not one for negativity and Brooklyn pick was the gift that keeps on giving but when I looked back on the 1st picks of previous drafts and there are a stream of transcendent players that starts in 2014 ends in 2017 from my perspective.

2014- Joel Embiid (If he was healthy he was a lock 1st pick)
2015- Karl-Anthony Towns
2016- Ben Simmons

2017 draft is extremely deep and Tatum looks like a guaranteed All-Star but IMO 2017 lacks a transcendent star.

2018 has its 1st pick in DeAndre Ayton who looks to be on the transcendent level too.

Wiggins went first in 2014. If you want to compare the best player in each draft that’s cool, but you're not comparing number 1 picks. (The actual number 1 in last year’s draft is (so far) close to the worst all time; feel bad for that kid, can't quite believe what's happening.)

I'm not sure yet who the best player in last year's draft was. There are some very good ones. Much as it pains me to say it, Ball has turned his season around and the Lakers are playing pretty well. Mitchell is Mitchell.

[nickagneta]

If you are discussing first picks, then the Fultz pick was the worst since the Bennett pick and the one before that the Greg Oden pick and the one before that the Bargnani draft.

Is there really any doubt of this whatsoever?

[GreenFaith1819]

I don't know.....Jayson Tatum has taken over games in stretches for BOS this season...

That Indy game earlier this year? Dude looked like the BEST player on the floor for a few minutes..

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dzAxEncFJy8

A couple of EMPHATIC dunks...loud blocks...intimidation....

Dude looked like he was going coast to coast at around 2:30 but ran into Rozier and settled for an assist to him for a bucket..

Tatum has did this a few times this year.

Besides, Embiid and Simmons, while certainly transcendent talents - have had the luxury of conditioning before technically their first TRUE year in the NBA.

Tatum has played nearly entire year with little down time, is a new Dad (congrats to him ) AND has had to shoulder the burden for GH being out, along with Jaylen.

I love me some Tatum (and Jaylen). Can't wait to see the Three-Headed Dragon of Jayson-Jaylen-Hayward once GH returns.

But Jayson is LEGIT. Paul Pierce is smiling right now, as well as Grant Hill. Love his game AND his future.

EDIT: That was vid was against Indy - a legit playoff team. THIS one was against HOU - a contender.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=454xDTG34Mk

[keevsnick]

Ya I'm not yet willing to call Fultz a bust. It doesn't look good, but it also wouldn't surprise me if he came back next year and looked like the best player in the 2017 draft. His talent didn't disappear.

[mctyson]

If you are discussing first picks, then the Fultz pick was the worst since the Bennett pick and the one before that the Greg Oden pick and the one before that the Bargnani draft.

Is there really any doubt of this whatsoever?

Yes.

Fultz has yet to really play, like Simmons and Embiid before him.  I am in the camp that believes (a) someone screwed with his form, and (b) he will get it back and be normal again.

If he gets back to normal, then let's judge him when he plays a few NBA games.  I was a huge Embiid skeptic and am looking very wrong on him at this time. 

[Celtics4ever]

Lots of guys drank the kool-aid on the Fultz Hype Train.   But face it, each drank we all fall for some guy we like.

[Granath]

I am not one for negativity and Brooklyn pick was the gift that keeps on giving but when I looked back on the 1st picks of previous drafts and there are a stream of transcendent players that starts in 2014 ends in 2017 from my perspective.

2014- Joel Embiid (If he was healthy he was a lock 1st pick)
2015- Karl-Anthony Towns
2016- Ben Simmons

2017 draft is extremely deep and Tatum looks like a guaranteed All-Star but IMO 2017 lacks a transcendent star.

2018 has its 1st pick in DeAndre Ayton who looks to be on the transcendent level too.

There's a simple logic flaw here. You're looking at things in arrears without giving the same consideration to this current year. Embiid has been in the league for 4 years now and showed nothing - literally nothing - his first two years. Would you say in 2015 that he was "transcendent"? Simmons showed nothing- again, literally - his first year (I don't think he's transcendent now).

Yet you don't make the same allowance for anyone in this class. Fultz has shown nothing - the same way Embiid and Simmons did - but there's no allowance for him the way you're excusing Embiid and Simmons. Tatum would be averaging 17-19 ppg for a bad team yet he gets no consideration at being only 19 and being on a great team? Lorenzo Ball is matching Simmons step for step in assists and rebounds but there's no thought that he might improve his scoring next year? Never mind Lauri, Donavan Mitchell and Fox who are all performing exceptionally well for rookies.

Simply put, it's far too soon to tell. Maybe there are no superstars in this class. Maybe there are 4 or 5. We won't know until 2020. But if you're going to hold rookies to the same bar as guys who have been in the league 3 or 4 years, you're not comparing apples for apples.

[Boris Badenov]

If you are discussing first picks, then the Fultz pick was the worst since the Bennett pick and the one before that the Greg Oden pick and the one before that the Bargnani draft.

Is there really any doubt of this whatsoever?

Of course there is.

[nickagneta]

If you are discussing first picks, then the Fultz pick was the worst since the Bennett pick and the one before that the Greg Oden pick and the one before that the Bargnani draft.

Is there really any doubt of this whatsoever?

Of course there is.

Well, yeah if Fultz turns it around, which given the problem is mental and not physical could be very likely. I typed this under the assumption he busts out. If he busts out, then the statement is pretty right on.

[green_bballers13]

I think Donovan Mitchell stands a decent chance at becoming a transcendent star.  Not a guarantee, but he's had an amazing rookie season in his own right.

As for the 2018 draft, it doesn't look like there will be a transcendent star.  It's not even a given who the 1st pick will be.  Bagley and Doncic both could just as easily be the top pick as Ayton.  I've yet to see any sort of consensus on who the top pick will be.

I also think that Donovan Mitchell will be good, but I'm not sure why he would be considered to better than Tatum. Mitchell is taking over 16 shots per game, while Tatum is just short of 10 shots per game. If you extrapolate Tatum's stats out as if he were given as many looks as Mitchell, he'd average over 2 pts per game more than Mitchell.

Put Tatum on a team that is not 5 and I think he would be in the ROY conversation with Simmons and Mitchell.

[SparzWizard]

Lots of guys drank the kool-aid on the Fultz Hype Train.   But face it, each drank we all fall for some guy we like.

I was fantasizing a backcourt duo of IT4 and Fultz at one point.

I have never been so wrong in my life.

I'll take Kyrie and Tatum any day of the week.

[Boris Badenov]

If you are discussing first picks, then the Fultz pick was the worst since the Bennett pick and the one before that the Greg Oden pick and the one before that the Bargnani draft.

Is there really any doubt of this whatsoever?

Of course there is.

Well, yeah if Fultz turns it around, which given the problem is mental and not physical could be very likely. I typed this under the assumption he busts out. If he busts out, then the statement is pretty right on.

In other words, "if we assume a particular thing will happen, then there's no doubt it will happen."

Like others have said, there was considerable uncertainty (and maybe more pessimism) about Embiid at the same point in his career (and he wasn't the #1 pick). Simmons hadn't played a game either.

[nickagneta]

If you are discussing first picks, then the Fultz pick was the worst since the Bennett pick and the one before that the Greg Oden pick and the one before that the Bargnani draft.

Is there really any doubt of this whatsoever?

Of course there is.

Well, yeah if Fultz turns it around, which given the problem is mental and not physical could be very likely. I typed this under the assumption he busts out. If he busts out, then the statement is pretty right on.

In other words, "if we assume a particular thing will happen, then there's no doubt it will happen."

Like others have said, there was considerable uncertainty (and maybe more pessimism) about Embiid at the same point in his career (and he wasn't the #1 pick). Simmons hadn't played a game either.

No its more like "if a certain thing happens, let's compare it to similar things". That's how I was approaching it.