Poll: How Many Wins Do You Predict The Celtics Finish The Season With?

[SparzWizard]

I really wish we had beat the cavs. This board is going to be tough over the all-star break

yeah, overreaction city

what is the overreaction exactly?  The Celtics have been a mid-tier level playoff team for a couple of months now.  They are 18-14 since starting the year 22-4.  The recent stuff is a much larger sample and probably more indicative of the actual ability of the team.  The Cleveland hype is a bit much, but the Cavs clearly got better with the trade and they've always had the best player in the world.  Winning a series against the Cavs was always an uphill battle because James is still that good.

The overreaction is the dude above me saying we are all of a sudden gonna finish the season 11-13.

Or the thread saying this team doesnt give effort and that we miss the toughness of Kelly Olynyk. That would be the overreaction city.

the C's are 6-8 in their last 14 games.  I don't see it as a 1 game overreaction to think they might just continue at the pace they were on before that game and to finish the season below .500.  I don't believe they will but I can certainly see someone believing they will finish like their last 14 games

If you don't believe it's that bad, then I think it's pretty safe to call it an overreaction.

The C's had four days of rest after their London game. And guess what? They lost 4 in a row, in which three of them came at the TD Garden and a nailbiter to the franchise's hated rival. And then their last five games? Either came down to the wire or get blown into bits by elite teams in the East.

Right now, this team is a lost identity. It's like after that 16-game winning streak they suddenly fell apart. I can see them finish 11-13 with the way they have been playing. I really hope they prove me wrong by turning it around after the all-star break, but man, even they were given an extended break before and after the London game and they just couldn't capitalize it. Call it overreaction or whatever, but this team needs to find themselves and stop starting games by trailing 20+ and actually beat their opponents comfortably on a consistent basis.

[nickagneta]

Just looking at their schedule it looks rather easy. I say 16 more wins sounds right.

[dreamgreen]

Went with 56, they seem to be trending down and I don't have faith that CBS can get the team to pass and rebound. It is a consistent problem with his teams. 

[Moranis]

I really wish we had beat the cavs. This board is going to be tough over the all-star break

yeah, overreaction city

what is the overreaction exactly?  The Celtics have been a mid-tier level playoff team for a couple of months now.  They are 18-14 since starting the year 22-4.  The recent stuff is a much larger sample and probably more indicative of the actual ability of the team.  The Cleveland hype is a bit much, but the Cavs clearly got better with the trade and they've always had the best player in the world.  Winning a series against the Cavs was always an uphill battle because James is still that good.

The overreaction is the dude above me saying we are all of a sudden gonna finish the season 11-13.

Or the thread saying this team doesnt give effort and that we miss the toughness of Kelly Olynyk. That would be the overreaction city.

the C's are 6-8 in their last 14 games.  I don't see it as a 1 game overreaction to think they might just continue at the pace they were on before that game and to finish the season below .500.  I don't believe they will but I can certainly see someone believing they will finish like their last 14 games

If you don't believe it's that bad, then I think it's pretty safe to call it an overreaction.

Just because you and I don't think they will go 11-13 doesn't mean someone else doesn't based on more than just 1 game.  It isn't a 1 game overreaction if they base that belief on more than 1 game. 

I looked at the schedule and believe they will go anywhere from 16-8 to 12-12, so I voted for 14-10 right in the middle, but I could easily see them getting their groove back and playing more like the start of the season or continuing there below .500 play of the last 14 games.

[Moranis]

what is the overreaction exactly?  The Celtics have been a mid-tier level playoff team for a couple of months now.  They are 18-14 since starting the year 22-4.  The recent stuff is a much larger sample and probably more indicative of the actual ability of the team.  The Cleveland hype is a bit much, but the Cavs clearly got better with the trade and they've always had the best player in the world.  Winning a series against the Cavs was always an uphill battle because James is still that good.

The Cavs have been a trash tier team for several months now.  The recent stuff is a much larger sample and probably much more indicative of the actual ability of the team.

And now the addition of Jordan Clarkson, Larry Nance, George Hill, and Rodney Hood --- none of whom has helped their previous teams win games this season -- is enough to have you saying the East once again belongs to the Cavs?

Talk about overreactions.


Look, if you want to say the middle of the season doesn't matter that much and at the end of the day we should focus on the talent at the top of the roster, that's fine.

Just be consistent about it.

the Cavs are a different team.  If they made no moves and still had the same team, then absolutely their last two months would be indicative of their team.  But the Cavs didn't sit pat, they made 2 moves (I'm not counting the Wade trade as that really was unnecessary), and those 2 moves completely remade their roster.  Before those guys ever set foot on the floor, I said it made the Cavs the clear favorites in the East, because the 4 new players provided exactly what the Cavs needed to put around James.  Much better 2-way players, that play much better off the ball, are great shooters, and better defenders.  They removed the cancer that was IT from the locker-room, that alone was a big positive as you can see what James can do when he is happier and more engaged.  Cleveland is now the favorite to come out of the East, not because they destroyed Boston, but because they have the best player in the world on their team and now have a team that better suits his skill set.

Well we're missing Hayward, Smart, are still integrating Monroe to the system and are trying to get Brad to be less autistic about small ball, not to mention trying to fix Horford and Tatum's heads. They're certainly good, but we're still waiting for our reinforcements and we've been a very good team over the course of the season, even with a slump.

I don't think Hayward comes back this year and even if he does, he isn't going to be the Hayward that signed this summer.  Smart is a bench player.  A good one, but still a bench player and the team has still gone 18-14 since the 22-4 start, much of that with Smart playing.  Monroe is a nice player, but he isn't shifting the wins more than a game or two.  Boston didn't dramatically overhaul its team and make itself significantly better.  Not like Cleveland. 

[seancally]

I think it's well within reason to expect 55 wins (finish the season 15-9), and I think more likely we would exceed that than fall short. One source has our strength of remaining schedule ranked 25th - meaning there are 5 teams with a cushier schedule left. Those are MIL, BKN, PHX, ATL, IND. Dunno how legit the source is, but there's one thing.

For what it's worth, this team isn't the 22-4 group that started the year and it's also not the 18-14 group of late. Somewhere in the middle. And for as much as Cleveland improved their roster, the biggest factor is that Lebron wants to play hard now - he wants to play for his teammates. If he's engaged, the team is good. He wasn't engaged with that last group of scrubs. We'll see how that translates in the playoffs when you need other stars to step up. Those early Lebron-led CLE teams were great regular season teams but lacked firepower in the playoffs.

[Chris22]

Went with 56, they seem to be trending down and I don't have faith that CBS can get the team to pass and rebound. It is a consistent problem with his teams.

How about just getting them to block out?

[ThePaintedArea]

put me down as the optimist.  I say 56 wins (16-8 rest of the way).   Marcus coming back and some Brad Stevens magic down the stretch.  It will be close with Toronto I believe, no idea if we will be 1 or 2.

56-26

So the raging pessimist, Moranis, predicts 54, and the cock-eyed optimist, blink, predicts 56. The reasonable seancally predicts 55.  Not much daylight in between, it looks like.

There's enough chance - and other factors beyond how "good" a team is - in an 82-game season that those predictions are actually all about the same.

If you look at point differential (a better measure than wins for how good a team is), Boston is in the second tier. The first tier is Golden State, Toronto, and Houston. The second tier is Boston, OKC, Spurs, and T-Wolves. If Cleveland's new-found momentum is real, then that might change things.

[ThePaintedArea]

I don't think Hayward comes back this year and even if he does, he isn't going to be the Hayward that signed this summer. 

It's not an injury that's very common, so it's hard to compare outcomes. Paul George was similarly injured before the 2015 season; he played six games at the end of the season, to no great effect. He then played 81 games the following year and made the all-star team.

Obviously Hayward is not George, and there are differences between how fast an individual heals, how bad the injury is, how good the rehab is, how devoted they are to it, etc., etc.  It sounds like Hayward could be back this season, but you're probably right that he won't match his pre-injury play this year.

Smart is a bench player.  A good one, but still a bench player and the team has still gone 18-14 since the 22-4 start, much of that with Smart playing. 

Smart has consistently averaged the fifth-most minutes on the team. Obviously Stevens likes what he brings.  So - he's literally a bench player, but he plays starter's minutes.  On the other hand, he did not play well for an extended period before he hurt himself (reportedly, he was mad at himself for his play). The turnovers, especially, have been alarming.

Monroe is a nice player, but he isn't shifting the wins more than a game or two.  Boston didn't dramatically overhaul its team and make itself significantly better.  Not like Cleveland.

If Monroe shifted the wins by a game, that would be a big contribution! But likely it'll be more modest than that.

I've always felt that he was misused and underappreciated in his previous gigs. Stan VG's idea of playing him with Drummond in twin-towers lineups was refreshingly counter-conventional, but got mediocre results and took away some of his strengths.

Whether or not Cleveland made itself significantly better is an open question, I think. Addition by subtraction? They had Nance in at crunchtime last night, and he delivered; and it's hard to believe that Hill has lost his defensive mojo for good - probably that was more a function of the team he was on.

So far it looks like Thomas and Crowder have been re-born in their new surroundings.

I'm skeptical about the Lakers' recent personnel choices. The purpose, apparently, was to clear cap room - but are they really such a plum free agent destination this upcoming off-season? Off-loading Nance was a mistake, and IT's hip does not inspire confidence. They shed Clarkson's salary, but if a star or two don't want to play for them it doesn't amount to much. And their plan is to play both Ingram and Paul George together? Maybe, maybe not. At any rate, if I were George I'd consider my legacy and my chance at a ring.

[Moranis]

I don't think Hayward comes back this year and even if he does, he isn't going to be the Hayward that signed this summer. 

It's not an injury that's very common, so it's hard to compare outcomes. Paul George was similarly injured before the 2015 season; he played six games at the end of the season, to no great effect. He then played 81 games the following year and made the all-star team.

Obviously Hayward is not George, and there are differences between how fast an individual heals, how good the rehab is, how devoted they are to it, etc., etc.  It sounds like Hayward could be back this season, but you're probably right that he won't match his pre-injury play.

George was injured August 1st.  Hayward was injured October 17.  George played his 1st game April 5 and played from 13:54 minutes to 17:46 minutes in those 6 games.  He shot 36.7% in those 6 games.  His career low aside from those 6 games was the following season at 41.8%. 

If Hayward needs the exact same amount of recovery time as George, the earliest he would suit up is the middle of June and if Boston is actually still playing then, I can't see them inserting Hayward into the NBA Finals when he will be a shell of himself.  Now maybe Hayward heals up a month faster than George, but that is still mid-May, and again I just can't see Boston inserting Hayward in the middle of a heated 2nd round match-up with the Cavs or the ECF with the Raptors (those are the two most likely playoff scenarios for those rounds). 

[ThePaintedArea]

I don't think Hayward comes back this year and even if he does, he isn't going to be the Hayward that signed this summer. 

It's not an injury that's very common, so it's hard to compare outcomes. Paul George was similarly injured before the 2015 season; he played six games at the end of the season, to no great effect. He then played 81 games the following year and made the all-star team.

Obviously Hayward is not George, and there are differences between how fast an individual heals, how good the rehab is, how devoted they are to it, etc., etc.  It sounds like Hayward could be back this season, but you're probably right that he won't match his pre-injury play.

George was injured August 1st.  Hayward was injured October 17.  George played his 1st game April 5 and played from 13:54 minutes to 17:46 minutes in those 6 games.  He shot 36.7% in those 6 games.  His career low aside from those 6 games was the following season at 41.8%. 

If Hayward needs the exact same amount of recovery time as George, the earliest he would suit up is the middle of June and if Boston is actually still playing then, I can't see them inserting Hayward into the NBA Finals when he will be a shell of himself.  Now maybe Hayward heals up a month faster than George, but that is still mid-May, and again I just can't see Boston inserting Hayward in the middle of a heated 2nd round match-up with the Cavs or the ECF with the Raptors (those are the two most likely playoff scenarios for those rounds).

The rehab variables are just too great, and the frequency of this type of injury too small.  Kudos, though, for looking up all of that.  In any case, your main point is likely - even if Hayward does come back this year, he's not likely to be much of a factor.  Then again, he may surprise us.

[PhoSita]

Call me crazy but I think how the team performed in November and December is just as indicative of post-All-Star performance as how they performed in the doldrums of late December, January, and February.

I agree that Hayward isn't coming back, for what it's worth.


Kyrie, Brown, Tatum, Horford is still a quality top group.

Monroe will help.

Morris, Rozier, Smart, Theis, Baynes ... I think the bench will be adequate.

[celticsclay]

Call me crazy but I think how the team performed in November and December is just as indicative of post-All-Star performance as how they performed in the doldrums of late December, January, and February.

I agree that Hayward isn't coming back, for what it's worth.


Kyrie, Brown, Tatum, Horford is still a quality top group.

Monroe will help.

Morris, Rozier, Smart, Theis, Baynes ... I think the bench will be adequate.

Plus it seems like we may still add a buyout player.

[Vermont Green]

If you look at point differential (a better measure than wins for how good a team is), Boston is in the second tier. The first tier is Golden State, Toronto, and Houston. The second tier is Boston, OKC, Spurs, and T-Wolves. If Cleveland's new-found momentum is real, then that might change things.

Point Diff is telling, with the exception of Cleveland.  They are better than their Point Diff and probably should be in the top tier along with Toronto (or maybe Tier 1B).

Monroe is our wild card, much like Ibaka was for Toronto last season (Ibaka did not end up making much of an impact last season).  I believe we are Tier 2 right now as our Point Diff indicates.  Still some time to improve that though.

[Moranis]

If you look at point differential (a better measure than wins for how good a team is), Boston is in the second tier. The first tier is Golden State, Toronto, and Houston. The second tier is Boston, OKC, Spurs, and T-Wolves. If Cleveland's new-found momentum is real, then that might change things.

Point Diff is telling, with the exception of Cleveland.  They are better than their Point Diff and probably should be in the top tier along with Toronto (or maybe Tier 1B).

Monroe is our wild card, much like Ibaka was for Toronto last season (Ibaka did not end up making much of an impact last season).  I believe we are Tier 2 right now as our Point Diff indicates.  Still some time to improve that though.

Boston's expected W/L on basketball-reference is 36-22 (4th).  Cleveland is 28-28 (15th), but Toronto's expected W/L is actually better than their actual record at 42-14 (tied with Houston for 1st - GS is 3rd at 42-15).