« Reply #12 on: December 30, 2017, 06:11:15 PM »
I'd say it's a 4 man race for ROY. Simmons, Kuzma, Mitchel, and Tatum. If Tatum is playing similar minutes (30 mpg as a starter) and his is the only team to make the playoffs (which would be the case as of right now) how heavily will voters weigh that in their decision making?
The other big question is Tatum's continued level of play. Will he slow down as he hits the rookie wall or will he continue to become more aggressive as he continues to get more comfortable? So far he just keeps getting better.
I don't think it's ever weighed heavily, as far as I can recall. Which makes sense, since the best rookies are usually on the worst teams.
I think the difference-maker wouldn't necessarily be his numbers overall, but a few really high-impact performances. Like, we play the Wiz and the Raptors a few times at the end of the year. If he goes for 25 in those games and hits some game-clinching shots on nationally televised games, that could do it.
It's true, record is not usually a big factor in rookie voting. But how often does a rookie this good, have a role this size, on a team winning this much?
Not often.
I wasn't dismissing the idea that it could happen. Just saying we really have no frame of reference.
I did some hunting. Chris Webber won it on a 50-win GSW team (edging out Penny, who was also on a 50-win team). Tim Duncan won, but that was a landslide and deservedly so. Not a lot to go on.
And then of course, there was one year where the only two vote-getters were both on 60-win teams. But we know all about that.
Totally. It'll be interesting to see how it plays out.
TP for the research.

Logged
1957, 1959, 1960, 1961, 1962, 1963, 1964, 1965, 1966, 1968, 1969, 1974, 1976, 1981, 1984, 1986, 2008, 2024