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Author Topic: How Much was Luck?  (Read 2775 times)

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How Much was Luck?
« on: November 30, 2017, 08:14:54 PM »

Offline jmen788

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How much of it is luck that we are in the position that we are in? That Billy King not only happened, but that those picks became gold... that Kyrie became available the way he did and when he did, that MJ turned down the farm for Justice Winslow (who is garbage)... etc., etc.? I was just thinking about it, and some of this was skill but we got a lot of good breaks. Finally the luck of the Irish again...
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Re: How Much was Luck?
« Reply #1 on: November 30, 2017, 08:41:31 PM »

Offline wayupnorth

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More to do with skill than luck. Of course, luck was certainly necessary, but Danny put us in a position to get as lucky as we have.

Trading the 1 for 3 and future pick wasn't luck, for example.
Trading for IT wasn't luck. Drafting Jaylen wasn't luck. Trading for Crowder wasn't luck.
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Re: How Much was Luck?
« Reply #2 on: November 30, 2017, 08:45:16 PM »

Offline jmen788

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True but we offered the Knicks Crowder and a 2nd rounder in a trade and the Knicks took the 2nd rounder. Seems like many times we were saved from bad moves by Danny by the other side turning him down (see Winslow for 4 picks).
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Re: How Much was Luck?
« Reply #3 on: November 30, 2017, 08:56:58 PM »

Offline Celtics4ever

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Ainge himself made a lot of this so called luck with intelligent choices with foresight.   He took calculated risks and won most of them thus far.
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Re: How Much was Luck?
« Reply #4 on: November 30, 2017, 10:01:17 PM »

Offline wayupnorth

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Quote from: jmen788 on November 30, 2017, 08:45:16 PM
True but we offered the Knicks Crowder and a 2nd rounder in a trade and the Knicks took the 2nd rounder. Seems like many times we were saved from bad moves by Danny by the other side turning him down (see Winslow for 4 picks).

When and who did we offer Crowder for?

I really don't remember.

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Re: How Much was Luck?
« Reply #5 on: November 30, 2017, 10:15:14 PM »

Offline BitterJim

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Quote from: Celtics4ever on November 30, 2017, 08:56:58 PM
Ainge himself made a lot of this so called luck with intelligent choices with foresight.   He took calculated risks and won most of them thus far.

Yup.  It's "luck", but really it's more about putting yourself in that position to get "lucky".  Ainge has done a great job of having us in a position to trade for a star since basically the KG/Pierce trade
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Re: How Much was Luck?
« Reply #6 on: November 30, 2017, 10:29:50 PM »

Offline SCeltic34

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Quote from: jmen788 on November 30, 2017, 08:45:16 PM
True but we offered the Knicks Crowder and a 2nd rounder in a trade and the Knicks took the 2nd rounder. Seems like many times we were saved from bad moves by Danny by the other side turning him down (see Winslow for 4 picks).

I thought it was 6 picks but I could be misremembering - 2 first rounders and 4 second rounders - for Winslow.  But was it ever truly confirmed that this was the offer?  All I recall is that Danny admitted that he woke up the next day and was a bit relieved that he didn't make what could have been a really bad move.

Otherwise I'd agree that Ainge created some luck through his masterful management.
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Re: How Much was Luck?
« Reply #7 on: November 30, 2017, 10:37:30 PM »

Offline droopdog7

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Look at any good great team and you'll find luck.  Curry and Klay were both late lottery picks.  Green was a second round pick.  Those are more luck than skill because many other teams could have drafted those guys.
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Re: How Much was Luck?
« Reply #8 on: November 30, 2017, 10:42:24 PM »

Offline ETNCeltics

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Was it luck that Cleveland won the lottery twice to get Lebron and Kyrie? Was it (bad) luck that we didn't win the lottery in '97  and get Tim Duncan?

Thing is, a lot of organizations have gotten breaks and failed to capitalize on them. At this point, it looks like Danny has capitalized on the breaks we got, big time.
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Re: How Much was Luck?
« Reply #9 on: December 01, 2017, 05:30:07 AM »

Offline jmen788

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I completely agree with all the sentiments that we created the luck with shrewd moves. It just feels like we almost made a few big boneheaded deals that could have messed this all up. I'm just so happy and thankful things worked out!
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Re: How Much was Luck?
« Reply #10 on: December 01, 2017, 06:44:23 AM »

Offline Ilikesports17

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I'm not sure if it's a good idea to try to evaluate the moves a GM was rumored to have tried to make, but didn't actually make.

No one knows what we really offered for Winslow, George, Okafor Noel etc I don't think it's wise to put too much weight into rumors. Evaluate what ainge has done, not what some reporter thinks he tried to do.
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Re: How Much was Luck?
« Reply #11 on: December 01, 2017, 07:53:21 AM »

Offline trickybilly

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Maybe 20%
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Re: How Much was Luck?
« Reply #12 on: December 01, 2017, 10:04:51 AM »

Offline timpiker

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You make your own luck
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Re: How Much was Luck?
« Reply #13 on: December 01, 2017, 10:30:23 AM »

Offline kozlodoev

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Quote from: timpiker on December 01, 2017, 10:04:51 AM
You make your own luck
Pretty much. You could say we were lucky with the NJ trade... but we weren't lucky in the Durant draft and the Durant free agency sweepstakes. If you're coming above par in the long run, you're doing something right.
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Re: How Much was Luck?
« Reply #14 on: December 01, 2017, 10:42:44 AM »

Offline csfansince60s

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Quote from: droopdog7 on November 30, 2017, 10:37:30 PM
Look at any good great team and you'll find luck.  Curry and Klay were both late lottery picks.  Green was a second round pick.  Those are more luck than skill because many other teams could have drafted those guys.

TP.

The old adage that "luck is when opportunity meets preparation" certainly applies to Danny and our Cs here.

I also believe that it is better to be lucky than good.

We've been pretty lucky in both respects in the history of our organization.

We've obviously had some pretty horrific bad luck:

Bias
Lewis
Pitino
Duncan
Durant (X2)
KGs injury
Perk and Allen's injuries in Finals
etc.
etc.

And somehow the pain and the feeling of injustice for the the bad luck makes us forget all the good.

17 and counting, right?
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