Trade ideas : Terry Rozier

[indeedproceed]

I’d probably do the Simmons trade for what he’s bringing to the team, he can initiate the offense next to Smart and he’s a tenacious defender and competitor. Good rebounder. Much better scorer than a Rozier right now but Simmons is 28, and he went to Orlando for the opportunity they’d give him. We can’t give him 24 mpg and he likely won’t start, and the Spurs were more willing to let him walk than put him in a role he didn’t want.

[Jvalin]

Honest question : Apart from his on-ball defense (which is good but not spectacular), what exactly does Terry Rozier bring to this team?

Excellent rebounding and low TOs for a guard and a very solid spot-up 3-point shooter.

Rozier is a SG, not a PG. When Stevens finally realizes this, he could look a lot more like Avery Bradley and a lot less like a dude who dribbles the ball off his knee.

Both Brown and Smart are better rebounders than Rozier.

contested rebs
Brown 1.7
Smart 1.5
Rozier 1.1

contested reb%
Smart 34.9
Brown 25.8
Rozier 25.5

avg reb distance
Rozier 7.7
Smart 6.6
Brown 6.4

https://stats.nba.com/players/rebounding/?Season=2017-18&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&PlayerPosition=G&sort=REB_CONTEST&dir=1&TeamID=1610612738

To put it another way, Rozier is mostly grabbing long uncontested rebs. 

As for his low turnover rate, I bet it has to do with the fact that CBS isn't using him as the primary ball handler anymore. Kyrie-Smart are the primary ball handlers and to a lesser extent Larkin.

Terry is hear to stay simply because Smart is not a lock to be on the team next year. 

KI
Brown
Tatum
AL
Hayward
Run it back 2018

Smart/Baynes/Morris/TROZ  (great bench)

The rest of the gang is trade bait if it improves the team.. 

probably the single biggest factor in keeping Rozier.

Ainge is one of the best GMs around the league (if not the best) in cap management. If he believed that Smart would price himself out of Boston, he would have already traded him (like he did with Bradley). Obviously, I may well be wrong, but there is no doubt in my mind that Smart is gonna stay.

Honest question : Apart from his on-ball defense (which is good but not spectacular), what exactly does Terry Rozier bring to this team?

so if you admit he has little value, why would another team offer anything worthwhile for him?

Cause they might like him. I believe he still has value around the league. That's one of the reasons I want us to trade him in the first place. I mean, Larkin (for instance) is even worse than Rozier, but who is gonna trade for Larkin?

[Jvalin]

I’d probably do the Simmons trade for what he’s bringing to the team, he can initiate the offense next to Smart and he’s a tenacious defender and competitor. Good rebounder. Much better scorer than a Rozier right now but Simmons is 28, and he went to Orlando for the opportunity they’d give him. We can’t give him 24 mpg and he likely won’t start, and the Spurs were more willing to let him walk than put him in a role he didn’t want.

Of course we can. Simmons would provide cover for both the SG and the SF position. Rozier is playing 23.5 mins per game. Semi is playing 13.7 mins per game. 23.5 + 13.7 = 37.2  There would be plenty of minutes for Simmons (and Semi). Not to mention, he isn't starting for the Magic either.

[crimson_stallion]

Honest question : Apart from his on-ball defense (which is good but not spectacular), what exactly does Terry Rozier bring to this team?

Do you know that Rozier and Horford are the only two guys who rank top 5 on the Celtics in both Defensive Rating and Offensive Rating? 

He's also averaging 15 points, 7 rebounds and 3 assists, 1.5 steals and only 1 turnovers per 36 minutes while shooting 37% from three and 82% from the foul line.  That's pretty impressive production on a per minute basis. 

His biggest weakness is his FG%, and at 38% even that is ALMOST respectable for a point guard.

What does he bring to the team?  He's an outstanding ball handler, he is a top shelf athlete with elite end-to-end speed, he's one of the best rebounding point guards I've ever seen play the game, he's an exceptional defender, he's a scrappy hustle guy who chases every loose ball, he's good three point shooter, a capable shot creator, and he has a history of making big plays/shots in the clutch.

In other words, he brings quite a lot!

[rollie mass]

I recently moved into Rozier camp and i think the addition of Kyrie and his dribbling skills have already begun to rub off
.Essentially this is Roziers second year as his first was spent in Maine.He is long,athletic and tough why would anybody trade such a young piece now
 

[crimson_stallion]

Honest question : Apart from his on-ball defense (which is good but not spectacular), what exactly does Terry Rozier bring to this team?

Excellent rebounding and low TOs for a guard and a very solid spot-up 3-point shooter.

Rozier is a SG, not a PG. When Stevens finally realizes this, he could look a lot more like Avery Bradley and a lot less like a dude who dribbles the ball off his knee.

Both Brown and Smart are better rebounders than Rozier.

contested rebs
Brown 1.7
Smart 1.5
Rozier 1.1

contested reb%
Smart 34.9
Brown 25.8
Rozier 25.5

avg reb distance
Rozier 7.7
Smart 6.6
Brown 6.4

https://stats.nba.com/players/rebounding/?Season=2017-18&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&PlayerPosition=G&sort=REB_CONTEST&dir=1&TeamID=1610612738

To put it another way, Rozier is mostly grabbing long uncontested rebs. 

In what way is that at all relevant? 

What matters is that he's getting rebounds, not how he's getting them.  IF he's most grabbing long uncontested rebounds, then that means he's seeing those rebounds and getting in the right place at the right time to grab them  If anything the fact that they are uncontested might be even more impressive - it means he's collecting the rebounds that other guys either aren't seeing, or are too lazy to chase.

And I've also lost count of the number of times I've seen him sky over multiple bigs to grab rebounds in the paint - the kid is a beast.

Also are you kidding me right now - Jaylen Brown is a 6'7", 230 hyper athletic forward who is playing out of position at the SG spot this year by necessity.  You're comparing his rebounding to that of a 6'2", 190 pound point guard?  Really?!?

I mean the Smart/Rozier comparison is fine, but comparing Rozier and Brown as rebounders is mind blowingly ludicrous.  You may as well be comparing Jaylen Brown's rebounding to Joel Embiid's - this would be similarly ridiculous.   

As for his low turnover rate, I bet it has to do with the fact that CBS isn't using him as the primary ball handler anymore. Kyrie-Smart are the primary ball handlers and to a lesser extent Larkin.

No.

Per Basketball reference, Terry Rozier so far this year has played 76% of his minutes at the PG spot and 24 at the SG spot.  That's dead in line with his career numbers - and he's had low turnover numbers his entire NBA career. 

By comparison Marcus Smart has played only 6% of his minutes at the PG spot.  The majority (77%) have come at the SG spot and the next highest (17%) at the SF spot.  So he's barely playing the point at all over the past two seasons - yet his turnover rate is (and always has been) significantly higher then Rozier's. 

Rozier is quite simply a more careful and more intelligent passer then Smart - he doesn't have the court vision to see openings and scoring opportunities (hence the lower assist numbers) but he rarely makes  bad passes or risky passes - he makes the simple play.  Samrt by comparison is prone to makigng things more difficult then they need to be, and makes far more risky passes.

Per Basketball reference, here is the turnover breakdown for Rozier and Smart:

Rozier
Bad Pass: 2
Lost Ball: 8
Other: 6

Smart:
Bad Pass: 21
Lost Ball: 8
Other: 14

Smart has dished out roughly twice as many assists as Rozier this year (103 vs 45) and yet he has 10x as many turnovers off bad passes (21 vs 2).  There is your answer as to why Rozier's turnovers are lower.

That puts Rozier at a rate of 22.5 assists per bad pass turnover, while Smart is at 4.9 assists per bad pass turnover.  That's a clear indication that Rozier is a far, far, far more accurate passer.

This holds true for their careers too, albeit to a lesser degree (Rozier has made huge strides this year):

For his career Smart has dished out 860 assists and 198 bad pass turnovers - a rate of 4.3 assists for every bad pass.
 
For his career Rozier has dished out 213 assists and 33 bad pass turnovers - a rate of 6.5 assists for every bad pass.

So who is, in fact, the better point guard of the two?  I haven't got access to see their Pure Point ratings, but I'd be willing to bet that Roziers is far, far better then Smart's this year.

[The Oracle]

Basketball reference notoriously mismarks players as they do most of it according to height.  Smart is the point when on the floor with Rozier and arguing otherwise is nonsense. 

When on the floor together the Smart/Rozier combo along with the other players on the floor with them have created a total of 139 assists so far this year.  Of those 139 assists Rozier has just 20 of them, just 14.4% of the total assists and not a total you would expect from a solid point guard.  Smart has 56 of them 40.3% of the total.  It is obvious who the PG is and is creating offense, and who is not.

Over all of Rozier's minutes he has just 47 assists, there have been a total of 221 assists by him and his teammates in his 536 minutes of floor time.  47 out of 221, Rozier has just 21.3% of the total assists created while he was on the floor, that is NOT representative of a good PG.

The only assists Rozier gets are the easy ones that every guard gets from simple ball movement.  He doesn't turn the ball over because he does nothing but make the safe and easy play.  This is not what you want from a PG, they must be able to create for others and Rozier simply doesn't have those skills.  His assist to turnover ratio is virtually meaningless in reference to his PG skills.

[Celtics4ever]

Rozier has been our bench scoring the two previous games.   Why do guys hate him so much?  Is it because he is in a gang?   Because I can think of three games this year that he helped us win.   I don't expect him to carry the team because he is a bench player.   But night in and night out is he ever the sole reason we lose a game? 

He plays solid D even when the shots are not falling.   

[The Oracle]

Rozier has been our bench scoring the two previous games.   Why do guys hate him so much?  Is it because he is in a gang?   Because I can think of three games this year that he helped us win.   I don't expect him to carry the team because he is a bench player.   But night in and night out is he ever the sole reason we lose a game? 

He plays solid D even when the shots are not falling.   

I like Rozier as a player just fine.  Crimson however is running around trying to portray him as some elite point guard prospect and it is far far from the truth.

[kozlodoev]

Honest question : Apart from his on-ball defense (which is good but not spectacular), what exactly does Terry Rozier bring to this team?

Excellent rebounding and low TOs for a guard and a very solid spot-up 3-point shooter.

Rozier is a SG, not a PG. When Stevens finally realizes this, he could look a lot more like Avery Bradley and a lot less like a dude who dribbles the ball off his knee.

The rebounding is a fluke. Our team makes concerted effort to give guards opportunities to walk in and rebound the ball (or at least have done that over the last couple of years). Just look at how Avery Bradley is doing this year vs. last year.

[jambr380]

Honest question : Apart from his on-ball defense (which is good but not spectacular), what exactly does Terry Rozier bring to this team?

Excellent rebounding and low TOs for a guard and a very solid spot-up 3-point shooter.

Rozier is a SG, not a PG. When Stevens finally realizes this, he could look a lot more like Avery Bradley and a lot less like a dude who dribbles the ball off his knee.

The rebounding is a fluke. Our team makes concerted effort to give guards opportunities to walk in and rebound the ball (or at least have done that over the last couple of years). Just look at how Avery Bradley is doing this year vs. last year.

I would actually say Rozier could have even more rebounds if he wanted to steal them from teammates. He is always skying through the air in the area of a rebound, but pulls away when he sees his teammate is going to pull it down.

Say what you want about Rozier, but he goes after almost every loose ball. This is a very underrated skill and one I think we would miss with a more lethargic player. We are (and have been) spoiled with very energetic guards.

[rondofan1255]

I voted for Simmons, but his offense may be equally frustrating. DPE for a scorer.

Honest question : Apart from his on-ball defense (which is good but not spectacular), what exactly does Terry Rozier bring to this team?

Excellent rebounding and low TOs for a guard and a very solid spot-up 3-point shooter.

Rozier is a SG, not a PG. When Stevens finally realizes this, he could look a lot more like Avery Bradley and a lot less like a dude who dribbles the ball off his knee.

The rebounding is a fluke. Our team makes concerted effort to give guards opportunities to walk in and rebound the ball (or at least have done that over the last couple of years). Just look at how Avery Bradley is doing this year vs. last year.

His rebounding was excellent in college and it translated.

[JBcat]

If Wyc and the owners are willing to take a risk and go deep in the tax trade Morris and Rozier(a non Lakers Grizzlies pick maybe) for Jabari Parker.

Then with RFA re-sign Parker and Smart.

The downside is either Parker and/or Smart could still bolt with RFA status.
Parker is never the same after 2 ACL tears.

The upside is Parker becomes the new scoring 6th man for potentially a long time (and learns to play adequate defense), and always have at least 2 of Brown, Tatum, Hayward, and Parker on the court at all times.
You then have 2 more bigger salaries to help match up for a potential bigger trade like for AD down the line.

Wyc has always said he would be willing to go to the tax. Not sure if the Bucks are as willing and they just got Bledsoe.  This also helps them back fill their roster if they trade for someone like Jordan.

I don’t think the Celts would take risk like this though going deep in the tax.  Not my money though. Lol