A Different Take on DA's Drafting of Tatum

[DefenseWinsChamps]

Watching closeups of Tatum cup the ball on drives with his long, gangly arms surprised me with just how long he is. Then, I heard (somewhere?) that the Celtics don't think he is done growing. All of this got me thinking ...

What if Danny Ainge's drafting of Jayson Tatum over Josh Jackson and Markelle Fultz, and to a lesser extent Smith, Fox, Isaac, Monk, and Markannen, was a critique of his previous drafts? What if this (and 2016) was a sign of Ainge's growth as a GM?

Most recognize that the greatest drafting mistake of the past 5 years (hindsight is 20/20) was Ainge not being willing to pull the trigger on Giannis. Instead, Ainge played it safe with a smart, efficient big from Gonzaga. There were reports leading up to the draft that Ainge really liked him, even comparing him to Scottie Pippen, but in the end, he couldn't pull the trigger.

2017 included several skilled (albeit lacking in some way) bigs, including Isaac and Markanen at the top of the draft. 2016 included Bender and Poeltl.

On the other side of things, he has always been attracted to competitive, tough-nosed guards/wings (maybe he sees himself in them?), from Allen to Rondo to West to Rozier to Smart. These guys are "his" kinds of picks. 2017's draft include Fox, Smith, Jackson, and Monk who all fit that type in different ways. 2016's draft included Dunn, Hield, and Murray who fit that build in different ways.

We know the story. Instead of picking his usual picks (competitive guards), and instead of selecting the "skilled" big man, Ainge went with the wing with the most size both years. One year, it was Jaylen Brown, who measured 6'7'' with a 7'1'' wingspan. The next year was Tatum, who measured 6'8.5'' with a 6'11'' wingspan.

My different take (even if it was not intentional) is that Ainge didn't want to miss out on the next great wing either year. He saw a bit of Giannis in both Brown and Tatum, and regardless of what any scouts or fans thought, he thought they both had the highest upside at the most important position in modern basketball.

Brown is probably done growing (rumors had it that he put on 1'' his rookie year). Tatum could cap out around 6'10''. Both guys can drive. Both guys can handle the ball. Both guys can shoot. Both guys use their length to be disruptive on defense.

Maybe Ainge regretted passing on Giannis, and saw a little bit of the upside of Giannis in Tatum. Maybe Ainge regretted drafting Olynyk, and therefore did not value Bender, Poeltl, Markannen, or Isaac as highly as others. Althouth Ainge likes competitive guards, maybe he has been slightly disappointed with Smart, particularly because he is going against so many good guards in the modern NBA. Maybe he thought their value has dropped due to market saturation; therefore, maybe he did not value Fultz, Fox, Murray, Smith, Monk, or Jackson as highly as he did before.

Maybe he learned. Maybe he grew as a GM. Maybe that's why he selected tall, lanky, competitive, smart, skilled wings.

Maybe ...

[positivitize]

Interesting theory.

I have another one.

Maybe Danny wasn't impressed with Fultz. Maybe Danny didn't want the nightmare of spacing that Jackson would have brought. Maybe Danny saw Tatum's abilities on offense and saw potential for a 25ppg scorer who would have the opportunity to learn defense from a team/coach/culture that takes pride on the defensive end.

Or maybe Danny just didn't see a whole lot of separation between the top draft picks and picked the one that fit our needs the best. While picking up another probable-top-10 pick. At that time we had IT, Smart, Bradley, Rozier (and Jaylen playing the 2) so maybe a skilled 18-year-old Gaurd wasn't exactly what Danny wanted coming out of this draft. All other things being equal, draft for fit.

Either way. I'm happy we have Tatum.

[nickagneta]

My guess is I think Danny just took the best player available the last two years. Given how Brown and Tatum are playing as compared to the players chosen around them, I think that's a pretty good guess.

[liam]

Brown,Tatum and Smart are the only really high draft picks that Danny has had so the sample size is small but he looks like he hit on all three...

[rochrist]

Watching closeups of Tatum cup the ball on drives with his long, gangly arms surprised me with just how long he is. Then, I heard (somewhere?) that the Celtics don't think he is done growing. All of this got me thinking ...

What if Danny Ainge's drafting of Jayson Tatum over Josh Jackson and Markelle Fultz, and to a lesser extent Smith, Fox, Isaac, Monk, and Markannen, was a critique of his previous drafts? What if this (and 2016) was a sign of Ainge's growth as a GM?

Most recognize that the greatest drafting mistake of the past 5 years (hindsight is 20/20) was Ainge not being willing to pull the trigger on Giannis. Instead, Ainge played it safe with a smart, efficient big from Gonzaga. There were reports leading up to the draft that Ainge really liked him, even comparing him to Scottie Pippen, but in the end, he couldn't pull the trigger.

2017 included several skilled (albeit lacking in some way) bigs, including Isaac and Markanen at the top of the draft. 2016 included Bender and Poeltl.

On the other side of things, he has always been attracted to competitive, tough-nosed guards/wings (maybe he sees himself in them?), from Allen to Rondo to West to Rozier to Smart. These guys are "his" kinds of picks. 2017's draft include Fox, Smith, Jackson, and Monk who all fit that type in different ways. 2016's draft included Dunn, Hield, and Murray who fit that build in different ways.

We know the story. Instead of picking his usual picks (competitive guards), and instead of selecting the "skilled" big man, Ainge went with the wing with the most size both years. One year, it was Jaylen Brown, who measured 6'7'' with a 7'1'' wingspan. The next year was Tatum, who measured 6'8.5'' with a 6'11'' wingspan.

My different take (even if it was not intentional) is that Ainge didn't want to miss out on the next great wing either year. He saw a bit of Giannis in both Brown and Tatum, and regardless of what any scouts or fans thought, he thought they both had the highest upside at the most important position in modern basketball.

Brown is probably done growing (rumors had it that he put on 1'' his rookie year). Tatum could cap out around 6'10''. Both guys can drive. Both guys can handle the ball. Both guys can shoot. Both guys use their length to be disruptive on defense.

Maybe Ainge regretted passing on Giannis, and saw a little bit of the upside of Giannis in Tatum. Maybe Ainge regretted drafting Olynyk, and therefore did not value Bender, Poeltl, Markannen, or Isaac as highly as others. Althouth Ainge likes competitive guards, maybe he has been slightly disappointed with Smart, particularly because he is going against so many good guards in the modern NBA. Maybe he thought their value has dropped due to market saturation; therefore, maybe he did not value Fultz, Fox, Murray, Smith, Monk, or Jackson as highly as he did before.

Maybe he learned. Maybe he grew as a GM. Maybe that's why he selected tall, lanky, competitive, smart, skilled wings.

Maybe ...

Supposedly, a large part of the reason for passiang on Giannis was his camp's hardline demand that they didn't want to go anywhere that he wouldn't start immediately.

[DefenseWinsChamps]

I think some of you guys might misinterpret what I'm saying here.

This is an angle or a way of looking at his drafting.

Its possible its right, but that is not necessarily the point.

I know the normal way of looking at the situation is that he honestly thought there was not much difference between the top 3-5 guys, and he thought he could get value (draft pick) while also picking the guy he preferred. I know that we also had a lot of guards, which made Ball and Fultz more unlikely.

Its an angle. I have no inside information. Its not a rumor. Its not alternative facts. Its looking at a sculpture from a different angle, or in different lights, or with a different understanding of what the sculpture may be, in order to understand it more and appreciate it. Its modern art.

As an angle, it was an intriguing idea to me. In that light it was exciting to see Ainge grow. With that view, I got more excited about the potential of Tatum. From that perspective, I have an increasing amount of trust in the Celtics' decision-making.

Of course it also may be completely false in a purely analytical sense, but its not like fans have inside information anyway. I'll never know if this view is actually wrong, because I'll never talk to Ainge to figure it out. Most of what we do as fans is conjecture. Most of what we know is "news" from "professionals" who have no information either.

I make no claims that it is truthful, because I cannot, because I have no information. However, I do think it is intriguing.

Danny's GMing is a piece of art that, from this angle, looks better than it did before.

[Ogaju]

Watching closeups of Tatum cup the ball on drives with his long, gangly arms surprised me with just how long he is. Then, I heard (somewhere?) that the Celtics don't think he is done growing. All of this got me thinking ...

What if Danny Ainge's drafting of Jayson Tatum over Josh Jackson and Markelle Fultz, and to a lesser extent Smith, Fox, Isaac, Monk, and Markannen, was a critique of his previous drafts? What if this (and 2016) was a sign of Ainge's growth as a GM?

Most recognize that the greatest drafting mistake of the past 5 years (hindsight is 20/20) was Ainge not being willing to pull the trigger on Giannis. Instead, Ainge played it safe with a smart, efficient big from Gonzaga. There were reports leading up to the draft that Ainge really liked him, even comparing him to Scottie Pippen, but in the end, he couldn't pull the trigger.

2017 included several skilled (albeit lacking in some way) bigs, including Isaac and Markanen at the top of the draft. 2016 included Bender and Poeltl.

On the other side of things, he has always been attracted to competitive, tough-nosed guards/wings (maybe he sees himself in them?), from Allen to Rondo to West to Rozier to Smart. These guys are "his" kinds of picks. 2017's draft include Fox, Smith, Jackson, and Monk who all fit that type in different ways. 2016's draft included Dunn, Hield, and Murray who fit that build in different ways.

We know the story. Instead of picking his usual picks (competitive guards), and instead of selecting the "skilled" big man, Ainge went with the wing with the most size both years. One year, it was Jaylen Brown, who measured 6'7'' with a 7'1'' wingspan. The next year was Tatum, who measured 6'8.5'' with a 6'11'' wingspan.

My different take (even if it was not intentional) is that Ainge didn't want to miss out on the next great wing either year. He saw a bit of Giannis in both Brown and Tatum, and regardless of what any scouts or fans thought, he thought they both had the highest upside at the most important position in modern basketball.

Brown is probably done growing (rumors had it that he put on 1'' his rookie year). Tatum could cap out around 6'10''. Both guys can drive. Both guys can handle the ball. Both guys can shoot. Both guys use their length to be disruptive on defense.

Maybe Ainge regretted passing on Giannis, and saw a little bit of the upside of Giannis in Tatum. Maybe Ainge regretted drafting Olynyk, and therefore did not value Bender, Poeltl, Markannen, or Isaac as highly as others. Althouth Ainge likes competitive guards, maybe he has been slightly disappointed with Smart, particularly because he is going against so many good guards in the modern NBA. Maybe he thought their value has dropped due to market saturation; therefore, maybe he did not value Fultz, Fox, Murray, Smith, Monk, or Jackson as highly as he did before.

Maybe he learned. Maybe he grew as a GM. Maybe that's why he selected tall, lanky, competitive, smart, skilled wings.

Maybe ...

I believe I have made this point more than once in the past, so count me as a believer. I believe that Ainge drafted Tatum hoping that he will be the next Giannis and that he largely regrets not pulling the trigger on Giannis.

[DefenseWinsChamps]

Ogaju, What about Tatum's game reminds you of Giannis?

[DooVoo]

Watching closeups of Tatum cup the ball on drives with his long, gangly arms surprised me with just how long he is. Then, I heard (somewhere?) that the Celtics don't think he is done growing. All of this got me thinking ...

What if Danny Ainge's drafting of Jayson Tatum over Josh Jackson and Markelle Fultz, and to a lesser extent Smith, Fox, Isaac, Monk, and Markannen, was a critique of his previous drafts? What if this (and 2016) was a sign of Ainge's growth as a GM?

Most recognize that the greatest drafting mistake of the past 5 years (hindsight is 20/20) was Ainge not being willing to pull the trigger on Giannis. Instead, Ainge played it safe with a smart, efficient big from Gonzaga. There were reports leading up to the draft that Ainge really liked him, even comparing him to Scottie Pippen, but in the end, he couldn't pull the trigger.

2017 included several skilled (albeit lacking in some way) bigs, including Isaac and Markanen at the top of the draft. 2016 included Bender and Poeltl.

On the other side of things, he has always been attracted to competitive, tough-nosed guards/wings (maybe he sees himself in them?), from Allen to Rondo to West to Rozier to Smart. These guys are "his" kinds of picks. 2017's draft include Fox, Smith, Jackson, and Monk who all fit that type in different ways. 2016's draft included Dunn, Hield, and Murray who fit that build in different ways.

We know the story. Instead of picking his usual picks (competitive guards), and instead of selecting the "skilled" big man, Ainge went with the wing with the most size both years. One year, it was Jaylen Brown, who measured 6'7'' with a 7'1'' wingspan. The next year was Tatum, who measured 6'8.5'' with a 6'11'' wingspan.

My different take (even if it was not intentional) is that Ainge didn't want to miss out on the next great wing either year. He saw a bit of Giannis in both Brown and Tatum, and regardless of what any scouts or fans thought, he thought they both had the highest upside at the most important position in modern basketball.

Brown is probably done growing (rumors had it that he put on 1'' his rookie year). Tatum could cap out around 6'10''. Both guys can drive. Both guys can handle the ball. Both guys can shoot. Both guys use their length to be disruptive on defense.

Maybe Ainge regretted passing on Giannis, and saw a little bit of the upside of Giannis in Tatum. Maybe Ainge regretted drafting Olynyk, and therefore did not value Bender, Poeltl, Markannen, or Isaac as highly as others. Althouth Ainge likes competitive guards, maybe he has been slightly disappointed with Smart, particularly because he is going against so many good guards in the modern NBA. Maybe he thought their value has dropped due to market saturation; therefore, maybe he did not value Fultz, Fox, Murray, Smith, Monk, or Jackson as highly as he did before.

Maybe he learned. Maybe he grew as a GM. Maybe that's why he selected tall, lanky, competitive, smart, skilled wings.

Maybe ...

I believe I have made this point more than once in the past, so count me as a believer. I believe that Ainge drafted Tatum hoping that he will be the next Giannis and that he largely regrets not pulling the trigger on Giannis.

That is just crazy. Tatum is nothing like Giannis. If you are going to compare him to someone he fits better with higher basketball IQ Carmelo Anthony. 14 teams passed on Giannis in 2013. Ainge is over it. The idea that he drafted Tatum because he regrets not taking Giannis is just silly. That is what fans worry about. He picked Tatum cause he had questions about Fultz and knew Tatum was probably the best player in the draft and he could trade down and get him.

Don't try and overthink things.

[JBcat]

I just want to say I’m jealous of the rumors Brown grew an inch last year, and Tatum could cap out at 6’10”.  I stopped growing my sophomore or maybe it was my freshman year of high school many moons ago. Haha

[miraclejohan]

I don't disagree, but it sounds like you're painting Danny as regretting not drafting Giannis. While this is likely true, it probably doesn't drive his basketball decisions as much as the fact that today's NBA and Brad's system both beg for a different type of player than Danny used to always draft (to your point, competitive guards and skilled bigs). 

I guess I'm asking as a chicken or the egg thing here:  which came first, Giannis or the new "position-less" NBA where the most valuable players need to be able to play/defend four or five positions?

[liam]

The thing I find amazing, and I've said it before, is that The Sixers gave up a future pick for a guy they would've gotten at 3. Everyone knew who the Lakers were taking and if The Celtics were willing to trade out of the one everyone Knew that Fultz was not their guy. I guess they made the trade to keep the Suns from jumping up to get Fultz but I think everyone knew that Jackson was their guy. Danny got an asset for basically nothing. It was one of his all time best moves.

[konkmv]

I say the Celtics needed a forward who could shoot... not point guards

[konkmv]

I am Greek I have seen Giannis a lot... the competition he Had on the second Greek league was to laugh... he was just a project then... the kid just worked very hard and had the physical tools... but he was a gamble at the time.. even for the Greek top teams who never made a move to get him... even now his shot is mediocre at least.. as a manager you could have guessed his length but not his speed or his ball handling... he will be one of the greatest of his generation but when he started it was just a possibility not a sure thing.... doncic has been praised more.... but I see another Toni kukoc in him... great but not better than Giannis

[jbp126]

Interesting take on Ainge’s growth as a GM and willingness to draft against his type but I don’t completely agree with the Giannis comparison. Tatum was considered to be a pretty polished offensive wing with some concerns about his defense, almost the opposite of Ainge’s apparent type and definitely a different type of prospect from Giannis who was considered pretty raw. I do agree with the possibility that he saw some untapped potential in Tatum a la Giannis.

I know everyone seemed to think the decision was between Tatum and Jackson (definitely Ainge’s type) but I always thought the other player he coveted was Dennis Smith Jr.