I'd put money on him being the most impactfull rookie on our team next year. His skill set and position are exactly what this team needs. Let's hope he pans out.
I mean, I am hopeful he will be better than expected, but that is a little outrageous. Tatum will no-doubt be the most impactful rookie or else Ainge will be the bearer of many thrown stones.
Don't think it is all that outrageous. Based on the needs of this team for a big that is a hustle garbage man type player, i.e grab rebounds, defend and make the shots that are manufactured by other players for him, he has a real chance to make an impact. Plus the fact that he is a "veteran" rookie at the age of 25 having played several pro seasons.
No doubt Tatum should be expected to be the better player and over time to far exceed the impact of Theis. But for next year only.... I'd say Theis has a good chance to impact this team towards wins more than Tatum does. Simply based on age, skill set and team needs.
As I've said, I actually think Theis can break into the rotation this season, but to say he has a good chance to impact wins more than Tatum either shows a lack of understanding of the word, 'good' 
or you have very little hope in Tatum producing much of anything this year.
I hope Theis surprises us all, but it is an uphill battle for him. Any team had the option to sign him and we were [easily] able to do so for the league minimum. Tatum was Ainge's #1 pick in the entire draft.
Instead of insulting my grasp of the English language 
, why don't you actually refute the reasons behind my statement?
Theis has a good, not great but not bad, better than average, chance to impact winning more than Tatum bc he is a) 6 or 7 years older and has been playing competitive basket ball longer. On a team w top end talent that has finals aspirations, that is significant. B) he fills a need for the team that Tatum does not. Tatum has shown to potentially have the most important skill in the NBA, he can create his own offense. The team has this in proven players; Irving, Hayward, Morris inefficiently, and to some extent Horford. That's 4 players at 4 different positions. The junkyard dog skill set that Theis potentially has can be attributed to Smart, a player that plays a different position.
I could be wrong but you haven't convinced me. Try again
I respectfully disagree with a lot of what you have written above. I do not believe that Theis fills a need more than Tatum does, and I do not believe that he is more likely to make an impact.
Firstly, you site Tatum's main talent as shot creation / scoring. This I agree with.
Secondly, you say we already have 3 or 4 guys who can create their own shots. This I disagree with. We have an elite shot creator in Kyrie, and an excellent shot creator in Hayward. I do not consider Morris to be a shot creator, and Horford is certainly
not a shot creator. Horford couldn't create his own offense if his life depended on it. Everything he gets these days is either wide open spot up jumpers or the occasional post ups when he gets caught on a mismatch against smaller guys. He's basically got all the shot creation skills of Kendrick Perkins (ok slight exaggeration, but you get my point).
But alas, let me entertain this point as it if were indeed true. Lets say you are right and we did have three shot creators already (sorry, I'm not putting Horford in there). Those three guys are all in the starting five. Who do we have in the second unit? Assuming Smart starts (I believe he will, that gives us:
Rozier
Brown
Tatum
Theis
Baynes
What other shot creators do we have on that list? I would say the closest would be Rozier, and he's still yet to prove he can produce with any real consistency. Brown can score, but he's not a shot creator. Baynes and Theis sure as hell are not shot creators.
While I'm sure the aim will be to try to always have one of Kyrie/Hayward on the court, that may not always be possible due to things like foul trouble, injuries (knock on wood), matchups, etc. We need a guy in our second unit who can step up and carry that unit offensively - somebody on that second unit who you can just give the ball to when the offense is stagnant, and he can make something happen.
Jayson Tatum is that guy, and his ability to carry the offense in stretches with his shot creation may very well prove absolutely crucial to us being able to allow guys like Hayward and Kyrie to be able to get a rest without having to worry about the entire offense falling apart.
That's before we even get in to the next key factor - closing. As Danny and Brad have said n the past, you can never have too many closers. When you are at the end of a close game playing against a great defensive team, the first thing every opponent is going to do is get a body on Kyrie and Hayward and try to shut those guys down. Now you obviously do everything you can to try to get the ball in to one of those guys regardless for that final shot, but if the play breaks down and you CAN'T get the ball to one of them, suddenly it becomes a completely gamechanger when you have a third/foruth guy like Tatum who can find ways to create space and to take (and make) difficult contested shots.
Now by comparison, what skills does Theis provide us that we need so critically? Ok he seems to be a decent rebounder, which is nice. But he still only averaged around 8 rebounds per 36 over in europe, and by the time he comes here against NBA size and athleticism he may struggle to get 7 a game - that's barely more then we can probably get from Tatum, and is likely a huge drop down from what we already would get from Baynes. He looks to be a decent rim protector - ok that is nice, but we already have Baynes and Horford so we are kinda ok there. Doesn't hurt to have extra backup sure, but we're mostly ok as it is. He can being toughness and energy - that's true, but we already have Rozier, Brown and Baynes who all seem to bring a lot of that as it is...plus Yabusele.
So while I can certainly see the value in Theis and his skill set, and I can see him being a potential contributor here - are the skills / talents he offers REALLY more important to the team then what Tatum could potentially offer? Of course it's up to debate, but I would say no.
I'd also say that the extra 4 or 5 years of pro experience with Theis is largely a non factor. He's got pro experience playing against guys (70% - 80% of whom) are probably not good enough to make it to the NBA. And yet against those guys he struggled to earn more than 20 MPG and didn't exactly put up crash hot numbers. Dragan Bender had the advantage of a year or two of euro experience before beiing drafted, how much did it help him last year? How much did it help Zizic in Summer League this year, when he was struggling to produce against D-League calibre talent despite his previous pro experience in Europe?
No disrespect to the European leagues, but they aren't the NBA. Jayson Tatum may have only played one year in college, but he played against guys like Lonzo Ball, Markelle Fultz, Josh Jackson - guys who are NBA calibre talents. It might take him a bit more time to get his body to NBA level, but that will likely be an adjustment for Theis too. I'm not convinced that those extra years of experience playing a bench role against second string euro talent will necessarily help him all that much in the NBA, to be completely honesty.
Now I may be wrong, because there are others (e.g. Saric) who did come in and play nicely straight away - but then Saric was a massively hyped prospect that scouts have been watching for years because is skill set was so well advertised, and for every Saric there are about a million Luigi Datome's, Shavlik Randolph's and Greg Steisma's.
So while it is certainly possible that Theis could make a real impact this year (and I hope he does) - think Tatum certainly has a better chance of making an impact on our wins.
Topic: Theis is Birdman with a shot!! (Read 13779 times)