Boston was NOT a bad defensive team last year - though a disappointment after the previous season. Could Sullinger really have had that big of an impact?
But two things about the most recent season:
1)
The Celtics were 12th last year, so, middle third. They were basically an average team - if you are calculating for the whole year. You might remember that Brad Stevens made a remark around New Year's (?) that they'd been so bad that no matter how much better they got they weren't likely to be one of the top teams. Jerebko was briefly in the starting lineup because of Stevens' complaint that his guys weren't staying in front of opponents. But as the season went on, they got better.
2)
Defense has four distinct areas - if you believe Dean Oliver: Opponent's eFG%; Defensive Rebound Rate; Opponent's Turnover Rate; and FT Makes/FG Attempt.
If you break down the Celtics' defense last year into those four areas, one thing stands out: Boston was fifth in Opponent's eFG%. That's really good! Combine that with the fact that they were 16th in Opponent's Turnover Rate and you can see that they were good at causing missed shots. They played physical to do that, one consequence of which was they fouled a lot and put opponents on the line: 23rd in the league.
If you have a tradeoff, the best thing to do well is be good at Opponent's eFG%. That's good news. The bad news was Defensive Rebounding Rate: 27th in the league. That was their downfall - they didn't finish enough good defensive possessions. The fact that they put opponents on the line a lot meant that their DRR stats were padded by easier FT rebounds.
AND giving up more offensive rebounds likely fattened the FT/FGA stat - you foul more when a big gets the ball under the basket.
Let's keep Offensive and Defensive rebounding separate. It confuses the issue to collapse them together.
The elephant in the room: it looks like defensive rebounding could easily be worse this season.
Kind of weird to keep seeing people undervalue Crowder's defense! He got the toughest cover every night, defensive rebounded at an impressive rate (and upped his game in that area when it was badly needed), and guarded both quicker and bigger players.
This season? A crapshoot at this point. The bigs rotation is thin, there are a lot of rookies, and no one stands out who can get a defensive rebound when you need one. Even Aron Baines was about on a par with Kelly Olynyk in that area last season, which was not bad but not the solution, even if he can get in for more than 16 minutes a game.
The offense should come together pretty quickly, on the other hand, and it says here that they won't really confront their mediocre defense until January, since their well-oiled offensive machine will outscore most opponents.
Mediocre defensive teams don't win championships.