Is shooting a problem?

[rayallen_35_24]

marcus morris and semi ojeleye says hello!

[CelticsElite]

Semi is an underrated shooter. Also  green is still available and we still have a roster spot

something tells me the team sees no need for his "shooting" considering we haven't signed him.

[Bucketgetter]

green is still available and we still have a roster spot

something tells me the team sees no need for his "shooting"

I don’t know why you feel the need to put shooting in parentheses for guy who shoots 36.1% from 3 for his career, and 35.1% from 3 last year.

[LilRip]

We are probably a worse shooting team than last year (we had a lot of shooters) but I expect our offense to get better because we have more playmakers now. Crowder and Bradley were sneaky good and KO was an X factor (not overly concerned about losing Jerebko and Amir's shooting).

But a lot is riding on Jaylen Brown/Smart/Tatum to be contributors aka not be a dead end on offense. I think they can be though. Hopefully they can convert the wide open shots created by the offense/playmakers.

[Alleyoopster]

We are probably a worse shooting team than last year (we had a lot of shooters) but I expect our offense to get better because we have more playmakers now. Crowder and Bradley were sneaky good and KO was an X factor (not overly concerned about losing Jerebko and Amir's shooting).

But a lot is riding on Jaylen Brown/Smart/Tatum to be contributors aka not be a dead end on offense. I think they can be though. Hopefully they can convert the wide open shots created by the offense/playmakers.

Have to agree with you here. Losing KO was big. During the last part of the year it seemed that almost every game he got 3 or 4 easy baskets near the hoop. With all of Danny's wizardry I was surprised he didn't find a way to sign KO. 

[mctyson]

I've seen a few posts indicating they thought our shooting got better. I'm not sure if that's true.

Out:

IT: 3.2 3PTM; .546 eFG%
Bradley: 2.0 3PTM; .533 eFG%
Jae: 2.2 3PTM; .572 eFG%
Kelly: 0.9 3PTM; .579 eFG%
Green: 0.8 3PTM; .494 eFG%
Jerebko: 0.6 3PTM; .521 eFG%
Amir: 0.3 3PTM; .612 eFG%

In:

Kyrie: 2.5 3PTM; .535 eFG%
Hayward: 2.0 3PTM; .536 eFG%
Morris: 1.5 3PTM; .477 eFG%
Tatum: 1.4 3PTM; .507 eFG% (college)

We'll be losing a lot of efficiency and outside shooting, and it won't all be made up by Kyrie and Hayward. Is this a worry, or will guys like Morris, Tatum, Smart and Jaylen step up?

I am worried about losing ITs efficiency but we gained Hayward's who averages almost 6 FTs a game.

[Celtics4ever]

It is a problem for a few guys on the roster, hopefully, they have been working on their games.

[chambers]

Need to see their 3p FG% to get a better idea.

Would it be fair to say that most of these guys will get more wide open looks in a solid ball movement offense?

[GreenWarrior]

what I constantly have to remind this board of is the fact that these stats you guys love to build your hopes n' dreams and delusions of grandeur on does not show against who or when these FG percentages come into play.

for example, for the most part the stats show Avery Bradley was a pretty good shooter. what it doesn't show is the shots he didn't make through the course of a single game. which typically put us in a hole and once we were out of it and the pressure was off his shooting came back when the game was essentially over and he ended up with a decent shooting percentage.

you guys need a new way of determining what guys you fall in love with and maybe...I don't know actually watch a game and see if a guy is actually good.

the truth is for a large portion of his career AB took bad shots, he'd pull up and shoot a contested mid-range shot early in the shot clock - a shot we could get anytime we wanted. Jae Crowder continued this tradition... on his way out the door.

the proof in what I say is the fact that they aren't here any more.

I think your observations are pretty off here.

For instance, this idea that AB boosted his shooting percentage in blowout losses has no basis in reality. He was a very good shooter in both wins and losses, but was better in wins.

An outstanding three point shooter is still going to miss roughly 60% of his outside shots.

ok, so the only thing wrong with my observation was that I left out that he would do the same thing in wins, thanks for reminding me.

[Roy H.]

what I constantly have to remind this board of is the fact that these stats you guys love to build your hopes n' dreams and delusions of grandeur on does not show against who or when these FG percentages come into play.

for example, for the most part the stats show Avery Bradley was a pretty good shooter. what it doesn't show is the shots he didn't make through the course of a single game. which typically put us in a hole and once we were out of it and the pressure was off his shooting came back when the game was essentially over and he ended up with a decent shooting percentage.

you guys need a new way of determining what guys you fall in love with and maybe...I don't know actually watch a game and see if a guy is actually good.

the truth is for a large portion of his career AB took bad shots, he'd pull up and shoot a contested mid-range shot early in the shot clock - a shot we could get anytime we wanted. Jae Crowder continued this tradition... on his way out the door.

the proof in what I say is the fact that they aren't here any more.

I think your observations are pretty off here.

For instance, this idea that AB boosted his shooting percentage in blowout losses has no basis in reality. He was a very good shooter in both wins and losses, but was better in wins.

An outstanding three point shooter is still going to miss roughly 60% of his outside shots.

ok, so the only thing wrong with my observation was that I left out that he would do the same thing in wins, thanks for reminding me.

Well, no. Pretty much every single observation you made was off. Avery and Jae were extremely good shooters last season. Your anecdotal observations have no value, because they're contradicted by actual evidence.

As for your last sentence, does anybody dispute that Danny loved AB and Jae? If there was no salary cap / salary matching rules, they'd both still be here.

[action781]

I've seen a few posts indicating they thought our shooting got better. I'm not sure if that's true.

Out:

IT: 3.2 3PTM; .546 eFG%
Bradley: 2.0 3PTM; .533 eFG%
Jae: 2.2 3PTM; .572 eFG%
Kelly: 0.9 3PTM; .579 eFG%
Green: 0.8 3PTM; .494 eFG%
Jerebko: 0.6 3PTM; .521 eFG%
Amir: 0.3 3PTM; .612 eFG%

In:

Kyrie: 2.5 3PTM; .535 eFG%
Hayward: 2.0 3PTM; .536 eFG%
Morris: 1.5 3PTM; .477 eFG%
Tatum: 1.4 3PTM; .507 eFG% (college)

We'll be losing a lot of efficiency and outside shooting, and it won't all be made up by Kyrie and Hayward. Is this a worry, or will guys like Morris, Tatum, Smart and Jaylen step up?

PG:  Going from IT to Kyrie won't affect our outside shooting much. (0)
SG:  Going from Bradley to Jaylen will be a loss for us. (-)
SF:  Going from Crowder to Hayward is either a wash or gain for us. (0)
PF: Going from Morris to Amir will be a significant addition to our outside shooting (+)

Guard bench:  no real change with Rozier + Smart still here
Wing bench:  Jerebko and Gerald Green's combined 1.0 3PTM in 21.5 minutes per game (when you consider their total stats divided by 82) will likely be absorbed by Tatum which is probably a net wash. (0)
Frontcourt bench:  Losing Olynyk without a reliable frontcourt shooter is a significant loss. (-)

I'd say overall, our shooting is slightly worse on paper.

What gives me hope is that Avery was a poor shooter coming into the league but developed into a good spot up shooter.  I saw positive strides in Jaylen's outside shot of the course of just his rookie season which gives me hope that he can develop similarly to Avery as a spot up shooter.

[spikelovetheCelts]

Gauging this is hard. Like other posters have said all the others played in different systems. Horford will have more open loos too. Hayward will be open more with KI on the team. Smart has been working on his shot. I think we will have a better O but less full court D. But a Korver type would be helpful. Anthony Morrow I think is still out there. I look forward to seeing this team in Brad's system.

[Roy H.]

CelticsHub did an analysis on how our various pieces might fit. Here's the key part for this thread:

Challenge: Spacing

If you scroll back up through the player comps and focus on the shot charts you’ll see that all of them have the new player taking more of their shots from mid-range than the departing one did. Last season’s team were third in the league in percentage of shots taken from three and sixth lowest in percent taken from mid-range. To match that, Brad Stevens will have to change the style of multiple players. Kyrie and Hayward should be able to stretch out relatively easily; both are very good 3PT shooters.

The role players are where this is a major issue. Aron Baynes has taken seven three pointers in his career; he is not going to move behind the line. Marcus Morris can move back out of mid-range and focus on taking more of the shots that Jae used to, but he’s an average 3PT shooter for his career and only made 33% from the arc last season. We don’t know when Tatum will get comfortable out there.

Crowder, Olynyk, and Johnson were all above average 3PT shooters and if you add Jerebko into the mix the loss gets even worse. It’s tempting to think that a team with Irving, Hayward, and Horford can’t suffer from spacing issues but operating space comes from the fourth and fifth guys on the court, not the ones around the ball. This is a place were Semi Ojeleye might be able to muscle his way into a regular role. He showed in Summer League that he understands what 3-and-D means; his defensive versatility has been called out by Stevens but it might be his ability to stand 24′ from the hoop and make stand-still shots that gets him on the floor.

Spacing would be an issue just based on the changes being made, but three of the four returning players compound it. No one respects Marcus Smart’s shot. Terry Rozier made shots in the playoffs but he has a long way to go before defenders fear him. Jaylen Brown has showed some flashes, particularly from the right corner, but until he goes a few months actually making his looks the defense is going to be willing to sag off him to clog things up for Irving and Hayward.

There’s no easy fix here. The team can play a system that demands players move behind the line more often than they’ve been used to, but that also has to translate into made shots and at the moment we don’t know if that will happen.

http://www.celticshub.com/2017/09/03/fitting-new-look-celtics-together/

[chambers]

Anyone wanna post last years 3 point shooting %'s for the playoff rotation vs this years probably 7 or 8 man playoff rotation?

[GreenShooter]

We could really use a shooter. I'm not expecting much from Smart in that area but I am expecting big improvement from Jaylen Brown. He'll fill the Jae roll nicely I would think. Not really much coming off the bench. I'm sure DA will be looking for someone to fill that role. Maybe bring Gerald Green back. Just a thought.