Marcus was the 6th pick of the 2014 draft. The 6th pick of the 2013 draft was Nerlens Noel, another defensive-minded, offensively-challenged player with some upside.
Supposedly Noel turned down a 4yr/$70M deal from the Mavs. Almost everyone thinks he was an idiot for turning that down (fans and media). I think Smart would grab that in a heartbeat. So let's say that's the high end of an offer range, although most would think Danny was overpaying in that case. The Mavs don't have the same roster makeup as the C's so they could afford to gamble on that deal.
There's also no way he'd get a max offer like #3 2013 pick Otto Porter got (4/104).
So Marcus will probably be offered something between 4/36 and 4/70 if I had to guess. At what point is that an overpay and at what point does he just laugh and toss the offer sheet away?
I think he declines immediately anything under 4/44. He'd rather gamble on himself. As he'd only "lose" a few million even with a sub-par year, probably netting a minimum of 4/40.
I also think Danny wouldn't risk luxury tax scenarios so he'd at a max offer 4/56. That's a max. $14M/yr average. Marcus probably snaps that up quickly. The odds of him having a gangbuster year might only lead to a 4/60. So take the $56M bird in hand.
But knowing Danny, he wouldn't offer his max at first, before Smart's final year of his rookie deal. So I'd guess he might meet right in the middle of a total contract value of $44M (min Smart would consider) and $56M (max Danny would actually pay next summer) and offer 4yrs/$50M.
Same contract Kelly O got (and he was drafted much lower than Smart). I'd offer it if I were Danny. And I'd take it if I were Smart (or smart).
You can't value Smart the same as Noel. Good defensive bigs that can run the floor and finish around the rim are much more highly valued than defensive specialist guards that are horribly inefficient offensively. Yes, Noel is offensively challenged but at least he is mediocre efficient.
I also think Noel is a better defensive player, though I know thats probably sacrilege to say on this board.
He's not even a great finisher. Career 51% shooter. Amir Johnson and Kelly Olynyk both had better shooting % at the rim last year.
He has increased his FG% each year he has been in the league. Last year his FG% was 59.5% and his TS% was 62.2%. From inside 3 feet he finished at 71%. Its misleading not to mention his year by year improvement in shooting and finishing and just state his career average.
In comparison, Smart hasn't shown one bit of progression in his shooting stats and they are historically bad. Hence why I think its wrong to compare Nerlens and Smart as comparable salaries. Nerlens has progressed and gotten to be decent at least. Marcus...no progress. Nerlens, IMO is the better defender and an excellent rim protector. Nerlens is a better rebounder than Smart is a passer.
If Smart doesn't improve his shooting, I just don't see any team offering Smart what Dallas offered Noel. Not even close to that number. And it doesn't matter that they were both sixth picks in their respective drafts.
262 3pt shots contested
234 deflections
42.6% opponent shooting (Bradley was 46.5%)
517 contested shots (20% more than Bradley, adjusted for games)
5th in the league in charges drawn
So let's do some math. Marcus is worth about 10 extra possessions per game. Possessions were worth 1.1 points last year. Marcus made 1.2 3pointers on 4.2 attempts (28.3%). If he improves his shooting to a healthy 35% it would yield 0.81 extra points per game. Less than 1 point.
It literally does not matter if he clanks 3's for the rest of his career. That's why Stevens plays him 30mpg and almost every crunch time minute.
I love the sentiment and agree. Marcus makes winning plays.
I'm just wondering, how is Marcus worth about 10 extra possessions per game?
It's an approximation that I won't be able to prove, but per game...
2 steals
3 deflections
6.5 contested shots
1 loose ball recovered
.3 charges drawn
maybe 1-3 stops over a replacement level defender
boxes out better than anyone on the roster
0.4 blocks
4 rebounds (15th among PG's)
AND last but not least, all the savvy plays he makes that don't show up anywhere. Baiting people into fouls. Being the enforcer. Injecting energy into our defense like an adrenaline shot. Taking opponents out of their game. Diving for loose balls like Bird or Cowens, f the consequences. He severely dislocated his finger diving for a ball... IN SUMMER LEAGUE!
I've actually recorded games where I noted him gaining 15 extra possessions. 10 is probably the high side of average.