The fact that after this season we would have had to sign IT to a $30m max extension, which would have left is with about $85m worth of cap space committed to the trio of Thomas, Hayward and Horford - a trio that simply is not good enough to forge a contender. With that trio under contract we'd have had zero cap flexibility for the next 3-4 years and would never get past the ECF.
Kyrie on the other hand is locked in to around $18m over the next 2-3 years, which is much more flexible then the ~$30m we'd be paying Thomas, and that $12M or so saving may be enough to allow is a bit of flexibility to add other talent - in trades at the very least.
Kyrie is already a slightly better overall player then Thomas is and, at 25 years of age, he still has room to improve. The fact that he's 6'4" and that his game is more dependant on skill than athleticism, means that his game should age well...as opposed to Thomas who will likely drop off a cliff as soon as he starts losing his athleticism - and at 28, will likely start happening in the next 1-3 years). By that time Kyrie will only just be reaching his prime years and should be at his best...
That's assuming IT even sticks aound, Cleveland may well elect not to re-sign him.
Though I agree with almost everything you wrote, I don't think it is a sure thing Thomas will get the max. He definitely very much wants it, but I wonder if any team would be crazy enough to give it to him considering he will be 29 next year. If he repeats the same year he had last season and shows recovery from the hip, maybe he could get something like 4yr/100 from a bad team. A good, well-run team would probably not go over 3 years with any offer, with the AAV being a little higher.
Now that he's on the Cavs, maybe LeBron will give his numbers a little boost. I still think that it will be hard for him to stay fresh an entire year, however, especially now that LeBron has to pace himself as well.
Can you name me an NBA player from the past 10 years who has:
* Finished top 3 in scoring
* Made an All-Star team
* Led his team to a #1 seed in the regular season
* Led his team to the conference finals
All in the same year...and then didn't get a max contract after that?
I honestly can't think of anybody who has even finished top 5 in scoring and not gotten a max afterwards.
There are going to be teams out there who are desperate for a go-to scorer who can cdominate fourth quarters and lose out games - those teams will be willing to pay max money for a guy like Thomas. If that team happens to also have a need for a PG (or primary ball handler) then that will only solidify their desire to do so.
Not every team will pay max money for Thomas, but many will.
Look at the Celtics. Danny Ainge signed to fringe all-stars (Hayward and Horford) and gave max contracts to both of them. One of those guys was a 30 year old "jack of all trades, master of none" super role player. The other is an somewhat one dimensional player who is very good on offense but nothing particularly special at anything else.
I would give a max to Thomas before I'd give one to Horford. I'd potentially even give one to Thomas before I'd give one to Hayward - close call, but I'd probably lean towards Hayward.