Where do the remaining free agents end up?

[TheSundanceKid]

...
Welcome to the new reality.  Many mid-tier players will have to settle for significantly less than they expect.

There was just so much money out there, that it was hard to pass up the chance to be a FA.  Same thing goes for the guys trying to make a comeback into the NBA.  The money that's available makes it worth a shot.  Unfortunately, those remaining are just not good enough for the big bucks; teams are not going to spend just for the sake of using cap space.  I think's it's interesting that Kelly Olynyk got a decent-sized contract, but Noel is still out there.

I think it's a sign that Kelly Olynyk is a better player than Noel. Personally I don't think it's even close, Kelly is a much better player than Noel. The only reason Noel isn't universally seen as a room exception player is his age and the fact he was once a touted lottery pick, it takes time for people to let go of that.

That's not really true. In Noel's first 2 seasons, he averaged 10 and 8 with 1.8 steals and 1.7 blocks per game. He's a terrific athlete who still has DPOY potential with his athleticism and versatility.

The last 2 seasons haven't been as good for Nerlens and maybe its because he's just not going to be a starter level NBA player but it can also be explained away pretty easily by injuries, fit, and the whole Philadelphia circumstance.

Noel is a defensive energy big. He'll never be a focus on offense but he can make a difference on defence. Agreed?

If we look at the defensive focused bigs in the league at the moment they are separated roughly into three categories:
1) The max guys
2) Grossly overpaid
3) The min to mid exception players

In category 1 we have guys like Drummond, Whiteside, Jordan, Gobert. Guys who are way above Noel's level of play. They will cause matchup problems that Noel just can't and importantly they can match up with each other in a way Noel can't.

In category 2 we have guys like Howard, imo Adams, Noah, Mahinmi, Thompson, R Lopez and Chandler. Most of these contracts were handed out in the cap boom period and are coming back to bite teams.

In category 3 we have guys like, Dedmon, Baynes, Marjanovic and Pachulia, along with guys like McGee for the min in recent years.

There is very little in terms of middle ground for these kind of players. The centers earning over $10m that aren't overpaid are guys like Gortat who can play both ends. So unless you can prove yourself to be at that very high level of play then you get squeezed a lot. Noel hasn't proved he is near that level and so he's going to have to accept less than he thinks. If I was too harsh in saying he's a room exception player then I don't think I'm too harsh in thinking he'll get less than $10m. Else he'll be overpaid based on the current market.

Edit: Here's the Spotrac data I was looking at for contracts in case you wanted to look.

http://www.spotrac.com/nba/rankings/cap-hit/center/

[jambr380]

There is very little in terms of middle ground for these kind of players. The centers earning over $10m that aren't overpaid are guys like Gortat who can play both ends. So unless you can prove yourself to be at that very high level of play then you get squeezed a lot. Noel hasn't proved he is near that level and so he's going to have to accept less than he thinks. If I was too harsh in saying he's a room exception player then I don't think I'm too harsh in thinking he'll get less than $10m. Else he'll be overpaid based on the current market.

There were apparently rumors that the opening offer from Dallas was between $12-15M/yr, but Noel wants more of a Steven Adams deal. That's not exactly a room exception contract. That is probably where they will settle, but it will probably pay out a while longer.

[Surferdad]

...
Welcome to the new reality.  Many mid-tier players will have to settle for significantly less than they expect.

There was just so much money out there, that it was hard to pass up the chance to be a FA.  Same thing goes for the guys trying to make a comeback into the NBA.  The money that's available makes it worth a shot.  Unfortunately, those remaining are just not good enough for the big bucks; teams are not going to spend just for the sake of using cap space.  I think's it's interesting that Kelly Olynyk got a decent-sized contract, but Noel is still out there.

I think it's a sign that Kelly Olynyk is a better player than Noel. Personally I don't think it's even close, Kelly is a much better player than Noel. The only reason Noel isn't universally seen as a room exception player is his age and the fact he was once a touted lottery pick, it takes time for people to let go of that.

That's not really true. In Noel's first 2 seasons, he averaged 10 and 8 with 1.8 steals and 1.7 blocks per game. He's a terrific athlete who still has DPOY potential with his athleticism and versatility.

The last 2 seasons haven't been as good for Nerlens and maybe its because he's just not going to be a starter level NBA player but it can also be explained away pretty easily by injuries, fit, and the whole Philadelphia circumstance.

Noel is a defensive energy big. He'll never be a focus on offense but he can make a difference on defence. Agreed?

If we look at the defensive focused bigs in the league at the moment they are separated roughly into three categories:
1) The max guys
2) Grossly overpaid
3) The min to mid exception players

In category 1 we have guys like Drummond, Whiteside, Jordan, Gobert. Guys who are way above Noel's level of play. They will cause matchup problems that Noel just can't and importantly they can match up with each other in a way Noel can't.

In category 2 we have guys like Howard, imo Adams, Noah, Mahinmi, Thompson, R Lopez and Chandler. Most of these contracts were handed out in the cap boom period and are coming back to bite teams.

In category 3 we have guys like, Dedmon, Baynes, Marjanovic and Pachulia, along with guys like McGee for the min in recent years.

There is very little in terms of middle ground for these kind of players. The centers earning over $10m that aren't overpaid are guys like Gortat who can play both ends. So unless you can prove yourself to be at that very high level of play then you get squeezed a lot. Noel hasn't proved he is near that level and so he's going to have to accept less than he thinks. If I was too harsh in saying he's a room exception player then I don't think I'm too harsh in thinking he'll get less than $10m. Else he'll be overpaid based on the current market.

Edit: Here's the Spotrac data I was looking at for contracts in case you wanted to look.

http://www.spotrac.com/nba/rankings/cap-hit/center/

Very nice analysis Sundance.  For completeness sake, I suppose we should put Al Horford in Category 1, correct? 

Man I would really rather have Noel than Baynes as the backup center. Oh well.

[jay]

A lot of the teams with cap space don't have much.  Atlanta only has $6.1 million in space, Brooklyn only has $6.6 million.  Neither is enough to entice any of those players to sign a long-term deal.  Indiana is at $7.7 million.

The only teams with enough space to actually present an offer worth signing to any of these players are Chicago, Dallas, Philly, and Phoenix.  And Dallas might have to choose between Noel and another player on the list.

My thinking is maybe Green signs a one year deal for $6 million in Atlanta (who lost Millsap) or back with Memphis, essentially betting on himself to earn a bigger contract next summer.

Same with Indiana (who lost George) - or Denver (who lost Gallo) - they could give Shabazz a one year deal for 4,5, or 6 million and maybe he could earn a bigger contract. He's not near the player those guys are but he could provide some bench scoring behind Lance Stephenson in Indy or behind Wilson Chandler in Denver.

[saltlover]

A lot of the teams with cap space don't have much.  Atlanta only has $6.1 million in space, Brooklyn only has $6.6 million.  Neither is enough to entice any of those players to sign a long-term deal.  Indiana is at $7.7 million.

The only teams with enough space to actually present an offer worth signing to any of these players are Chicago, Dallas, Philly, and Phoenix.  And Dallas might have to choose between Noel and another player on the list.

My thinking is maybe Green signs a one year deal for $6 million in Atlanta (who lost Millsap) or back with Memphis, essentially betting on himself to earn a bigger contract next summer.

Same with Indiana (who lost George) - or Denver (who lost Gallo) - they could give Shabazz a one year deal for 4,5, or 6 million and maybe he could earn a bigger contract. He's not near the player those guys are but he could provide some bench scoring behind Lance Stephenson in Indy or behind Wilson Chandler in Denver.

Restricted free agents cannot be signed to a deal for fewer than two years except by their current team.  So Green will not be agreeing to a one year deal (nor will Noel, Len, or any other RFA).  Shabazz seems to have missed out completely, and there didn't seem to be much interest in him, as he was unrestricted beginning July 2nd.  (I've never been a fan myself.)

[TheSundanceKid]

Very nice analysis Sundance.  For completeness sake, I suppose we should put Al Horford in Category 1, correct? 

Man I would really rather have Noel than Baynes as the backup center. Oh well.

So I was just looking at the defensive centers as opposed to the 2 way guys like Horford, Cousins, Towns etc as a comparison for Noel. I think the market has changed dramatically for centers in the last 5 years, moreso than any other position. You still have the elite guys who command the max, whether that be defensive types like Gobert or more rounded guys like Towns or Embiid in the future, or a vet like Horford. Once you get out of that elite circle you see a big drop off in value, some guys get paid a lot but it tends to be an overpay for their talent.

I guess what I mean is there is no center version of Avery Bradley. A guy who isn't a max player but is definitely worth na lot of money. Jeff Teague just got $15m and he's definitely not in the top tier of point guards. The difference for centers is the 'middle class's is getting squashed because you are either a difference maker or a defensive specialist, there's much less of a scale.

Personally I long for a guy like Okafor to come and change the focus, dominate inside and force teams to react but in reality that's not going to happen anytime soon, not until another Shaq comes along

[Surferdad]

Very nice analysis Sundance.  For completeness sake, I suppose we should put Al Horford in Category 1, correct? 

Man I would really rather have Noel than Baynes as the backup center. Oh well.

So I was just looking at the defensive centers as opposed to the 2 way guys like Horford, Cousins, Towns etc as a comparison for Noel. I think the market has changed dramatically for centers in the last 5 years, moreso than any other position. You still have the elite guys who command the max, whether that be defensive types like Gobert or more rounded guys like Towns or Embiid in the future, or a vet like Horford. Once you get out of that elite circle you see a big drop off in value, some guys get paid a lot but it tends to be an overpay for their talent.

I guess what I mean is there is no center version of Avery Bradley. A guy who isn't a max player but is definitely worth na lot of money. Jeff Teague just got $15m and he's definitely not in the top tier of point guards. The difference for centers is the 'middle class's is getting squashed because you are either a difference maker or a defensive specialist, there's much less of a scale.

Personally I long for a guy like Okafor to come and change the focus, dominate inside and force teams to react but in reality that's not going to happen anytime soon, not until another Shaq comes along

C's could have had him, rather easily, so there's a reason it didn't happen.  
In any case, I do like the idea of having a backup center who is a specialist, either offensively (Okafor) or defensively (Noel) and force the other teams to make an adjustment.  Obviously your starter in a two-way player but you may not have that luxury in a backup center.

[TheSundanceKid]

Very nice analysis Sundance.  For completeness sake, I suppose we should put Al Horford in Category 1, correct? 

Man I would really rather have Noel than Baynes as the backup center. Oh well.

So I was just looking at the defensive centers as opposed to the 2 way guys like Horford, Cousins, Towns etc as a comparison for Noel. I think the market has changed dramatically for centers in the last 5 years, moreso than any other position. You still have the elite guys who command the max, whether that be defensive types like Gobert or more rounded guys like Towns or Embiid in the future, or a vet like Horford. Once you get out of that elite circle you see a big drop off in value, some guys get paid a lot but it tends to be an overpay for their talent.

I guess what I mean is there is no center version of Avery Bradley. A guy who isn't a max player but is definitely worth na lot of money. Jeff Teague just got $15m and he's definitely not in the top tier of point guards. The difference for centers is the 'middle class's is getting squashed because you are either a difference maker or a defensive specialist, there's much less of a scale.

Personally I long for a guy like Okafor to come and change the focus, dominate inside and force teams to react but in reality that's not going to happen anytime soon, not until another Shaq comes along

C's could have had him, rather easily, so there's a reason it didn't happen.  
In any case, I do like the idea of having a backup center who is a specialist, either offensively (Okafor) or defensively (Noel) and force the other teams to make an adjustment.  Obviously your starter in a two-way player but you may not have that luxury in a backup center.

Lol yeah you are right, I guess I should have said a guy who fulfills the potential he was said to have

[Big333223]

Noel is a defensive energy big. He'll never be a focus on offense but he can make a difference on defence. Agreed?

If we look at the defensive focused bigs in the league at the moment they are separated roughly into three categories:
1) The max guys
2) Grossly overpaid
3) The min to mid exception players

In category 1 we have guys like Drummond, Whiteside, Jordan, Gobert. Guys who are way above Noel's level of play. They will cause matchup problems that Noel just can't and importantly they can match up with each other in a way Noel can't.

In category 2 we have guys like Howard, imo Adams, Noah, Mahinmi, Thompson, R Lopez and Chandler. Most of these contracts were handed out in the cap boom period and are coming back to bite teams.

In category 3 we have guys like, Dedmon, Baynes, Marjanovic and Pachulia, along with guys like McGee for the min in recent years.

There is very little in terms of middle ground for these kind of players. The centers earning over $10m that aren't overpaid are guys like Gortat who can play both ends. So unless you can prove yourself to be at that very high level of play then you get squeezed a lot. Noel hasn't proved he is near that level and so he's going to have to accept less than he thinks. If I was too harsh in saying he's a room exception player then I don't think I'm too harsh in thinking he'll get less than $10m. Else he'll be overpaid based on the current market.

Edit: Here's the Spotrac data I was looking at for contracts in case you wanted to look.

http://www.spotrac.com/nba/rankings/cap-hit/center/

Yeah, we agree that Noel's major impact is going to be on defense and he'll never be the focus of an offense.

But the thing that makes him different from all of the guys you mentioned if his versatility on defense. Not only can he protect the rim but he can switch onto any position needed. He's also still incredibly athletic and capable of finishing around the rim so he'll be able to fill a role on offense.

I'm not saying he's going to be an all star this season but he has DPOY potential in him and I'd definitely take him over Marcin Gortat, who can protect the rim but looked like a clown trying to guard Al Horford on the perimeter in the playoffs last year and isn't any more capable of a scorer than Noel.

[TheSundanceKid]

Noel is a defensive energy big. He'll never be a focus on offense but he can make a difference on defence. Agreed?

If we look at the defensive focused bigs in the league at the moment they are separated roughly into three categories:
1) The max guys
2) Grossly overpaid
3) The min to mid exception players

In category 1 we have guys like Drummond, Whiteside, Jordan, Gobert. Guys who are way above Noel's level of play. They will cause matchup problems that Noel just can't and importantly they can match up with each other in a way Noel can't.

In category 2 we have guys like Howard, imo Adams, Noah, Mahinmi, Thompson, R Lopez and Chandler. Most of these contracts were handed out in the cap boom period and are coming back to bite teams.

In category 3 we have guys like, Dedmon, Baynes, Marjanovic and Pachulia, along with guys like McGee for the min in recent years.

There is very little in terms of middle ground for these kind of players. The centers earning over $10m that aren't overpaid are guys like Gortat who can play both ends. So unless you can prove yourself to be at that very high level of play then you get squeezed a lot. Noel hasn't proved he is near that level and so he's going to have to accept less than he thinks. If I was too harsh in saying he's a room exception player then I don't think I'm too harsh in thinking he'll get less than $10m. Else he'll be overpaid based on the current market.

Edit: Here's the Spotrac data I was looking at for contracts in case you wanted to look.

http://www.spotrac.com/nba/rankings/cap-hit/center/

Yeah, we agree that Noel's major impact is going to be on defense and he'll never be the focus of an offense.

But the thing that makes him different from all of the guys you mentioned if his versatility on defense. Not only can he protect the rim but he can switch onto any position needed. He's also still incredibly athletic and capable of finishing around the rim so he'll be able to fill a role on offense.

I'm not saying he's going to be an all star this season but he has DPOY potential in him and I'd definitely take him over Marcin Gortat, who can protect the rim but looked like a clown trying to guard Al Horford on the perimeter in the playoffs last year and isn't any more capable of a scorer than Noel.

See this is what I disagree with. He can step out onto the perimeter but he is not a capable defender against guards or quicker wings. Nor can he stretch the defence. Draymond Green is the type of big that can do those things and he is worth max money.

Gortat has a much better offensive game than Noel, he has a body that can stand up to the bigger centers in the game and he is solid at protecting the rim. Put Noel against him and Gortat would easily win the matchup. Horford did outplay him in the playoffs, he'd outplay Noel as well, he's a top 5 center in the league imo. Horford can stretch the defence, keeps his hands high on the perimeter and facilitates like few other big men.

To get paid as a big man you have to excel in 2 or 3 areas. As I've said there is very little in terms of a middle class as well. Teams choose to invest on the perimeter instead. The teams that overspend on big men hamstring their chances. I think the Mavs know this and that is why they are squeezing him.

[Big333223]

Noel is a defensive energy big. He'll never be a focus on offense but he can make a difference on defence. Agreed?

If we look at the defensive focused bigs in the league at the moment they are separated roughly into three categories:
1) The max guys
2) Grossly overpaid
3) The min to mid exception players

In category 1 we have guys like Drummond, Whiteside, Jordan, Gobert. Guys who are way above Noel's level of play. They will cause matchup problems that Noel just can't and importantly they can match up with each other in a way Noel can't.

In category 2 we have guys like Howard, imo Adams, Noah, Mahinmi, Thompson, R Lopez and Chandler. Most of these contracts were handed out in the cap boom period and are coming back to bite teams.

In category 3 we have guys like, Dedmon, Baynes, Marjanovic and Pachulia, along with guys like McGee for the min in recent years.

There is very little in terms of middle ground for these kind of players. The centers earning over $10m that aren't overpaid are guys like Gortat who can play both ends. So unless you can prove yourself to be at that very high level of play then you get squeezed a lot. Noel hasn't proved he is near that level and so he's going to have to accept less than he thinks. If I was too harsh in saying he's a room exception player then I don't think I'm too harsh in thinking he'll get less than $10m. Else he'll be overpaid based on the current market.

Edit: Here's the Spotrac data I was looking at for contracts in case you wanted to look.

http://www.spotrac.com/nba/rankings/cap-hit/center/

Yeah, we agree that Noel's major impact is going to be on defense and he'll never be the focus of an offense.

But the thing that makes him different from all of the guys you mentioned if his versatility on defense. Not only can he protect the rim but he can switch onto any position needed. He's also still incredibly athletic and capable of finishing around the rim so he'll be able to fill a role on offense.

I'm not saying he's going to be an all star this season but he has DPOY potential in him and I'd definitely take him over Marcin Gortat, who can protect the rim but looked like a clown trying to guard Al Horford on the perimeter in the playoffs last year and isn't any more capable of a scorer than Noel.

See this is what I disagree with. He can step out onto the perimeter but he is not a capable defender against guards or quicker wings. Nor can he stretch the defence. Draymond Green is the type of big that can do those things and he is worth max money.

Gortat has a much better offensive game than Noel, he has a body that can stand up to the bigger centers in the game and he is solid at protecting the rim. Put Noel against him and Gortat would easily win the matchup. Horford did outplay him in the playoffs, he'd outplay Noel as well, he's a top 5 center in the league imo. Horford can stretch the defence, keeps his hands high on the perimeter and facilitates like few other big men.

To get paid as a big man you have to excel in 2 or 3 areas. As I've said there is very little in terms of a middle class as well. Teams choose to invest on the perimeter instead. The teams that overspend on big men hamstring their chances. I think the Mavs know this and that is why they are squeezing him.

Of course I agree that Noel is no Draymond on offense and doesn't deserve max money. That was never my argument.

But I do think you're underselling Noel's switchability due to his length and athleticism and the impact he can have as a modern big. It's something that someone like Gortat just can't do and it's something that's becoming more and more important to modern defenses as bigs like Horford, Gasol, Lopez et al are asked to play on the perimeter more. As for Gortat's offense, he can't create for himself and he's not someone you can throw the ball to when you need a basket. Neither is Noel but both finish around the rim well, Gortat with his strength and Noel with his athleticism.

He's limited on offense but he can fill a role there and if he reaches his potential as a defensive disruptor he could be very valuable for a team. Those defensive skills are real. It's hard to compare his monetary value to other bigs because guys like Biyombo and Mozgov got so wildly overpaid last year but Noel is a better basketball player than either of them. Whatever their true value is, Noel's is higher. He's not a max guy but he's definitely more than just a room exception player.