The Time Value of Draft Picks

[Trying]

First time poster but longtime fan and follower of celticsblog.

Many are familiar with the time value of money concept - the idea that generally speaking a dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow. 

I've always been interested in how this applies to sports.  In football, the general rule of thumb seems to be that if you want my 4th round draft pick now (let's say the middle pick of the middle round), you would have to give me a 3rd round pick next year.  I've always found this cost to be prohibitive but that is another topic.  In football this is particularly meaningful where depth is very important and there are roughly 22 starters. 

So how about in basketball.  I would suggest that in basketball it is possible that there is no curve/discounting/time value at the top of the draft and sometimes even a negative time value.  It depends on the quality at the top of the draft.  In basketball there are only five starters and in the playoffs it seems they play a lot of the minutes.  Also one player can have a huge impact on the outcome of the game.  Westbrook, Harden, LBJ, Curry, Kawhi, and Durant were all on playoff teams and a couple of them have won titles.  This is not to say that one player = championship.  But it seems the object of the draft is to get a franchise dominant player.  The web-site fivethiryeight.com had an interesting article that addressed this "Do the Celtics have enough star power to win a title? Not yet."

 https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/do-the-celtics-have-enough-star-power-to-win-a-title-not-yet/

Their point, the C's have a bunch of very good players but not enough great players.

So it seems to me that if the goal is to only go after studs, what really matters is getting lottery picks in drafts where there are transformational prospects.  I think it is perfectly logical in basketball to trade the #3 pick this year for the hypothetical #4 pick next year if you feel next years draft gives you a meaningful shot at the next great player.  It is still hard to do because the average fan doesn't want to wait.  Many of us including me crave instant gratification on some level.  Based on this, I'm a fan of what Ainge has been doing.  I don't think the C's can win their current big 3 and Ainge seems to keep putting the team in a position for a shot at a great player (Brown, Tatum, Net's '18, Lakers/Sac '18/'19).

In any case I'm curious if other Celtic fans think about the value of a top draft pick this year vs a potential top draft pick next year and that maybe the general strategy should be geared around finding the next great player.

[otherdave]

I am pondering your questions, but wanted to say great post...keep them coming

[timpiker]

Good post.  In general a big difference with the NBA is this yr there may be 5 great players in the draft, next yr maybe 2.  The pickings are much much smaller.  You only have. 5 starters.  So would I trade this year's 3 pick in a weak draft for next year's lotto pick in a strong draft?  Yes.  It's much easier to get a starter in the NFL in the 5th round.

[CelticsElite]

I don't see Danny trading the Brooklyn picks. Getting elite talent at the rookie level contract is untradable for the most part unless a superstar is coming. The Celtics have a new big 3 so no need to panic and trade them. The Lakers pick is also not to be traded unless its for a star

[tazzmaniac]

Even in the NFL, teams don't trade a 1st round pick in the current draft straight up for a 1st round pick in the next draft.  The NBA is much different.  Teams rarely trade future 1st rounders without protection.  In the Fultz/Tatum trade, the Sixers got top 1 protection for the Lakers/Kings pick.  In the Cousins trade, NOP got top 1-3 protection in this draft and top 1 protection for the future drafts.  Even if you somehow knew the team you were trading with would be the worst team next season and there was no pick protection, the lottery only gives you a 25% chance of getting the top pick in the draft. 

Most drafts have 0 to 1 franchise players.  This past draft was one of the stronger drafts with a lot of good prospects but there is a good chance none of them will become a franchise player.
The best prospects in the NBA are one-and-done players and it is hard to project their prospects based on a single college season.  If you are trying to project next year's draft, it would be based on high school play which is extremely iffy.  Giles came into college as a top 2 prospect and fell to 20 because of injury/poor play.  A couple years ago, Cliff Alexander came into college as a top 2 prospect and went completely undrafted.  Okafor was a top 2 prospect and he's struggling to even be a decent bench player. 

The Hinkie multi-year tank strategy and trading established players was specifically geared to getting a franchise player by maximizing the quantity and quality of draft picks.  The Sixers could potentially have 3 franchise players on their team now or they may end up with none.  I think Embiid is a franchise player but he's got to stay healthy.  Simmons is going to have to develop his shooting to have a chance or else he is a very big Rondo "gamma" level.  Good chance Fultz tops out at the Kyrie "gamma" level.