Hypothetically: Celtics v Warriors in 2018, Evaluate Cs Chances

[Granath]

Please read before posting:

Not to jinx anything or count any chickens before they hatch but let's just say Crowder is traded, we sign a backup big and manage to get the 2018 Finals against the Golden State Warriors. What are our chances? This thread is meant for in depth responses. Posts that add nothing to the discussion like "no chance in hell" may be referred to a moderator to remove. Those don't help further the discussion.

Unless otherwise noted, NO ONE is claiming that GSW wouldn't be favorites in any matchup.

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For my purposes, I'm assuming Rozier and Crowder are traded to make the room for Hayward. The leftover cap space would be used to sign a big off the bench.

GSW has a great team that's not just top-heavy but deep. They have arguably four of the top 20 players in the NBA and indisputably 2 of the top 10. They're an embarrassment of riches. I've been thinking about this quite a bit. If the Cs get to the Finals I don't think we're as bad off as some may think. I think we have a reasonable chance to win a series against them.

I think beating GSW comes down to matching them strength for strength. You've got to be strong where they are strong - and that's in the wings and guards.

Starting off with the guards, I think we can match up with them as well as anyone in the league.  Throwing a combo of IT, Bradley, Smart and even Jaylen Brown can provide so many different looks and roles that Curry, Klay and Livingston won't get comfortable. There's size, quickness and length to combat anyone GSW can throw at us. They're going to score without a doubt. But so will we. And we can make them work hard at scoring and make them work equally as hard at preventing us from scoring. How would Curry and Klay hold up in a long series where their work rate is higher than normal? No one has been able to test this - but we could with some really great talent and depth. We're combating their superstars (Curry and Klay) with our star (IT) and significantly better depth and role playing (Bradley, Smart and Brown are no slouches).

On the wing, let's just start off by saying no one is matching up against Durant in this league. He's an absolute freak of nature. But again I think we have a shot here. We have to match up against KG and Iguodala and that's a lot of size. We didn't have the wings this year. But Brown should improve and at 6'7" now (or so he claims) and 230 pounds he's able to body up both of those guys. Add in 6'8" Hayward, 6'8" Tatum and we may have the size and shooters to not get blown out in this particular area. KG will still get his 25-30 a game and Iggy will get his 8-10 or so - but if Hayward is getting 20 and Brown improves to 15 or so we're not losing by much here. Again, we're combating their superstar in KG with our star (Hayward) and better all-around depth.

It's the big guys I'm most worried about. Not Draymond because Al can match up fine with him. But we don't have as much size/experience up front. At the same time, if they're putting a big lineup on the court then that means one of the more dangerous guys on their roster is sitting on the bench. Still, we simply need more horses up front here. A quick maturation of Zizic would go a long way to helping even this up.

It won't be an easy series but I think we could make it quite competitive. I worry less about GSW than I do about Cleveland (who I still think we don't match up well against).

Overly optimistic? I don't think so. Again, GSW would still be heavy favorites. But I think we'd give them something to worry about.

[keevsnick]

I think they beat a team 4-1 that beat us 4-1 and had arguably the greatest collection of talent every assembled. I think they beat us 4-1. The problem as it stands it that when they go to their "death" lineup there's really no where to hide Isaiah, he will get roasted. If we take him off the floor we really don't have the fire power to compete.  We additionally don't have anybody who is ready to check Kevin Durant. Heyward is a nice defender but he's not a one on one stopper, and Tatum is 19. Jaylen brown may have the bets shot but even though he showed a lot of defensive improvement last year expecting him to stop maybe the best offensive player in the game is asking too much in just his second year. Draymond vs Horford is probably a wash. If we bring in Smart to add defense we lose A LOT offensively, he kills our spacing.

 I think to summarize we just aren't there yet. If Jaylen Brown really takes off and exceeds even MY lofty expectations for him sooner than I think he (I think he's gonna be an all star) then maybe. But as currently constructed we don't have their offensive firepower, and they are better than us defensively as well.

[keevsnick]

TP for the thoughtful post tho.

[Moranis]

As currently constructed (with your hypothetical of no Crowder and Rozier and some room exception big man), it really is almost 0.  Boston has no way to defend Durant or Curry and would easily be defended by Golden State.  There isn't a single matchup where you could say Boston would have an edge (assuming you match the room exception big vs. Pachulia and Horford vs. Green) and in many cases GS' edge is massive.  Thomas would get brutalized defensively and shut down offensively.  Thompson would just smother him.  Durant would neutralize Hayward.  And even on the bench, I'd take Iguodala, West, and Livingston over the first 3 for Boston (next year, though not down the line obviously).  Boston would be lucky to be within 10 points in any game and I would fully expect a sweep. 

If Boston even made the Finals I would be ecstatic because right now the Cavs are also still clearly better (though Boston should at least make it a series against Cleveland this year). 

[Csfan1984]

Just looking at the match ups it doesn't look promising. They have a lot of size on us. I'd say we do match up better though by keeping Crowder over AB. This series and a Cavs one, as well as future salary is why I want to keep Crowder over AB. On to the match ups.

IT vs Curry, clearly this is a win for warriors but health seems to be an issue for both these guys late in the year that may be a difference maker. Can a hurt Curry stay with IT no way. Can you double IT if Crowder, Hayward and Horford are lined up for open 3s?

Hayward vs Klay, this is makes sense for both clubs to match up. It probably favors the C's with Hayward being a more experienced scorer who does multiple things to get his points.

Crowder vs KD, KD would dominate but if the team is physical with him and also uses Brown and Tatum to help give Crowder rest it can become a closer match up. Can you imagine KD holding up against all three? At some point they collectively will out play him a game or two.

PF vs Green, TBD

Horford vs C, TBD

Once we know how the last additions to come in. I'll post my thoughts on final match ups and the benches.

[LilRip]

I can see why but the disparity is pretty big right now. I'm not confident we have the firepower to match, unless Tatum and/or Brown have a season muuuuuch better than expected.

Bradley would help tremendously vs GSW but I can't see us retaining him if we want to keep building through the draft (I don't think ownership is willing to go into luxury tax with this team). However, I wouldn't mind trading him to the West (in a 3team trade for a big?) to a team that feels like it's one defensive stopper/3D player away. Maybe the Spurs? The Thunder?

On another note, if we had Paul George, I'd say we could probably beat them, especially once the vet mins start signing for us. Swapping out Bradley and Crowder for essentially Hayward and PG is insanely good. We wouldn't have much depth outside of Smart, Brown and Tatum but depth matters less in the playoffs.

[PaulP34]

Give it two years and Tatum will be our version of KD