I feel like I am one of the more optimistic people on here, but we are not getting the lakers pick. The best player on Indiana is Myles turner. The best player on Atlanta is Dennis Schroeder. The knicks are going to lose derrick rose and Carmelo anything from a 30 win team. Brooklyn is Brooklyn. The kings and suns are still the kings and suns. Hell dalllas has nerlens Noel and a 40 year old dirk. You think of all those teams and the fact that they all have incentive to lose while LA does not. Tough to fathom us getting the pick
I hear you, but it's not just about incentive to lose. You actually have to be good enough to win games, at least for the first 80% of the season. Then incentive to lose comes in.
The Lakers were legit not good last year. At a certain point they started to try a bit less, but it was in March. As of yet they've barely, if at all, improved. Ball is a very nice prospect, but most 20 year-olds aren't very good. It's unlikely he'll be much of an improvement over Russell. Their goal is to trade Lopez for another expiring and a pick. Deng might be benched less this year, but he was not good last year.
Furthermore, with the West so good, it will be very difficult to win many conference games, of which 5/8 of their ganes are. They're probably at the same level as SAC and Phoenix. If SAC gets Porter, the Lakers will still be a bottom two team in the conference.
Meanwhile, in the East, the bad teams will largely beat up each other, inflating their records a little bit collectively. Maybe one team will fall to the bottom (hopefully Brooklyn), but if you think the bad teams will average about a .500 record vs. each other, then most of them are starting with a baseline of about 10 wins of 20 games. (I'm adding Orlando and Chicago to your list of bad teams from the East). And even the "good" East teams are less good than the West, so there are just more wins to pick up in conference.
It's not difficult for me to fathom the Lakers finishing with the 3rd-5th worst record, and the pick accordingly having a decent chance to convey.