Isaiah Thomas is not going to command the max (edit: nevermind)

[max215]

This is something that I haven't seen mentioned anywhere, but I think the last couple days have made it abundantly clear that Isaiah will not command the max. The fact of the matter is that there are not a lot of teams with a) a need at point guard b) the cap space necessary to land a star c) a remotely attractive situation. The most analogous free agent to IT this year is probably Kyle Lowry. Lowry, like Thomas, is an absolute stud, likely a top-15 player, but he's aging, with serious questions about how long he can sustain his current level of play, with a potentially destructive contract on the horizon. However, that potentially destructive contract isn't coming. Not only is Lowry not getting max money, but he's likely only getting 3 years. This has to engender optimism when it comes to our diminutive superstar. After all, isn't IT on 3/85 deal a lot more palatable than 5/175?

https://twitter.com/JeffZillgitt/status/881337931457277953

Edit: With Lowry getting way more than reported, safe to say I jumped the gun; IT's getting max.

[Ilikesports17]

Resigning IT on a 3/85 deal would be perfect.

[GreenEnvy]

If Jrue Holiday just got 5/$126M (up to $150M with incentives?), IT4 will get the max.

[saltlover]

1) Many more teams will have cap room next year.
2) Lowry is 31 and getting 3 years.  Isaiah will be 29 -- he can get 4.
3) Lowry is still getting over 90% of an open market free agent max for 3 years.
4) IT was better, and healthier, than Lowry last year.  If IT has a similar season next year, given the above reasons, he will absolutely get max.  Not to mention:
5) IT is very marketable.  That adds to his team's bottom line.

[jpotter33]

1) Many more teams will have cap room next year.
2) Lowry is 31 and getting 3 years.  Isaiah will be 29 -- he can get 4.
3) Lowry is still getting over 90% of an open market free agent max for 3 years.
4) IT was better, and healthier, than Lowry last year.  If IT has a similar season next year, given the above reasons, he will absolutely get max.  Not to mention:
5) IT is very marketable.  That adds to his team's bottom line.

IT is also much smaller than Lowry (leading to many more questions about his future durability), only plays one side of the Ball unlike Lowry, and has a significant injury right now that might require surgery, which also could affect his game and athleticism significantly being his hips.

I'd be fine with giving him 4 years, especially now that we don't have Fultz behind him, but I'd like the annual number to be closer to $25M than $30M. 4/100 I would be agreeable with for IT, which is still four times what he is making annually now.

But question: is three years the max extension we could give him this season if we don't use our space elsewhere?

[max215]

1) Many more teams will have cap room next year.
2) Lowry is 31 and getting 3 years.  Isaiah will be 29 -- he can get 4.
3) Lowry is still getting over 90% of an open market free agent max for 3 years.
4) IT was better, and healthier, than Lowry last year.  If IT has a similar season next year, given the above reasons, he will absolutely get max.  Not to mention:
5) IT is very marketable.  That adds to his team's bottom line.

While Lowry has the age concerns, IT's size concerns can't really (and won't) be ignored. I'm not going to bet against IT, but there are questions. On second thought, 3/85 was probably too conservative; it'll be more like 4/100+. I mean, you could start IT at close to 90% of the max as well and just give him one more year than Lowry, which seems fair given the slight age disparity. In terms of quality, IT and Lowry are pretty close. Lowry isn't as high-volume of a scorer as IT, but he's just as efficient, a better creator for others, and 10x the defender IT is. And let's not pretend like injuries aren't a concern with Isaiah. He's recovering from a major injury right now, and he's dealt with these lingering wrist injuries for years. Sure, IT is marketable, but so is winning, and Lowry helps you do that just about as well as IT.

[max215]

If Jrue Holiday just got 5/$126M (up to $150M with incentives?), IT4 will get the max.

There's a lot more nuance to that situation. If Holiday left, the Pelicans did not have the assets/space to acquire an adequate replacement. If Holiday left, the Pelicans would have been bad. If the Pelicans were bad, Cousins would leave next year, and it wouldn't be long before Davis was demanding a trade. Losing Holiday would've ruined that franchise. Isaiah doesn't have that leverage.

[nickagneta]

People have to stop fooling themselves regarding IT's worth. With another great season, IT gets his 4 year max deal. No question about it.

Last year he was the 3rd leading scorer in the league and had the second best TS% for players with higher than 20PPG. 1st was Durant, third was Curry. That's pretty elite offense. Add that to his two All-Star appearances, his All NBA selection and his intangibles and toughness he brings and its easy to see he is a max player.

[liam]

If Jrue Holiday just got 5/$126M (up to $150M with incentives?), IT4 will get the max.

There's a lot more nuance to that situation. If Holiday left, the Pelicans did not have the assets/space to acquire an adequate replacement. If Holiday left, the Pelicans would have been bad. If the Pelicans were bad, Cousins would leave next year, and it wouldn't be long before Davis was demanding a trade. Losing Holiday would've ruined that franchise. Isaiah doesn't have that leverage.

The Pelicans need to hit the reset. Signing Holiday to that big contract is a mistake. They should trade AD to the Celtics for all our 1sts and rebuild, letting Holiday and Cousins walk. That's not ever going to be anything in NO. They have 3 max contracts and didn't sniff the playoffs last year...

[max215]

People have to stop fooling themselves regarding IT's worth. With another great season, IT gets his 4 year max deal. No question about it.

Last year he was the 3rd leading scorer in the league and had the second best TS% for players with higher than 20PPG. 1st was Durant, third was Curry. That's pretty elite offense. Add that to his two All-Star appearances, his All NBA selection and his intangibles and toughness he brings and its easy to see he is a max player.

IT is a remarkable player, a top-5 offensive player in the league. He produces enough value to be worth the max. The market may not deem it necessary to pay him the max.

[max215]

If Jrue Holiday just got 5/$126M (up to $150M with incentives?), IT4 will get the max.

There's a lot more nuance to that situation. If Holiday left, the Pelicans did not have the assets/space to acquire an adequate replacement. If Holiday left, the Pelicans would have been bad. If the Pelicans were bad, Cousins would leave next year, and it wouldn't be long before Davis was demanding a trade. Losing Holiday would've ruined that franchise. Isaiah doesn't have that leverage.

The Pelicans need to hit the reset. Signing Holiday to that big contract is a mistake. They should trade AD to the Celtics for all our 1sts and rebuild, letting Holiday and Cousins walk. That's not ever going to be anything in NO. They have 3 max contracts and didn't sniff the playoffs last year...

I agree, rebuilding is probably in their best interest. However, there's more nuance here than you're getting at, too. The Pelicans are run by Dell Demps. Dell Demps would not survive a rebuild; he's engaging in self-preservation.

[incoherent]

We have to wait to see how IT plays this seasons, but if IT was a free agent this summer he would be getting mutliple max offers without question.

OP makes some good points about the market... but ultimately IT's play was so absurdly good this past season it's a little silly to apply general market observations to what is a top 3 scorer in the league.

[liam]

If Jrue Holiday just got 5/$126M (up to $150M with incentives?), IT4 will get the max.

There's a lot more nuance to that situation. If Holiday left, the Pelicans did not have the assets/space to acquire an adequate replacement. If Holiday left, the Pelicans would have been bad. If the Pelicans were bad, Cousins would leave next year, and it wouldn't be long before Davis was demanding a trade. Losing Holiday would've ruined that franchise. Isaiah doesn't have that leverage.

The Pelicans need to hit the reset. Signing Holiday to that big contract is a mistake. They should trade AD to the Celtics for all our 1sts and rebuild, letting Holiday and Cousins walk. That's not ever going to be anything in NO. They have 3 max contracts and didn't sniff the playoffs last year...

I agree, rebuilding is probably in their best interest. However, there's more nuance here than you're getting at, too. The Pelicans are run by Dell Demps. Dell Demps would not survive a rebuild; he's engaging in self-preservation.

You are right. It's in the teams interest but not the GMs. That's the problem with most of the GMs in the NBA. That's why Danny is so good. He doesn't care how he looks, he only cares about The Celtics and that's how and why he makes his decisions.

[max215]

If Jrue Holiday just got 5/$126M (up to $150M with incentives?), IT4 will get the max.

There's a lot more nuance to that situation. If Holiday left, the Pelicans did not have the assets/space to acquire an adequate replacement. If Holiday left, the Pelicans would have been bad. If the Pelicans were bad, Cousins would leave next year, and it wouldn't be long before Davis was demanding a trade. Losing Holiday would've ruined that franchise. Isaiah doesn't have that leverage.

The Pelicans need to hit the reset. Signing Holiday to that big contract is a mistake. They should trade AD to the Celtics for all our 1sts and rebuild, letting Holiday and Cousins walk. That's not ever going to be anything in NO. They have 3 max contracts and didn't sniff the playoffs last year...

I agree, rebuilding is probably in their best interest. However, there's more nuance here than you're getting at, too. The Pelicans are run by Dell Demps. Dell Demps would not survive a rebuild; he's engaging in self-preservation.

You are right. It's in the teams interest but not the GMs. That's the problem with most of the GMs in the NBA. That's why Danny is so good. He doesn't care how he looks, he only cares about The Celtics and that's how and why he makes his decisions.

It's a common refrain from Danny Leroux on Dunc'd On/RealGM Radio that any GM on the hot seat should immediately be fired. The job-saving moves these guys make can be really destructive.

[loco_91]

Interesting--I hope this is the case, but I'm not sure. Lowry is undervalued because he doesn't score as much as IT and his stellar D is underappreciated, whereas IT is probably overvalued by bad front offices who don't realize how much his poor D detracts from the value of his scoring. I'm hoping we give IT a 2 year full max, with no option. That way, we clear cap space for 2020 when Horford also comes off the books. There's a good chance that Anthony Davis will become available that offseason, and if all goes well we should have an up-and-coming young star to package for him together with the cap space to absorb his salary.