Author Topic: Using unlikely bonuses to get Hayward to the max  (Read 3747 times)

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Using unlikely bonuses to get Hayward to the max
« on: June 30, 2017, 01:07:40 PM »

Offline saltlover

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I've been thinking of this idea for a bit, and Lowe mentioned it in his column today, so I thought I'd run with it.

As the cap projections currently stand, the Celtics will have a difficult time of getting to max cap room without dumping at least one significant player.  The commonly held best idea -- releasing/renouncing all free agents and fully non-guaranteed deals, salary dumping Jackson and Rozier, and keeping Yabusele overseas for an additional season -- leaves the team a couple hundred thousand short of pure max room.  If the cap rises about $350k from the current projection, that will be sufficient.  The other idea is "if he won't take a small haircut, I don't want him", which, while understandable, seems sub-optimal.

But there is another way -- unlikely bonuses.  Unlikely bonuses do not count against the cap -- only likely bonuses.  The problem, of course, is that unlikely bonuses are not accomplishments that are expected to happen (hence the "unlikely" in the name) -- if they are expected to happen, they become "likely."  Now, the key is that the NBA defines (with some room for exception) a bonus as likely if it would have been reached in the prior season, and unlikely if it would not have.  So this means the challenge would be to create bonuses that Hayward would have a reasonable chance of reaching, that would not have been reached last year.  They can be either player or team accomplishments, and they have to be "measurable", so based on a statistic or an award.  Here is my idea:

1) Hayward is paid a bonus of X (X being the amount he is short of the maximum) in any season in which one or more of the following occur: a) he is named to the All-NBA team, b) he is named to the All-Defense team, c) the team advances to the NBA finals, d) the team wins 55 games.  (X goes up each year to the amount Hayward is short the max, since that number rises thanks to raises -- if he's short $300k this year, he'd be short $315k next season).

Anyway, that collection of events are all unlikely by what both Hayward and the Celtics did last year.  All-NBA might be more possible next year in Boston instead of Utah, so that could help.  All-Defense is unlikely, but gives him something to strive for.  Reaching the NBA finals is always difficult, but certainly becomes more plausible with Hayward on the team.  The key is winning 55 games -- last year the Celtics won 53, and with the addition of Hayward 55 seems quite attainable.  It's not a guarantee, however, and the NBA would be unlikely to challenge it (there's also a challenge process, and the burden of proof would be on the league).

So, if Hayward and/or the Celtics accomplished at least 1 of the above 4 things every year, Hayward would wind up with a max deal.  Now I should caveat that I'm not certain if team win totals are allowed.  I know the other 3 are, and I'm fairly certain that is as well, but if anybody could confirm or deny (with a source), you'd get TPs from me.

Anyway, that's my idea to get Hayward to a max, with a little less than max room.  Frankly, I think it's a good one, and I hope that Mike Zarren, or someone who works for him, has already come up with this idea, or sees this if they haven't.  What other "unlikely" incentives can we add to make this idea even better?  I prefer to avoid statistical accomplishments since that can sometime lead to perverse incentives, as we saw with Moe Harkless and the sudden fear to take 3-point shots.
« Last Edit: June 30, 2017, 01:33:21 PM by saltlover »

Re: Using unlikely bonuses to get Hayward to the max
« Reply #1 on: June 30, 2017, 01:24:46 PM »

Offline fantankerous

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This is brilliant.  I was unaware of the likely/unlikely distinction, so thanks for that.

I would add all-star starter as a possible unlikely bonuses.

Re: Using unlikely bonuses to get Hayward to the max
« Reply #2 on: June 30, 2017, 01:29:18 PM »

Offline saltlover

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This is brilliant.  I was unaware of the likely/unlikely distinction, so thanks for that.

I would add all-star starter as a possible unlikely bonuses.

I think they took All-Star Starter out of bonus criteria this time around, because it's subject to being a fan popularity contest.  (To be clear, I heard they did before I found a copy of the CBA, but in the hour I've spent searching it over the last day or so, I haven't found mention of that one way or the other).  But if it's allowable, yes, let's throw it in!

Re: Using unlikely bonuses to get Hayward to the max
« Reply #3 on: June 30, 2017, 01:31:28 PM »

Offline nickagneta

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https://www.hoopsrumors.com/2016/11/players-with-incentive-bonuses-for-201617.html

Apparently Mirotic has a team wins bonus of 65 wins in his contract from Chicago according to this salty. Great idea. TP.

Re: Using unlikely bonuses to get Hayward to the max
« Reply #4 on: June 30, 2017, 01:32:20 PM »

Offline saltlover

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https://www.hoopsrumors.com/2016/11/players-with-incentive-bonuses-for-201617.html

Apparently Mirotic has a team wins bonus of 65 wins in his contract from Chicago according to this salty. Great idea. TP.

Thanks! TP back at you for the find!

Re: Using unlikely bonuses to get Hayward to the max
« Reply #5 on: June 30, 2017, 01:34:57 PM »

Offline nickagneta

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https://www.hoopsrumors.com/2016/11/players-with-incentive-bonuses-for-201617.html

Apparently Mirotic has a team wins bonus of 65 wins in his contract from Chicago according to this salty. Great idea. TP.

Thanks! TP back at you for the find!
Would the league consider just 55 wins unlikely though? May need to go higher.

Re: Using unlikely bonuses to get Hayward to the max
« Reply #6 on: June 30, 2017, 01:39:52 PM »

Offline droopdog7

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He may want these bonuses on top of a max contract.

Re: Using unlikely bonuses to get Hayward to the max
« Reply #7 on: June 30, 2017, 01:44:37 PM »

Offline Ilikesports17

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https://www.hoopsrumors.com/2016/11/players-with-incentive-bonuses-for-201617.html

Apparently Mirotic has a team wins bonus of 65 wins in his contract from Chicago according to this salty. Great idea. TP.

Thanks! TP back at you for the find!
Would the league consider just 55 wins unlikely though? May need to go higher.
I feel like the league would challenge 55 wins and they'd have a good case seeing as we won 53 w/out Hayward.

Do these bonuses count against the max? Hypothetically could you differ a guy a max contract + unlikely bonuses?

Re: Using unlikely bonuses to get Hayward to the max
« Reply #8 on: June 30, 2017, 01:46:42 PM »

Offline saltlover

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https://www.hoopsrumors.com/2016/11/players-with-incentive-bonuses-for-201617.html

Apparently Mirotic has a team wins bonus of 65 wins in his contract from Chicago according to this salty. Great idea. TP.

Thanks! TP back at you for the find!
Would the league consider just 55 wins unlikely though? May need to go higher.

I think they should, by their rules.  There is a challenge provision, and the League and Players Association would have to agree on an expert, and the burden of proof is in the league.  That would mean the league would need to prove it "likely" that the Celtics would win 55 games.  Even a lot of statistical models would probably hesitate to show that, especially given that the Celtics Pythagorean expected record was only 48-34.  Hayward would have to improve them by 7 wins for most modes to predict 55.  I don't think it would be challenged, or prevail if it were.

Re: Using unlikely bonuses to get Hayward to the max
« Reply #9 on: June 30, 2017, 01:52:00 PM »

Offline saltlover

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https://www.hoopsrumors.com/2016/11/players-with-incentive-bonuses-for-201617.html

Apparently Mirotic has a team wins bonus of 65 wins in his contract from Chicago according to this salty. Great idea. TP.

Thanks! TP back at you for the find!
Would the league consider just 55 wins unlikely though? May need to go higher.
I feel like the league would challenge 55 wins and they'd have a good case seeing as we won 53 w/out Hayward.

Do these bonuses count against the max? Hypothetically could you differ a guy a max contract + unlikely bonuses?

But their rules specifically say that the prior season defines what is unlikely or likely.  I admittedly picked 55 because it's a round(er) number than 54, but it should be unlikely.  It might be more likely than 60, but it's the NBA's rule.

Bonuses can never take a player beyond a maximum salary.  So you can't max and then give someone an unlikely bonus on top of it.

Re: Using unlikely bonuses to get Hayward to the max
« Reply #10 on: June 30, 2017, 01:53:31 PM »

Offline The Oracle

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The problem is that when you group those events together along with using Martingale system tactics, is it then unlikely that the bonus is achieved?  Each individual event may be unlikely but if he only has to hit 1 of them and the bonus is rolled forward it then becomes very likely he would get the bonus.  Pretty sure that as suggested that would not be allowed, really like the idea though of using an unlikely bonus.

Re: Using unlikely bonuses to get Hayward to the max
« Reply #11 on: June 30, 2017, 01:53:56 PM »

Offline JBcat

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Is there a limit to how much a bonus can be?  Just thinking of how much we can actually save off the cap to keep some players.  Enough for Kelly's cap hold for example?  Maybe 3 point percentage can be another category?  I'm sure he would get more open looks on this team.

Need idea.

Re: Using unlikely bonuses to get Hayward to the max
« Reply #12 on: June 30, 2017, 02:02:31 PM »

Offline Ilikesports17

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https://www.hoopsrumors.com/2016/11/players-with-incentive-bonuses-for-201617.html

Apparently Mirotic has a team wins bonus of 65 wins in his contract from Chicago according to this salty. Great idea. TP.

Thanks! TP back at you for the find!
Would the league consider just 55 wins unlikely though? May need to go higher.
I feel like the league would challenge 55 wins and they'd have a good case seeing as we won 53 w/out Hayward.

Do these bonuses count against the max? Hypothetically could you differ a guy a max contract + unlikely bonuses?

But their rules specifically say that the prior season defines what is unlikely or likely.  I admittedly picked 55 because it's a round(er) number than 54, but it should be unlikely.  It might be more likely than 60, but it's the NBA's rule.

Bonuses can never take a player beyond a maximum salary.  So you can't max and then give someone an unlikely bonus on top of it.
The CBA FAQ page lists ones of their examples as:

A team wins 25 games and adds the previous seasons MVP. If the MVP has a 30-win clause in his contract it will be classified as "unlikely". Once again you appear to be on the money.

Terrific find SL and a TP is headed your way.

I am a bit confused about the challenge process you mentioned.

Isn't this sort of max-manipulation exactly what the challenge process would be installed to avoid? Or am I missing something?

Re: Using unlikely bonuses to get Hayward to the max
« Reply #13 on: June 30, 2017, 02:04:09 PM »

Offline Ilikesports17

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Is there a limit to how much a bonus can be?  Just thinking of how much we can actually save off the cap to keep some players.  Enough for Kelly's cap hold for example?  Maybe 3 point percentage can be another category?  I'm sure he would get more open looks on this team.

Need idea.
Based on quick googling it seems like a max of 15% of the contract can be in bonuses..

Re: Using unlikely bonuses to get Hayward to the max
« Reply #14 on: June 30, 2017, 02:07:10 PM »

Offline saltlover

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The problem is that when you group those events together along with using Martingale system tactics, is it then unlikely that the bonus is achieved?  Each individual event may be unlikely but if he only has to hit 1 of them and the bonus is rolled forward it then becomes very likely he would get the bonus.  Pretty sure that as suggested that would not be allowed, really like the idea though of using an unlikely bonus.

It is debatable, and there is a reason I wanted to make it contingent upon one of multiple criteria, but as there are limited ways to properly calculate the total probability of any of these events occurring, I think it would pass muster.