I mean think of it this way, the Lakers play:
Group A.) The Warriors, Spurs, Rockets & Thunder 16 times
Group B.) The Celtics, Cavaliers & Raptors 6 times
Group C.) The Clippers, Grizzlies, Trailblazers, Nuggets, Pelicans & Timberwolves 20 times
Group D.) The Jazz & Mavericks 8 times
Group E.) The Wizards, Bucks, Heat & Hornets 8 times
Group F.) The Knicks & Pistons 4 times
Group G.) The Kings & Suns 8 Times
Group H.) The Bulls, Pacers, Nets, Magic & 76ers 10 times
I think this is a fair prediction of wins per Group for them: A.) 2, B.) 1, C.) 3, D.) 3, E.) 3, F.) 2, G.) 4, H.) 8
That's 26 wins - exactly where they finished this year. Comfortably the 3rd worst odds.
I think 26 wins will be more like 5th or 6th worst. I expect 3 teams finish 20 or under.
Winning 8 of 10 on Group H is a stretch.
Remember, wins are a zero sum game. If you look at this list, only the Kings and Suns are really weak in the west, and neither has less talent than the Lakers. Both teams also have guys that are terrible matchups for Lonzo. His problems matching up with De'Aaron Fox are well known. Eric Bledsoe is probably an even worse matchup, and he can't hide on Devin Booker either.
Meanwhile, the weak teams in the East are numerous, and they have to play each other. Someone has to win those games.