1 for 3 swap rationale

[Erik]

If the trade package is #1 for #3 and LA2018, it's a no brainer for me.

Fultz isn't a lock star, Ball isn't a lock star, Jackson isn't a lock star. You are getting a kid who could be Michael Jordan, Michael Beasley, Len Bias, or Greg Oden.

By swapping 1 top 5 pick for 2 top 5 picks, you are doubling your chances of landing Michael Jordan. It's called diversification, and it's what brilliant investors have been doing for a very long time. That's what a draft is. You are investing in a player.

Let's say Celtics do this deal and sign one of Hayward or Griffin, you would have a team structured something like this

Guards: IT, Bradley, Smart, Rozier
Wings: Hayward, Crowder, Brown
Bigs: Horford, Zizic, Yabusele

along with 3 top draft picks over the next 2 drafts.
2017: Ball or Jackson
2018: 2 of Porter/Ayton/Bamba/Doncic

This allows you to compete NOW on the off chance of an injury, you get a free title while developing your rookies to compete in 4 years when GSW/Cavs are slowing down.

Let me put it another way: What are the odds that both (Ayton) & (Jackson) are combined worse than Fultz?

[Rhyso]

I think it's a big aasumption to pencil in the lakers pick as being in the top 4 again. Sure it looks that way, but no guarantees and you could potentially end up trading the number 1 pick for the 3rd and 6-8th pick in 2018. Not a good enough return imo.

[Yoki_IsTheName]

Fultz indeed isn't a lock stat, but his the chances of him being one is astronomically high. You don't pass on that for MORE draft picks.

You know what else is not a lock, the Lakers being terrible next year. How do you know the 2018 Lakers pick is top 5? They are under new management, and while they may still miss the playoffs, they could be much better than they were last season (another year of Ingram and Zubac, whoever they pick could make an impact, D'Angelo Russell improvements).

You take Fultz, that's the rationale. There's a high probability that he will turn into a special player, why are we going to pass on that for the #3, who's potential isn't as good as Fultz, and the uncertainty of the Lakers pick.

[CelticsElite]

I'm betting the pick gets shipped in a big trade package to chicago for butler. Then we lock up Hayward

[RockinRyA]

Oh please NO. I dont want Jimmy Butler in this team. Get Paul George or someone else. I dont want bad teammates on this team.

[j804]

Fultz indeed isn't a lock stat, but his the chances of him being one is astronomically high. You don't pass on that for MORE draft picks.

You know what else is not a lock, the Lakers being terrible next year. How do you know the 2018 Lakers pick is top 5? They are under new management, and while they may still miss the playoffs, they could be much better than they were last season (another year of Ingram and Zubac, whoever they pick could make an impact, D'Angelo Russell improvements).

You take Fultz, that's the rationale. There's a high probability that he will turn into a special player, why are we going to pass on that for the #3, who's potential isn't as good as Fultz, and the uncertainty of the Lakers pick.

This. I don't get it. We're trading the number one pick for a chance at landing the number one pick again next year, not gonna happen. When's the last time the Celts got the first overall pick? Exactly.

[gouki88]

Fultz indeed isn't a lock stat, but his the chances of him being one is astronomically high. You don't pass on that for MORE draft picks.

You know what else is not a lock, the Lakers being terrible next year. How do you know the 2018 Lakers pick is top 5? They are under new management, and while they may still miss the playoffs, they could be much better than they were last season (another year of Ingram and Zubac, whoever they pick could make an impact, D'Angelo Russell improvements).

You take Fultz, that's the rationale. There's a high probability that he will turn into a special player, why are we going to pass on that for the #3, who's potential isn't as good as Fultz, and the uncertainty of the Lakers pick.

This. I don't get it. We're trading the number one pick for a chance at landing the number one pick again next year, not gonna happen. When's the last time the Celts got the first overall pick? Exactly.

Couldn't put it better myself. We finally get a chance at drafting a guy who could be a legit superstar, and we're considering trading it.
There is no good reason for doing this.

[tyrone biggums]

The reason is that Danny Ainge loves players like Josh Jackson. He doesn't really think offense or rebounding is a huge deal in the NBA. He values defense and grit more...Jackson will get a lot of tommy points for his defense this year but don't expect more than 6 or 7 ppg for this year at least. I'd be stunned if he even gets an average of 15 for his career unless someone can fix his broken shot. This isn't the team that can. Too many player with busted shots. He's also not a rebounder. Checks boxes

[jakeopp]

The reason is that Danny Ainge loves players like Josh Jackson. He doesn't really think offense or rebounding is a huge deal in the NBA. He values defense and grit more...Jackson will get a lot of tommy points for his defense this year but don't expect more than 6 or 7 ppg for this year at least. I'd be stunned if he even gets an average of 15 for his career unless someone can fix his broken shot. This isn't the team that can. Too many player with busted shots. He's also not a rebounder. Checks boxes

If that's what Ainge values most then it's time to move on because we aren't winning any championships with a team of Marcus Smarts

[bopna]

I thought the whole point is to save money to allow signing of a max player. Besides, there may be a lot of back channels wotking here that we dont know about. What if there is already a prearrange deal sending this pick to say PG13 or Butler. Then it only means we dont necessarily want to draft but would like to be in play for the present.

Personally id be ecstatic if Danny all along wants Blake in FA and somehow manages to flip the 3rd pick to PG13...I dont want a yr rental of him though..we need to make him sign an extension and convince him that the new big 4 should be enough to take down the Cavs.

[jyyzzoel]

My guess is Danny was told by his doctors not to touch Fultz like they told him not to touch Brandon Roy

[Erik]

Fultz indeed isn't a lock stat, but his the chances of him being one is astronomically high. You don't pass on that for MORE draft picks.

You know what else is not a lock, the Lakers being terrible next year. How do you know the 2018 Lakers pick is top 5? They are under new management, and while they may still miss the playoffs, they could be much better than they were last season (another year of Ingram and Zubac, whoever they pick could make an impact, D'Angelo Russell improvements).

You take Fultz, that's the rationale. There's a high probability that he will turn into a special player, why are we going to pass on that for the #3, who's potential isn't as good as Fultz, and the uncertainty of the Lakers pick.

This. I don't get it. We're trading the number one pick for a chance at landing the number one pick again next year, not gonna happen. When's the last time the Celts got the first overall pick? Exactly.

You speak as if only the #1 pick produces a legend. Fultz will be wade. Ball will be Kidd. Jackson will be LeBron...until they aren't. The upside on all of these kids is huge and all are likely to be busts. I'd take 2 shots for a legend always.

If the Celtics think Jackson is the #1 pick doesn't fultz cease to be the #1 pick? Who are you? Just some guy who watched a few highlights on draft express and got together with all the other 2k17 armchair GMs and declared Fultz as the second coming. They don't come to your place of work and tell you how to salt the fries because you're the master of it. NBA teams study these kids in high school before you even know their names.

[mctyson]

If the trade package is #1 for #3 and LA2018, it's a no brainer for me.

Fultz isn't a lock star, Ball isn't a lock star, Jackson isn't a lock star. You are getting a kid who could be Michael Jordan, Michael Beasley, Len Bias, or Greg Oden.

By swapping 1 top 5 pick for 2 top 5 picks, you are doubling your chances of landing Michael Jordan. It's called diversification, and it's what brilliant investors have been doing for a very long time. That's what a draft is. You are investing in a player.

Let's say Celtics do this deal and sign one of Hayward or Griffin, you would have a team structured something like this

Guards: IT, Bradley, Smart, Rozier
Wings: Hayward, Crowder, Brown
Bigs: Horford, Zizic, Yabusele

along with 3 top draft picks over the next 2 drafts.
2017: Ball or Jackson
2018: 2 of Porter/Ayton/Bamba/Doncic

This allows you to compete NOW on the off chance of an injury, you get a free title while developing your rookies to compete in 4 years when GSW/Cavs are slowing down.

Let me put it another way: What are the odds that both (Ayton) & (Jackson) are combined worse than Fultz?

This is exactly the rationale, though I think they will ask for one more 1st round pick (which then would make even more sense.)

They also save money by doing this trade, which is a huge issue as that I believe could save them from needing to make another major trade to fit a max contract on the team.