Pelton Mailbag Question: Point Guard Aging By Height

[obnoxiousmime]

http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/19525455/kevin-pelton-weekly-mailbag-including-point-guard-career-arcs

"Is there empirical evidence that smaller point guards decline faster than their larger peers? Lowry and CP3 seem to be going against this line of thinking, but almost every point guard historically seems to have been borderline unstartable after age 34, excepting Stockton, Nash, Kidd, Cassell and Mark Jackson (surprisingly solid age-36 season)."

-- Nick Kogan


The way I've studied this in the past is to look at ratio compared to peak winning percentage, the per-minute version of my wins above replacement player (WARP) metric. A few years ago, I put together a list of players who had played at least nine seasons and at least 10,000 minutes and ended their careers between 2005 and 2010.

That list had 21 players I labeled point guards. They divide rather evenly into 10 players 6-foot-2 or taller (the tall group) and 11 who were 6-foot-1 or shorter (the short group, and at 5-foot-9 I mean nothing disparaging by that). While those sample sizes are smaller (shorter) than ideal for this kind of study, the results are fascinating.





While the smaller point guards were for the most part effective immediately -- Brevin Knight's best season was his rookie year at age 22, while Damon Stoudamire's came in year three at age 24 -- the larger guards generally took longer to develop. Rod Strickland peaked at age 29, Gary Payton peaked at age 30, and Cassell did not reach his peak until age 34.

So as a group, the taller point guards didn't hit their peak until age 30, much later than the smaller point guards (age 26, a little younger than the typical age-27 peak across all positions). Every year after age 27, the taller point guards were relatively better, often substantially so.

I'm not overly concerned about the height conclusion because, after all Pelton admitted it was a small sample size. However, what bothers me is the fact that both groups start a clear decline at age 30-32. Then at age 32-33, the shorter PGs experience a death drop.

Isaiah did play three years of college and hasn't been a starter his whole career, so it's possible the shorter mileage will help him. However, he will be 29.5 the 2018 season. If he wants a long-term deal, we have got to be prepared for the back end of it to be less than stellar.

[Eja117]

What about players that became all nba players at age 27 for the first time? When did they decline?

Does this mean Marcus Smart won't peak for 7 years? And Fultz for 11?

[celticsclay]

I feel bad for IT. He could save a baby from a burning buidling and people on here would complain it took him longer to get out of the building than a taller traditional sized point guard because of his height. 

[byennie]

Good lord. 24 player sample and the chart even has "0.9" listed twice on the y-axis.

There might be something there, but this is beyond crap proof of it. Move the needle one inch in height (I'm pretty sure 6'2" is still short in the NBA), or one player on either side and I guarantee it would invalidate the whole premise. Not to mention correlation vs causation- how many of these guys suffered major injuries, what style of play did they have, how did they fare in measures other than WARP...).

It's worth noting that one way to read this chart is: "short PGs are practically identical at age 28 as they are at age 31", seeing as the line goes flat there.

It's basically a lazy quip about some numbers lying around.

[Chris22]

IT got his teeth knocked out and could not make it through the playoffs.
Smaller players do not lead their team to championships.
The playoffs are brutally physical.

[Future Celtics Owner]

I feel bad for IT. He could save a baby from a burning buidling and people on here would complain it took him longer to get out of the building than a taller traditional sized point guard because of his height.

If saving a baby from a building were the objective then we could make a case for IT. If you analyze his "Sports Science" cameo, IT has the ability to drop his core axis extremely quick and lower than more traditional PG's. Thus running up the stairs and grabbing the baby may in fact be more suitable for his height/physique/strength.......

[tarheelsxxiii]

I feel bad for IT. He could save a baby from a burning buidling and people on here would complain it took him longer to get out of the building than a taller traditional sized point guard because of his height.

TP