My non-Hayward team is to just bring back the current team, extending IT, Bradley, and Smart, and bringing back KO, while being patient as the kids grow into the stars that will continue to push us further forward. Trades can always be made in the future if a current starter loses his job to Brown/Fultz/whomever, or a star forces a trade, or wants to join via a sign-and-trade next summer. Cleveland and Golden State aren't going anywhere for a couple of years-- there's no need to force the issue, only to fall short.
Remember, the Celtics are still a young team, and a decent amount of growth is still possible internally. I think our current team overtakes the Cavs in 2019.
Maybe we can get a better rebounding big than Amir for the room exception, but aside from that, I'm for patience if Hayward doesn't come. I believe in Fultz' ability to be the scoring help IT needs by the spring of 2019, and I believe Jaylen Brown will be a two-way weapon by that same time. The goal was to build a sustainable contender, and losing sight of that goal this summer, when no combination of moves will put us ahead of Golden State for even next year, would be a mistake.
Yeah, but doesn't our Max slot expire after this year---I think we HAVE to use it on some free agent this summer...Cause not using it and Maxing IT alone would be stupid--Next year, you could Max IT and still go over the cap-Bird rights...?
It does, but I'd rather not give someone the max just because it's our last chance. Put a different way, if the Celtics max someone this year and IT next year, they will be able to afford to give one other player a contract in about the $10-12 million range, be that one of the three other free agents on our team in the next two years (Olynyk, AB, Smart), or someone from off the roster. Say they get Griffin, and keep Smart. The roster in two seasons will look like:
IT
Fultz
Brown
Griffin
Horford
Smart
Crowder
Zizic
Yabusele
A bunch of guys picked in the draft this year and next, and Nader
That roster will approach $140 million, with a tax bill of near $30 million, and has NINE players on it who will be in their 1st or 2nd year. I even moved Rozier to make it cheaper. It's a good team, but is it a championship one? How much better is it than our current roster? You can really do the same exercise with Hayward in there, and maybe get a big in there instead of Smart. I just don't know that a team that has 60% of its players as a rookie or second-year player will be a title contender. If Fultz is that special, it's not impossible, but you pretty much need him to be the best #1 overall pick since LeBron for that team to have a chance, and that's quite the hope.
If you just keep the current team, you can probably do it for $5-7 million cheaper, and $12-$15 million less in tax dollars, and let the young guys push from behind when they're ready, as opposed to necessitating that they be ready practically immediately. If and when they do push through, you can trade the vet you've got signed to a long-term deal, as well as future picks or prospects who haven't broken through yet if needed, for the solid veteran who fills a different role better, or perhaps the star player who's getting moved (in this case the picks are necessary). Potentially a sign-and-trade is even possible if you can stay below the apron, which you'd be a lot closer to in this scenario, meaning that George could still be a target in 2018, but in a way that gutted the rest of the roster a bit less.
Golden State is at a huge advantage right now, and Cleveland in a similar one, because they both have max contracts from the last CBA that took effect before this year's large cap spike. LeBron, Kyrie, and Love will make $80 million combined in 2018-2019, whereas maxed IT, a max FA, and Horford will make $90 million. The Cleveland trio is the better one unless LeBron proves to be mortal by then, and as they're cheaper by $10 million, they can probably afford the better supporting cast. Then you get to Golden State, where their top trio of Durant, Curry, and Klay will cost $90 million, be is unequivocally better than IT, Horford, and anyone, and they'll have Green as well as other depth.
Anyway, that's why I'm in favor of being patient. If the young guys prove elite immediately, they'll help elevate the current team, and create an opportunity to plug a hole elsewhere via trade. But if they don't, then you aren't passing Cleveland and Golden State even with a max signing, and you've boxed yourself into a bit of a corner.
Topic: Help prepare for life without Hayward (Read 3753 times)