AB vs IT question/poll

[Csfan1984]

IT hands down. It's great how far Bradley has come, but he's completely replaceable by Smart, Brown, Hayward or Fultz. Offensively, Bradley is an average starter. Defensively, he's good but not great. He also has health issues.

Meanwhile, IT is one of the best offensive players in the league, and we have a chance to bring in the #1 pick AND a better player in Hayward.

Context is important. I love AB and I'd love to keep him, but I think people are out of their minds if they want to keep a 6'2" shooting guard who scores 15 ppg over a 2nd team All-Star face of the franchise with a more unique skill set, when we are about to have 2-3 better shooting guards on the roster.

Doesn't IT also have health issues and isn't he undersized as well. You can't throw those knocks AB and ignore them in IT. Also we have PGs and SFs on the roster not other SGs. They are playing out of position when at SG. Do like the point about scoring and face of the franchise. From a business side of things IT is a better draw. Something to consider when it comes down to economics.

[Ilikesports17]

I expect both players to get more than this but given these contracts I'm going Thomas

[RodyTur10]

I'm not even sure that AB will sign for $22 million. George Hill is seeking a max deal and apparently turned down a 3 year extension that would have paid $88.6 million (!)  He was allegedly advised that he can do much better this summer.

So in your opinion what's Bradley's value in the open market?

Well, it depends on what teams have money, but I'd say he asks for 4 years, $110 million, minimum.

Minimum? 27.5 million per year is 2.8 million short of this year's max . Do you even see him asking for 30+ million next year?

Again, a 31 year old George Hill turned down $29.5 million per year.  AB will ask for the max. I expect he'll settle for less than that, but almost certainly not $22 million.

That's crazy money. At some point all those teams will run out of cap space. In another thread about the luxury tax I showed what 'normal' salaries will become to be. If GM's will go along with this madness of players and agents there will be a very strange market for free agents in 2019 or 2020.

The players that are underpaid right now and will be looking for the next big payday will find out that by then all the money has gone and that they have to settle to be underpaid again.

[Monkhouse]

Context matters. On one hand, you could argue Bradley's age, two-way prowress, and evident proof that he can give Curry, Kyrie, and the likes of them; an absolutely horrific contested night.

You can then point out that Isaiah Thomas has had an eventful, if not, one of the most impressive seasons for someone of his 'stature.'

28.9 PPG, top 3 scorer, and clutch in the regular season, and he has proved he can do it in the 4th quarter. He can get buckets.

The question is, who fits more of a need?

Do we a need scorer more, or a defender or two way player that is above average more?

Isaiah Thomas is going to get at least close to point blank range his desired contract, from some team that is desperate, or just hoping to score big.

I can actually envision the Mavericks giving him an max.

[Jvalin]

I'm not even sure that AB will sign for $22 million. George Hill is seeking a max deal and apparently turned down a 3 year extension that would have paid $88.6 million (!)  He was allegedly advised that he can do much better this summer.

So in your opinion what's Bradley's value in the open market?

Well, it depends on what teams have money, but I'd say he asks for 4 years, $110 million, minimum.

Minimum? 27.5 million per year is 2.8 million short of this year's max . Do you even see him asking for 30+ million next year?

Again, a 31 year old George Hill turned down $29.5 million per year.  AB will ask for the max. I expect he'll settle for less than that, but almost certainly not $22 million.

I guess he can ask for whatever he wants... Don't see any team offering him that kind of money. Having said that, I really don't know what to expect anymore. I mean, in a world where Joakim Noah is worth 18 million a year, who 's to say Bradley isn't worth 30 or something??

[OldSchoolDude]

IT hands down. It's great how far Bradley has come, but he's completely replaceable by Smart, Brown, Hayward or Fultz. Offensively, Bradley is an average starter. Defensively, he's good but not great. He also has health issues.

Meanwhile, IT is one of the best offensive players in the league, and we have a chance to bring in the #1 pick AND a better player in Hayward.

Context is important. I love AB and I'd love to keep him, but I think people are out of their minds if they want to keep a 6'2" shooting guard who scores 15 ppg over a 2nd team All-Star face of the franchise with a more unique skill set, when we are about to have 2-3 better shooting guards on the roster.

Doesn't IT also have health issues and isn't he undersized as well. You can't throw those knocks AB and ignore them in IT. Also we have PGs and SFs on the roster not other SGs. They are playing out of position when at SG. Do like the point about scoring and face of the franchise. From a business side of things IT is a better draw. Something to consider when it comes down to economics.

FYI Bradley was second team NBA all defensive team in 2013 and first team NBA all defensive team in 2016.  So that seems better than just good.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/awards/all_defense.html

IT is badly undersized and the effect it really has on our defense is down played a lot.   It's not just IT's man that is effected it is the whole defensive scheme as players have to play a lot of help defense and they end up out of position on their man trying to cheat off of their man to be in a position to help IT when he needs it.

IT's game is based off of speed.  Without it is he is a 5'9 spot up shooter.  When Mike Miller lost a step, ok two steps, he was still effective defensively and tall enough to shoot over people.  IT even needs to use his speed to get open for a spot up shot.  It may hurt to hear it but without his speed IT is really useless. Right now the jury is out on his injury.  We don't know if it needs surgery or not. And regardless we don't know how its going to effect his speed.  29 at the end of his current deal, IT is at that age where players loos a step.  How his game would transition into his 30's was a legit question before the injury, and now it is a serious risk, even if this injury isn't bad he may not be able to take the pounding of playing starters minutes any more. 

Really our future back court needs to be Fultz and Brown, so either IT or Bradley would have to move to the bench at some point, sooner rather than latter.  Bradley's play style, demeanor, and anticipated contract (Significantly less than what IT would get) would make him a better candidate for the back up SG role than IT for the Back up PG or SG role.   Bradley is the type of glue guy we need on a championship bench.

[td450]

It will be very interesting to see what Avery asks for.  I could see him being willing to sign for $20M/per if he can be a Celtic and a contender for the rest of his career, but he would be walking away from serious money. I don't think he sees the world like a typical NBA player, and he would still end up making +$150M by the time he's 32. He may be OK with that. I'm sure he realizes he will have to choose between maximizing his earnings and remaining in Boston, and possibly even staying on a contender. Its pretty obvious that means a lot to him, but whether its more important than an extra boatload of cash....

If we land Hayward, I think AB would be better in the longer term.

[loco_91]

Neither of those deals is exactly a bargain. My ranking of Smart, AB and IT is basically:
IT > Smart > AB
Smart + AB > IT
And specific $$$ value just depends on willingness of ownership to pay the tax.

[byennie]

FYI Bradley was second team NBA all defensive team in 2013 and first team NBA all defensive team in 2016.  So that seems better than just good.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/awards/all_defense.html

IT is badly undersized and the effect it really has on our defense is down played a lot.   It's not just IT's man that is effected it is the whole defensive scheme as players have to play a lot of help defense and they end up out of position on their man trying to cheat off of their man to be in a position to help IT when he needs it.

IT's game is based off of speed.  Without it is he is a 5'9 spot up shooter.  When Mike Miller lost a step, ok two steps, he was still effective defensively and tall enough to shoot over people.  IT even needs to use his speed to get open for a spot up shot.  It may hurt to hear it but without his speed IT is really useless. Right now the jury is out on his injury.  We don't know if it needs surgery or not. And regardless we don't know how its going to effect his speed.  29 at the end of his current deal, IT is at that age where players loos a step.  How his game would transition into his 30's was a legit question before the injury, and now it is a serious risk, even if this injury isn't bad he may not be able to take the pounding of playing starters minutes any more. 

Really our future back court needs to be Fultz and Brown, so either IT or Bradley would have to move to the bench at some point, sooner rather than latter.  Bradley's play style, demeanor, and anticipated contract (Significantly less than what IT would get) would make him a better candidate for the back up SG role than IT for the Back up PG or SG role.   Bradley is the type of glue guy we need on a championship bench.

I'm aware of Bradley's awards, but sadly I think they are mostly hype. He can be very good in spurts but pretty much every defensive metric rates him as nothing special. I rarely seeing him shutting anyone down, more like a few highlights here and there. For every time he's terrorized a Jameer Nelson, he gives up 30 point games. Awards are good, but I think all the numbers support my theory of good-not-great. Smart for example blows him away and that shouldn't be possible if you belong on the All-Defense team yourself.

I share some concerns about IT as he ages, but I think they are overstated. He's in his absolute prime right now at 28 and he's got less than 500 games of wear and tear. He's a responsible guy who takes care of his body. His game involves shooting high percentages from everywhere on the court and using change of speed, floaters, etc. He's not getting his points at the rim. Yes, his defense is a concern, but it's a scorer's league right now. Being one of the 5 more dangerous scorers is worth it if you do anything above lying down on defense.

All that said, I'm only debating the two against each other because that's the thread. If Fultz and Brown are both future stars, we can risk IT being overpaid at the end of his contract IMO, because those guys will be bargains in the meantime.

[Vermont Green]

If it is going to cost $25M-$30M for the likes Hill Bradley, I think we will be better off going with our rookies and young players.  No need to tie up that much money with that caliber of player.

[ChillyWilly]

I'm aware of Bradley's awards, but sadly I think they are mostly hype. He can be very good in spurts but pretty much every defensive metric rates him as nothing special. I rarely seeing him shutting anyone down, more like a few highlights here and there. For every time he's terrorized a Jameer Nelson, he gives up 30 point games. Awards are good, but I think all the numbers support my theory of good-not-great. Smart for example blows him away and that shouldn't be possible if you belong on the All-Defense team yourself.

We must be watching different games. Smart is the highlight reel creator but gets beat far more often than AB. Avery makes his guy work for every inch even when they try to run around multiple screens to loose him. Rarely see AB do highlight stuff on defense because he's in the right position more often than not. Sure some guys torch him but some guys torch someone every night.

Maybe I'm an AB fan boy.

[Ilikesports17]

I'm aware of Bradley's awards, but sadly I think they are mostly hype. He can be very good in spurts but pretty much every defensive metric rates him as nothing special. I rarely seeing him shutting anyone down, more like a few highlights here and there. For every time he's terrorized a Jameer Nelson, he gives up 30 point games. Awards are good, but I think all the numbers support my theory of good-not-great. Smart for example blows him away and that shouldn't be possible if you belong on the All-Defense team yourself.

We must be watching different games. Smart is the highlight reel creator but gets beat far more often than AB. Avery makes his guy work for every inch even when they try to run around multiple screens to loose him. Rarely see AB do highlight stuff on defense because he's in the right position more often than not. Sure some guys torch him but some guys torch someone every night.

Maybe I'm an AB fan boy.

I don't think this is what you meant by "in the right position" but Marcus Smart is a much better off-ball defender and has better defensive awareness by my eye.

Bradley is overrated in my opinion as well. Still really good, but inconsistent and overrated.

[jambr380]

I'm not sure how to answer since I am 50/50 on who will actually get paid more on the open market. It sounds ridiculous, but AB's value around the league is sky-high right now and he might cost more than IT. If we don't deal him this off-season, I think we will get some pretty decent offers from contenders at the deadline since it will give those teams AB's Bird Rights along with a great addition to a playoff run.

[OldSchoolDude]

FYI Bradley was second team NBA all defensive team in 2013 and first team NBA all defensive team in 2016.  So that seems better than just good.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/awards/all_defense.html

IT is badly undersized and the effect it really has on our defense is down played a lot.   It's not just IT's man that is effected it is the whole defensive scheme as players have to play a lot of help defense and they end up out of position on their man trying to cheat off of their man to be in a position to help IT when he needs it.

IT's game is based off of speed.  Without it is he is a 5'9 spot up shooter.  When Mike Miller lost a step, ok two steps, he was still effective defensively and tall enough to shoot over people.  IT even needs to use his speed to get open for a spot up shot.  It may hurt to hear it but without his speed IT is really useless. Right now the jury is out on his injury.  We don't know if it needs surgery or not. And regardless we don't know how its going to effect his speed.  29 at the end of his current deal, IT is at that age where players loos a step.  How his game would transition into his 30's was a legit question before the injury, and now it is a serious risk, even if this injury isn't bad he may not be able to take the pounding of playing starters minutes any more. 

Really our future back court needs to be Fultz and Brown, so either IT or Bradley would have to move to the bench at some point, sooner rather than latter.  Bradley's play style, demeanor, and anticipated contract (Significantly less than what IT would get) would make him a better candidate for the back up SG role than IT for the Back up PG or SG role.   Bradley is the type of glue guy we need on a championship bench.

I'm aware of Bradley's awards, but sadly I think they are mostly hype. He can be very good in spurts but pretty much every defensive metric rates him as nothing special. I rarely seeing him shutting anyone down, more like a few highlights here and there. For every time he's terrorized a Jameer Nelson, he gives up 30 point games. Awards are good, but I think all the numbers support my theory of good-not-great. Smart for example blows him away and that shouldn't be possible if you belong on the All-Defense team yourself.

I share some concerns about IT as he ages, but I think they are overstated. He's in his absolute prime right now at 28 and he's got less than 500 games of wear and tear. He's a responsible guy who takes care of his body. His game involves shooting high percentages from everywhere on the court and using change of speed, floaters, etc. He's not getting his points at the rim. Yes, his defense is a concern, but it's a scorer's league right now. Being one of the 5 more dangerous scorers is worth it if you do anything above lying down on defense.

All that said, I'm only debating the two against each other because that's the thread. If Fultz and Brown are both future stars, we can risk IT being overpaid at the end of his contract IMO, because those guys will be bargains in the meantime.

We need to part ways with at least two of IT, Smart, Rozier, Bradelly

I rank them this way:

Offense                  Defense                  Cost (High to Low)

1.  IT                     1. Smart                 1. IT
2. Bradley              2. Bradley               2. Bradley
3. Rozier                3. Rozier                 3. Smart
4. Smart                4. IT                       4. Rozier

While I think IT and Smart are popular keeper choices, I think that Bradley and Rozier are the better choice.
1. They are cheeper, which is a big consideration.
2. As a second unit back court Bradley and Rozier will be able to provide enough offense, both can shoot the 3 and Rozier has shown the ability to get his own shot.  Also, they are both able to score efficiently on minimal shot attempts.
3. IT is a volume scorer and he really need lots of shots and thus lots of minutes to be effective. Smart is just not that good offensively.
4. Defensively, while Smart is great IT is so bad he just makes everyone around him worse.
5. Defensively Bradley is rock solid and Rozier is no slouch and getting better every day.

So, in line with the poll I take Bradley over IT.   To this end:

PG:  Fultz/ Rozier
SG:  Brown/ Bradley

[byennie]

I'm aware of Bradley's awards, but sadly I think they are mostly hype. He can be very good in spurts but pretty much every defensive metric rates him as nothing special. I rarely seeing him shutting anyone down, more like a few highlights here and there. For every time he's terrorized a Jameer Nelson, he gives up 30 point games. Awards are good, but I think all the numbers support my theory of good-not-great. Smart for example blows him away and that shouldn't be possible if you belong on the All-Defense team yourself.

We must be watching different games. Smart is the highlight reel creator but gets beat far more often than AB. Avery makes his guy work for every inch even when they try to run around multiple screens to loose him. Rarely see AB do highlight stuff on defense because he's in the right position more often than not. Sure some guys torch him but some guys torch someone every night.

Maybe I'm an AB fan boy.

I'd be the first to admit defensive metrics are tricky, but for example:

Smart beats Bradley by almost 2 points per 100 possessions in DBPM (defensive +/-)

According to NBA.com, Smart was 33rd in the league in defensive win shares. Bradley was 168th. Smart had a defensive rating 3 points higher playing the same position on the same team.

Not conclusive by any stretch, but I think Bradley's defense peaked guarding PGs earlier in his career, he's still good, but he was overrated when he won the 2016 award. It's all relative.