If Ainge doesn't draft Markelle Fultz...

[Tr1boy]

If Danny Ainge drafts Lonzo Ball he should be fired on the spot.

Lavar will fly to boston with a pitchfork

You drafted my son #1?? Are you crazy

[Sketch5]

Its not even a question, dannys interviews basically confirms it'll be fultz

How so?

Rich toucher asked if he has one or two players in mind

Danny said no

Even with Fultz considered to go #1...Danny will workout 3-4 top prospects

He also has said they needed scoring. And how hard it is to come by. So I'd put Fultz in tops to get drafted, unless he shows poorly during work outs. Which then you could see either a trade down, or they just pick Jackson or Tatum.

[Sketch5]

If Danny Ainge drafts Lonzo Ball he should be fired on the spot.

Lavar will fly to boston with a pitchfork

You drafted my son #1?? Are you crazy

I like how Lavar said Fultz is a good player, but couldn't handle playing in LA.

Yeah I'm pretty sure the standards in LA are pretty low right now compared to Boston. Ball would get eaten up by the media.

And Fans

[DarkAzcura]

If Danny Ainge drafts Lonzo Ball he should be fired on the spot.

Lavar will fly to boston with a pitchfork

You drafted my son #1?? Are you crazy

I like how Lavar said Fultz is a good player, but couldn't handle playing in LA.

Yeah I'm pretty sure the standards in LA are pretty low right now compared to Boston. Ball would get eaten up by the media.

And Fans

It's a little different. Boston's local media and fans are way more harsh on their teams than LA, but LAL has a larger national media spotlight on them.

[CelticsJG]

My biggest fear is Danny Ainge over thinking this. Fultz or bust.

[jambr380]

If Danny wants Jackson or Tatum, he will simply make a trade with Philly who would kill to have Fultz. We would be able to pick up another really good asset in the process, as well.

I do not this will be the case; Ainge can't just run around telling everybody he is going to draft Fultz, but he obviously will. He is the clear-cut top prospect. If we keep the pick, it is a no-brainer. Let's just enjoy this opportunity - it doesn't happen very often.

[BitterJim]

If Danny Ainge drafts Lonzo Ball he should be fired on the spot.

Didn't people say the exact same thing about Jaylen Brown?

[hwangjini_1]

If Danny Ainge drafts Lonzo Ball he should be fired on the spot.

Didn't people say the exact same thing about Jaylen Brown?

and a few dozen other things.

[BaronV]

This has me worried. I know it's our first #1 pick in ages and we have control of our destiny but I really hope Ainge does not overthink this. Here is a snapshot of his draft history:

2011 - JaJuan Johnson over Jimmy Butler (excusable as no one saw Jimmy Butler coming)
2012 - Sullinger and Melo over picks like Draymond and Crowder (ok still excusable)
2013 - Olynyk over Giannis (slightly less inexcusable despite Game 7 last week as Giannis had a bit of hype before the draft. Gobert was on the table as well if Ainge really wanted a Center.)
2014 - Young over Hood (This I don't get as they both were doing the same thing in college but Hood was more polished and ready to contribute.)
2015 - Rozier over Portis (Terry's doing fine and it's still early but I had a feeling before the draft that  Portis will be a beast and this may happen sooner than later.)
2016 - Jaylen Brown (I love Jaylen Brown)

I am really praying Ainge doesn't talk himself into Ball or Jackson (fine players but I don't see them as gamechangers like I do Fultz). 34 days left!!

Here are some Fultz highlights that I hope Ainge is watching!!!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jHYCFBASl_4
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aEFg-5BApQA
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Hjkkrwoias

Note that most of these picks were in the middle of the first round, with the exception of Brown last year and Smart in 2014.  At that point in the draft, getting a good player is mostly a crapshoot, and Ainge has been pretty good at finding gems in that range (Rondo, Bradley, Sully, Al Jefferson, Delonte, Tony Allen, Perk), either drafting them or trading for them.  Sure, guys like Young, JJJ, and especially Fab Melo didn't work out, but his hit rate with mediocre picks has been pretty good.  I have faith that he'll have a pretty good idea of who to take at the top of the draft. 

[tarheelsxxiii]

[Celtics4ever]

2011 - JaJuan Johnson over Jimmy Butler (excusable as no one saw Jimmy Butler coming)

Ainge did not draft Johnson did him didn't he trade for him?

2012 - Sullinger and Melo over picks like Draymond and Crowder (ok still excusable)

Melo was not a great college player so he does not get off free for that one.  On Sully he rolled the dice and got burnt by the guy's lack of a professional work ethic.

2013 - Olynyk over Giannis (slightly less inexcusable despite Game 7 last week as Giannis had a bit of hype before the draft. Gobert was on the table as well if Ainge really wanted a Center.)

In retrospect, he blew this one.   But Ainge took who he thought was best.

2014 - Young over Hood (This I don't get as they both were doing the same thing in college but Hood was more polished and ready to contribute.)

Young was a gamble , sometimes you win sometimes you lose when you gamble.

2015 - Rozier over Portis (Terry's doing fine and it's still early but I had a feeling before the draft that  Portis will be a beast and this may happen sooner than later.)

I think the jury is still out on this one.   Portis can play but he did not help Chicago beat us and let us be honest his performance waned over the series.   I do think Ainge know guards as he played that position and feels most comfortable playing that position.

2016 - Jaylen Brown (I love Jaylen Brown)

Brown is going to be a good player some day, I think.

I do think Ainge worst aspect as a GM is his drafting but I think that he is a top five GM in the game and excels at finding guys who can play later in the draft.   I think he has a philosophy of taking gambles and guys who can play regardless of whether they have a NBA position.   Hence, we have a lot of positionless guys who do not fit classic NBA prototypes and some of them can be tweeners.   That being said, I trust Ainge.    I do think that Sam Presti is better at drafting than Ainge.

I also do not think it is a given we take Fultz.  Ainge is not afraid to go against the grain.   He will work guys out and evaluate who he wants and take that person.   It might be Fultz but I could see him trading down if he likes a guy later in the round.   It will be interesting to see what he does with such a high pick.

Ainge may take some heat about Smart if his shot does not improve in a few years.   I think he is what he is and he makes winning plays but I no longer expect him to score a ton.   I am happy when he shows some judgment of his shot selection.

[Csfan1984]

I had it
-Butler >Brooks/JJ can't believe Butler was there.
-Sully I wanted no part of but they could of had Sully and Green.
-I screamed for the Greek freak and wanted no part of KO.
-I had that year Harris>Young then Hood after those guys. Hood seemed like a max out player already and in truth he is. Young completely busted though.
-Portis>>>Rozier. Rozier does have his moments though surprisingly.

Too early to tell on 2016 but I had Murray and Brown tied with the upside of Brown being higher and the floor of Murray being higher than Brown. I did like Bender but I felt I couldn't judge him based on his competition left him up to DA.

[ThaPreacher]

If Danny Ainge drafts Lonzo Ball he should be fired on the spot.

LOL. I guess you ain't no BIG Baller!   
Holla!

[mr. dee]

Its not even a question, dannys interviews basically confirms it'll be fultz

How so?

Rich toucher asked if he has one or two players in mind

Danny said no

Even with Fultz considered to go #1...Danny will workout 3-4 top prospects

Its called due diligence.  And, if DA does end up going in another direction you better believe it's because he feels that player is better.  So you may not like it, but I think I'm going to trust DA rather lock into a certain player (though I too think fultz is the best player).

Oden was the #1 consensus back then and Danny have set his eyes on Durant already. I mean Oden was a complete package coming out of college and the most NBA ready and Durant was still project. If you asked any GM if they prefer an NBA-ready center or a project forward, 9/10 they would pick the former. You can check many mock drafts back in 2007 and Oden was the #1 pick in their list.

Being #1 consensus doesn't really guarantee results. Ingram was projected to be better than Jaylen, but look who's more productive in their rookie campaign.

[Granath]

I had it
-Butler >Brooks/JJ can't believe Butler was there.
-Sully I wanted no part of but they could of had Sully and Green.
-I screamed for the Greek freak and wanted no part of KO.
-I had that year Harris>Young then Hood after those guys. Hood seemed like a max out player already and in truth he is. Young completely busted though.
-Portis>>>Rozier. Rozier does have his moments though surprisingly.

Too early to tell on 2016 but I had Murray and Brown tied with the upside of Brown being higher and the floor of Murray being higher than Brown. I did like Bender but I felt I couldn't judge him based on his competition left him up to DA.

Proof? Otherwise, the above post is bunk.

To the OP: Once you get to the 20s, it's a serious crapshoot. For instance, take the Draymond Green example. He went 35th. Melo went 22. There were 12 picks between them at a point in the draft that any GM could have easily moved into to snag Green. No one did. So calling Draymond a miss is a miss for every single team in the NBA - including Golden State for leaving him out there so long. If they knew what he would be they would have traded way up to get him.

Trying to look at the draft 5 years later and say "we should have taken so-and-so" is an absolutely useless exercise. Hindsight is 20/20. We talk like this stuff is obvious but it's not and I don't remember anyone on any forum lamenting the Fab Melo pick saying "we should have taken Crowder/Green instead".

If you're going to judge every GM by their misses, then every single GM sucks because they'll miss more than they hit. Does anyone think that San Antonio's GM sucks because they took Corey Joseph one pick ahead of Jimmy Butler? I'm sure Houston would go back to 1983 and take Michael Jordan even though they did fine with Hakeem.

The trick is to beat the average. Go back and re-draft and see if your GM's performance was better or worse. And on that measurement Danny does just fine.