I am sick of hearing about KO's stretch effect, especially this year. His stretch effect is he is an average to slightly below average three point shooter this year. Every big on the roster plays along the three point line and rarely post up. All the bigs on the roster pass at an above average rate for their size. KO has been most effective cutting to the basket for easy layins this year. His two point FG% shows this. Its what has kept his TS% at a good rate as his FT% is down as well as his 3PT%.
He is a good positional defender but gets exposed on 1-4 or 2-4 switches against good outside shooters because he doesn't have the quickness or length to close out. He is a poor rim protector. He still is rasily moved on the block and consistently gets outrebounded by more athletic bigs. He is a horrid rebounder for a seven footer. 12% TRB% for a 7 footer is horrible no matter how you slice it.
I am convinced he can easily be replaced with a good rebounding, defensive big that can cut to the basket from the three point line, do some post up work and get offensive rebounds. The player would be different but overall I think that type of player would make the Celtics a better team.
Al Horford is valuable to this team. This team could move on from Olynyk and not feel his absence very muvh, especially if he is replaced with a better rebounding, tougher, more athletic big.
Well, no, not if you divide it into offensive and defensive rebounding and consider the context. He brings in 20.0% of defensive rebounds (tops on the team and on par with guys like Paul Millsap at 19.6%, Tristian Thompson at 20.7%, and Myles Turner at 19.5%) which is not elite, but it good and above average. His offensive rebounding (at a pitiful 5.0%) is what brings down his TRB% to 12.5%. However, given his role of staying outside on offense and our team's lack of focus on offensive rebounding, this shouldn't be a surprise. And actually, his 5.0% puts him in the top 20 among NBA players who make ~1 3 pointer or more per game, which means that when you consider his role (as a floor stretcher) on offense, he's not actually that bad of an offensive rebounder.
And on the subject of his 3p%, he shot 40.5% in January and 41.9% in February from three point land. He's just 1 of 10 in March (which I have no explanation for. It's a bit of a small sample size, but you'd still expect him to be shooting better that that), and struggled in November and December (unsurprising given that he had shoulder surgery this offseason), but he was hot going into the break. He should heat up again, and I don't think defenders are gonna leave him space even if he's struggling (not if they want to stay on the court, at least).
An elite rebounding/defensive big that can stretch the floor would obviously be an upgrade over Olynyk, but while we're waiting for that unicorn, having Olynyk, who is good (not great) on defense and on the boards and that stretches the floor is a great thing for the team (although a bit more consistency would be nice)
