Trying to trick fans/media with draft protections?

[celticsclay]

I meant to ask this last week when it was announced but have not had chance to yet. In the trade between Dallas and Philadelphia, Dallas did one of the weirdest draft pick protections I have ever seen. They made the pick top 18 protected for this year and then two second round picks for following years if it does not convey.

Now the media, press release and 76ers announcement all led with this as a first round pick and justin anderson for Noel. However, when you dig into it, it is impossible for this pick to convey. To pick 19th the Mavericks would have to not only make the playoffs, but finish with a better record than 4 teams that do make the playoffs. The team the 76ers would have had to pass would have been the Atlanta Hawks (in addition to all the other teams).

At the time of the trade the Hawks were 32-24
The Mavericks were 22-34
The trade was made with 24 games left meaning the Mavs would have to pass 11 teams and go undefeated while hoping other teams all played bad. I saw an estimate the chances of it were .003%

Why is this interesting> I have never seen teams try to make a trade like this where the protections only serve to confuse people don't bother to do the math on this. Does anyone else remember something like this happening? What is the point of doing this?

[Who]

See it done with 2nd round picks (top 55 protected type of thing) but not 1st rounders.

[adam8]

See it done with 2nd round picks (top 55 protected type of thing) but not 1st rounders.

Yeah and this is normally done in a salary dump because you can't trade a player for nothing so you trade him for such a highly protected pick that it just turns into nothing after it doesn't convey.

[D Dub]

I'm sure LrBrd33 will be by shortly to explain all the hidden value Philly brokered out of the deal. 

RIP: the process. 

[colincb]

Strange given how highly unlikely the 1st was to convey to the Sixers. Wouldn't be surprised if you are right.

Sixer fans saw through it quickly, but getting a lot for a guy going into FA that everyone knew you had to realistically deal is tough to do. Just too much BS by Hinkie and his worshippers, including a few grasshoppers here who pay homage to the guru. Obviously Noel was being showcased, but they thought the Sixers would re-sign him if they didn't get equal value (fat chance) blah, blah, blah.

[celticsclay]

Strange given how highly unlikely the 1st was to convey to the Sixers. Wouldn't be surprised if you are right.

Sixer fans saw through it quickly, but getting a lot for a guy going into FA that everyone knew you had to realistically deal is tough to do. Just too much BS by Hinkie and his worshippers, including a few grasshoppers here who pay homage to the guru. Obviously Noel was being showcased, but they thought the Sixers would re-sign him if they didn't get equal value (fat chance) blah, blah, blah.

While this is true, I do see a number of people saying "possible first" when discussing the trade. Here and elsewhere. When you look at the math it is flat out impossible. Strange to think the coverage leads with the framing of something that is not possible.

[Denis998]

The Process was trusted for a year too much

[tazzmaniac]

Strange given how highly unlikely the 1st was to convey to the Sixers. Wouldn't be surprised if you are right.

Sixer fans saw through it quickly, but getting a lot for a guy going into FA that everyone knew you had to realistically deal is tough to do. Just too much BS by Hinkie and his worshippers, including a few grasshoppers here who pay homage to the guru. Obviously Noel was being showcased, but they thought the Sixers would re-sign him if they didn't get equal value (fat chance) blah, blah, blah.

While this is true, I do see a number of people saying "possible first" when discussing the trade. Here and elsewhere. When you look at the math it is flat out impossible. Strange to think the coverage leads with the framing of something that is not possible.

Not exactly impossible but pretty darn close.  Miami has done a complete turnaround winning 16 of 18 games so maybe Dallas could.  They'd also need OKC or the Hawks to implode.  The former would happen with a Westbrook injury.  The Hawks had a stretch where they went 1-10.  The thing is if this highly unlikely scenario started to occur Dallas could just tank a couple games to make sure they finish 17th or 18th.   

As to why the protections were done, it was clearly a PR move to try to get better headlines.  That may also be why Embiid played the nationally televised Houston game, after the knee injury in the Portland game, even though they've been very conservative with his playing time otherwise.  The LibertyBallers don't think much of their ownership or front office folks (Colangelos and Scott O'Niel).  Two areas where we're well ahead of them as a franchise. 

[celticsclay]

Strange given how highly unlikely the 1st was to convey to the Sixers. Wouldn't be surprised if you are right.

Sixer fans saw through it quickly, but getting a lot for a guy going into FA that everyone knew you had to realistically deal is tough to do. Just too much BS by Hinkie and his worshippers, including a few grasshoppers here who pay homage to the guru. Obviously Noel was being showcased, but they thought the Sixers would re-sign him if they didn't get equal value (fat chance) blah, blah, blah.

While this is true, I do see a number of people saying "possible first" when discussing the trade. Here and elsewhere. When you look at the math it is flat out impossible. Strange to think the coverage leads with the framing of something that is not possible.

Not exactly impossible but pretty darn close.  Miami has done a complete turnaround winning 16 of 18 games so maybe Dallas could.  They'd also need OKC or the Hawks to implode.  The former would happen with a Westbrook injury.  The Hawks had a stretch where they went 1-10.  The thing is if this highly unlikely scenario started to occur Dallas could just tank a couple games to make sure they finish 17th or 18th.   

As to why the protections were done, it was clearly a PR move to try to get better headlines.  That may also be why Embiid played the nationally televised Houston game, after the knee injury in the Portland game, even though they've been very conservative with his playing time otherwise.  The LibertyBallers don't think much of their ownership or front office folks (Colangelos and Scott O'Niel).  Two areas where we're well ahead of them as a franchise.

Yea I was serious about the .003% chance. It involves passing literally 10 teams in 24 games. It is just really bizarre to see it marketed it this way in a press release also. For the record I think the luckiest thing to happen in the last year was BC taking over in Philly. They were positioned great and you are already seeing the assets go to waste because BC is a moron.

[Denis998]

Strange given how highly unlikely the 1st was to convey to the Sixers. Wouldn't be surprised if you are right.

Sixer fans saw through it quickly, but getting a lot for a guy going into FA that everyone knew you had to realistically deal is tough to do. Just too much BS by Hinkie and his worshippers, including a few grasshoppers here who pay homage to the guru. Obviously Noel was being showcased, but they thought the Sixers would re-sign him if they didn't get equal value (fat chance) blah, blah, blah.

While this is true, I do see a number of people saying "possible first" when discussing the trade. Here and elsewhere. When you look at the math it is flat out impossible. Strange to think the coverage leads with the framing of something that is not possible.

Not exactly impossible but pretty darn close.  Miami has done a complete turnaround winning 16 of 18 games so maybe Dallas could.  They'd also need OKC or the Hawks to implode.  The former would happen with a Westbrook injury.  The Hawks had a stretch where they went 1-10.  The thing is if this highly unlikely scenario started to occur Dallas could just tank a couple games to make sure they finish 17th or 18th.   

As to why the protections were done, it was clearly a PR move to try to get better headlines.  That may also be why Embiid played the nationally televised Houston game, after the knee injury in the Portland game, even though they've been very conservative with his playing time otherwise.  The LibertyBallers don't think much of their ownership or front office folks (Colangelos and Scott O'Niel).  Two areas where we're well ahead of them as a franchise.

Yea I was serious about the .003% chance. It involves passing literally 10 teams in 24 games. It is just really bizarre to see it marketed it this way in a press release also. For the record I think the luckiest thing to happen in the last year was BC taking over in Philly. They were positioned great and you are already seeing the assets go to waste because BC is a moron.

The way BC delt with Noel was very weird in the GMs perspective. They essentially gave him up for Anderson and 2 mid 2nd. I would have just matched any offer he got in RFA and traded that fresh contract to the highest bidder. I'm sure even Dallas would have given up something like a future top 5 protected 1st in that situation