As Most Of Us Believed/Hoped, Ainge Is Staying The Patient Course...

[Moranis]

What percentage of teams that build patiently with draft picks win titles?

What are the chances that any of our picks become all-stars, let alone HOF superstars (the type of draft picks that lift teams to titles).

Most title winners are led by drafted talent.  Even a team like the Heat while led by James (and Bosh) as free agents still had Wade, Haslem, and Chalmers as all drafted players starting for those teams (for a good portion of their run).  Cleveland is also a bit of an exception with James (though they did draft him in the prior stint and it is "hometown" team), but had Irving and Thompson and used drafted players to acquire Love. 

Golden State led by Curry, Thompson, Green.  San Antonio led by Duncan, Parker, Leonard, Ginobili.  Dallas led by Dirk.  Lakers led by Bryant with Bynum playing a key role (obviously Gasol played a key role).  Even the Celtics were led by Pierce, though obviously they don't win without Garnett and Allen. 

You obviously need to have some players from free agency or trades, but generally speaking every team that has won a title has had at least 1 drafted player in its top 2 players and many have both of said players being drafted by their team. 

[CoachBo]

I voted "small addition(s)"

Tucker, T. Jones, KOQ, Okafor...2 of those 4 would be nice right now. Nothing too costly.

Many of us look at this as a hugely missed opportunity with Cousins. I get that.

The worse thing to do now is to react because of it and make a "big" move giving up a bunch of assets to satisfy that empty feeling that perceived missed opportunity brings. A lot of bad decisions in life are made that way.

Stay the course, BPA in this loaded draft  and either Hayward (#1) or Milsap(#2) in FA for free and still have all those assets to either roll with, trade or some combination theeof.

What's the point of accruing assets if you're gonna do nothing with them.  Half our assets are either overseas or on the bench. Either freakin use them or get rid of them.  So sick of watching deadline after deadline pass and we get nothing.  Horford was the best we got! Aging Horford!  Either build now to win and use those assets to get cousins, which he ****ed up or take those assets and start developing them in the NBA.  The team assembled is a second round exit.  Why not bring those assets overand see what they can do. Move Mickey young and rozier and bring in Nader and zizic.  I don't care ****in do something already!  I'm still p---ed about not getting cousins.  That kid woulda been loved in Boston and this might have been the place to change him...no we get to look at olynyk sorry ass again.  I'll be the first to sign a petition that ainge and Brad go if they **** up this draft, the summer, and this tradeline another year!

Not doing anything with them yet =/= Never doing anything with them

Learn some patience.

So learn patience until....another group of assets come along then another then another ?  Um no, ainges job is to build a team not assets.  Every player on our team is tradeable. That means we've not upgraded to solidify a unit capable of staying together and competing for years. We've had 3 years of moveable parts which danny didn't move and that's all we're gonna have for years to come at this rate.  You wanna sit back and enjoy that?  Have fun.  I'd like to see another title

TP.

Winning titles is fun.

This board's draft obsession with the perpetual rebuild, not so much.

[CoachBo]

What percentage of teams that build patiently with draft picks win titles?

What are the chances that any of our picks become all-stars, let alone HOF superstars (the type of draft picks that lift teams to titles).

Most title winners are led by drafted talent.  Even a team like the Heat while led by James (and Bosh) as free agents still had Wade, Haslem, and Chalmers as all drafted players starting for those teams (for a good portion of their run).  Cleveland is also a bit of an exception with James (though they did draft him in the prior stint and it is "hometown" team), but had Irving and Thompson and used drafted players to acquire Love. 

Golden State led by Curry, Thompson, Green.  San Antonio led by Duncan, Parker, Leonard, Ginobili.  Dallas led by Dirk.  Lakers led by Bryant with Bynum playing a key role (obviously Gasol played a key role).  Even the Celtics were led by Pierce, though obviously they don't win without Garnett and Allen. 

You obviously need to have some players from free agency or trades, but generally speaking every team that has won a title has had at least 1 drafted player in its top 2 players and many have both of said players being drafted by their team.

Move the goal posts - to the point of bending them in half - much?

[wdleehi]

My take on this:

1.  Ainge has proven in the past he will make the big trade.
2.  Cousins was traded cheap.
3.  The Celtics do not believe Cousins is either the player to help them win or will re-sign.




I wanted to take a chance on him, but there is something about him that only a desperate team makes the move.

[Evantime34]

I hope Ainge's patience pays off. I think Boogie would have been a good fit, but if the Kings  were asking for Jaylen and the '17 Nets pick then I'm happy Ainge was patient.

There is a chance that the Kings just loved Buddy and valued him so highly that it would have cost more than Jaylen and the nets pick for him. At this point I trust Ainge's opinion in terms of value.

[Moranis]

What percentage of teams that build patiently with draft picks win titles?

What are the chances that any of our picks become all-stars, let alone HOF superstars (the type of draft picks that lift teams to titles).

Most title winners are led by drafted talent.  Even a team like the Heat while led by James (and Bosh) as free agents still had Wade, Haslem, and Chalmers as all drafted players starting for those teams (for a good portion of their run).  Cleveland is also a bit of an exception with James (though they did draft him in the prior stint and it is "hometown" team), but had Irving and Thompson and used drafted players to acquire Love. 

Golden State led by Curry, Thompson, Green.  San Antonio led by Duncan, Parker, Leonard, Ginobili.  Dallas led by Dirk.  Lakers led by Bryant with Bynum playing a key role (obviously Gasol played a key role).  Even the Celtics were led by Pierce, though obviously they don't win without Garnett and Allen. 

You obviously need to have some players from free agency or trades, but generally speaking every team that has won a title has had at least 1 drafted player in its top 2 players and many have both of said players being drafted by their team.

Move the goal posts - to the point of bending them in half - much?

that isn't moving the goal posts at all.  Championship teams build through the draft.  That doesn't mean every single player is a player that is drafted, but when was the last time a team won the title without at least 1 of its top 2 players being drafted by the franchise.  The only team that comes to mind is the early 00's Pistons, but that team is generally considered an anomaly as championship teams go.  The Warriors, Spurs x5, and Bulls x6 all had basically their top 3 or 4 players as drafted by the franchise. 

Teams build championship teams through the draft all the time.  That said, I have been a big proponent for making trades and can't believe Boston didn't acquire Cousins for that asking price.  It is absolutely ridiculous and Ainge should be feeling a lot of heat for not doing it.

[RJ87]

I hope Ainge's patience pays off. I think Boogie would have been a good fit, but if the Kings  were asking for Jaylen and the '17 Nets pick then I'm happy Ainge was patient.

They didn't ask for Jaylen and '17 because we weren't involved according reports. We legit sat this one out. Can't compliment an audience member for their patience if they're not in the fight .

[fairweatherfan]

It seems like much of the criticism in this sort of thread revolves around conflating "making any deals whatsoever with our assets" and "making THIS specific deal with our assets". They aren't the same issue. Passing on one deal, or several, doesn't compute to passing on all possible deals in perpetuity.

Given that Danny's made three blockbuster trades here - Ray+KG in 07, KG/Pierce in 13 - and all 3 have been clear wins for the franchise, plus initially disappointing trades like Rondo have pulled in guys like Crowder, and even a seemingly trivial move like freeing up cap space for Cleveland wound up helping us get IT, I think we should at least give him the benefit of the doubt that

- he's looking to make moves, constantly.
- he's going to pass on a lot of possible moves, even tempting ones, but the ones he makes will have a high likelihood of improving the team.

He's patient, maybe to a fault, but his trade track record has been very strong for a decade. Neither half of that should be particularly controversial.

[Phantom255x]

Many people seem irritated with what I've said.

Let me clear it up.

If a PG13 or Butler trade comes along and the price is fair or even cheaper than expected (like a three team deal with another team also providing assets), then of course, pull the trigger.

Reality is, it doesn't look like that will happen. So would you gut the current team (as in possibly give up two of Smart/Bradley/Crowder, Brown, 2017 Nets Pick and some extra) for Butler, or would you think Ainge would roll with this team the rest of the season, and try again this summer?

Even adding Butler alone to this team doesn't get us to the Finals, and to win a title I imagine someone like Lopez or another complementary move needs to happen (to help rebounding) to get us past Cleveland.

But adding Butler while gutting the team? Yeah, winning titles is fun for everyone (especially us Boston sports fans the last 16 years), but we're still not winning a title this season that way.

Am I wrong with this thought?

[BitterJim]

I voted "small addition(s)"

Tucker, T. Jones, KOQ, Okafor...2 of those 4 would be nice right now. Nothing too costly.

Many of us look at this as a hugely missed opportunity with Cousins. I get that.

The worse thing to do now is to react because of it and make a "big" move giving up a bunch of assets to satisfy that empty feeling that perceived missed opportunity brings. A lot of bad decisions in life are made that way.

Stay the course, BPA in this loaded draft  and either Hayward (#1) or Milsap(#2) in FA for free and still have all those assets to either roll with, trade or some combination theeof.

What's the point of accruing assets if you're gonna do nothing with them.  Half our assets are either overseas or on the bench. Either freakin use them or get rid of them.  So sick of watching deadline after deadline pass and we get nothing.  Horford was the best we got! Aging Horford!  Either build now to win and use those assets to get cousins, which he ****ed up or take those assets and start developing them in the NBA.  The team assembled is a second round exit.  Why not bring those assets overand see what they can do. Move Mickey young and rozier and bring in Nader and zizic.  I don't care ****in do something already!  I'm still p---ed about not getting cousins.  That kid woulda been loved in Boston and this might have been the place to change him...no we get to look at olynyk sorry ass again.  I'll be the first to sign a petition that ainge and Brad go if they **** up this draft, the summer, and this tradeline another year!

Not doing anything with them yet =/= Never doing anything with them

Learn some patience.

So learn patience until....another group of assets come along then another then another ?  Um no, ainges job is to build a team not assets.  Every player on our team is tradeable. That means we've not upgraded to solidify a unit capable of staying together and competing for years. We've had 3 years of moveable parts which danny didn't move and that's all we're gonna have for years to come at this rate.  You wanna sit back and enjoy that?  Have fun.  I'd like to see another title

No? When did I suggest that? I may not have to eat lunch at this rate, with all the words people have been putting in my mouth today.

Ainge's job is to build a team capable of winning championships, not to make every move that becomes available in an attempt to placate impatient fans.  The 2017 Nets pick, currently the best asset we have and the most valuable draft pick in the NBA, was nearly worthless 3 years ago.  Was Danny stupid to sit on that asset instead of using it in a deal to build around Rondo?  Sometimes the best moves are the ones you don't make, and sometimes you just have to wait and see.  The worst case scenario is not Danny holding onto assets and trying to build through the draft, like Philly - it's trading them away for a player that turns out not to be worth it, like the Nets.

We could use all of our assets to build a team that can contend for a finals appearance and never win a championship, as some people have been clamoring for. Or we can wait and see what Danny's gonna do over the next year and a half before he needs to make a decision regarding Thomas.  I'll gladly sit back and enjoy where we are rather than getting an ulcer every February and June just because Danny didn't make a trade or pick I wanted (speaking of which, how does everyone that was complaining about Danny taking Brown over Dunn and calling for him to be fired over it feel about that now?)

[cltc5]

Many people seem irritated with what I've said.

Let me clear it up.

If a PG13 or Butler trade comes along and the price is fair or even cheaper than expected (like a three team deal with another team also providing assets), then of course, pull the trigger.

Reality is, it doesn't look like that will happen. So would you gut the current team (as in possibly give up two of Smart/Bradley/Crowder, Brown, 2017 Nets Pick and some extra) for Butler, or would you think Ainge would roll with this team the rest of the season, and try again this summer?

Even adding Butler alone to this team doesn't get us to the Finals, and to win a title I imagine someone like Lopez or another complementary move needs to happen (to help rebounding) to get us past Cleveland.

But adding Butler while gutting the team? Yeah, winning titles is fun for everyone (especially us Boston sports fans the last 16 years), but we're still not winning a title this season that way.

Am I wrong with this thought?

At this point now you do nothing unless you can get butler for non essential picks rozier Bradley and some other stuffs.  Otherwise, hold with what you have and address the rebounding issue which might mean grabbing Lopez or someone of that nature. This adding players just to move them down the road is nonsense

[CoachBo]

I voted "small addition(s)"

Tucker, T. Jones, KOQ, Okafor...2 of those 4 would be nice right now. Nothing too costly.

Many of us look at this as a hugely missed opportunity with Cousins. I get that.

The worse thing to do now is to react because of it and make a "big" move giving up a bunch of assets to satisfy that empty feeling that perceived missed opportunity brings. A lot of bad decisions in life are made that way.

Stay the course, BPA in this loaded draft  and either Hayward (#1) or Milsap(#2) in FA for free and still have all those assets to either roll with, trade or some combination theeof.

What's the point of accruing assets if you're gonna do nothing with them.  Half our assets are either overseas or on the bench. Either freakin use them or get rid of them.  So sick of watching deadline after deadline pass and we get nothing.  Horford was the best we got! Aging Horford!  Either build now to win and use those assets to get cousins, which he ****ed up or take those assets and start developing them in the NBA.  The team assembled is a second round exit.  Why not bring those assets overand see what they can do. Move Mickey young and rozier and bring in Nader and zizic.  I don't care ****in do something already!  I'm still p---ed about not getting cousins.  That kid woulda been loved in Boston and this might have been the place to change him...no we get to look at olynyk sorry ass again.  I'll be the first to sign a petition that ainge and Brad go if they **** up this draft, the summer, and this tradeline another year!

Not doing anything with them yet =/= Never doing anything with them

Learn some patience.

So learn patience until....another group of assets come along then another then another ?  Um no, ainges job is to build a team not assets.  Every player on our team is tradeable. That means we've not upgraded to solidify a unit capable of staying together and competing for years. We've had 3 years of moveable parts which danny didn't move and that's all we're gonna have for years to come at this rate.  You wanna sit back and enjoy that?  Have fun.  I'd like to see another title

No? When did I suggest that? I may not have to eat lunch at this rate, with all the words people have been putting in my mouth today.

Ainge's job is to build a team capable of winning championships, not to make every move that becomes available in an attempt to placate impatient fans.  The 2017 Nets pick, currently the best asset we have and the most valuable draft pick in the NBA, was nearly worthless 3 years ago.  Was Danny stupid to sit on that asset instead of using it in a deal to build around Rondo?  Sometimes the best moves are the ones you don't make, and sometimes you just have to wait and see.  The worst case scenario is not Danny holding onto assets and trying to build through the draft, like Philly - it's trading them away for a player that turns out not to be worth it, like the Nets.

We could use all of our assets to build a team that can contend for a finals appearance and never win a championship, as some people have been clamoring for. Or we can wait and see what Danny's gonna do over the next year and a half before he needs to make a decision regarding Thomas.  I'll gladly sit back and enjoy where we are rather than getting an ulcer every February and June just because Danny didn't make a trade or pick I wanted (speaking of which, how does everyone that was complaining about Danny taking Brown over Dunn and calling for him to be fired over it feel about that now?)

Still would have drafted Dunn and traded him in a Butler deal. Not going to join the crowd on this blog ready to induct Brown - with his erratic shot, bad handle, questionable distribution skills, et al. - into the Hall of Fame.

[PhoSita]

Regarding team building strategies, the question is not how most title winners were built. All team building strategies have a low likelihood of leading to a title.

The question is how most contenders (55+ wins, making the conference finals, however you want to define it) are built.

To me, it seems like the name of the game on that score is getting elite talent. As much of it as possible. The draft, trades, free agency are just means to that end. Compile elite talent and hold onto it for as long as possible. That's how you increase your chances of winning a title.

[cltc5]

I voted "small addition(s)"

Tucker, T. Jones, KOQ, Okafor...2 of those 4 would be nice right now. Nothing too costly.

Many of us look at this as a hugely missed opportunity with Cousins. I get that.

The worse thing to do now is to react because of it and make a "big" move giving up a bunch of assets to satisfy that empty feeling that perceived missed opportunity brings. A lot of bad decisions in life are made that way.

Stay the course, BPA in this loaded draft  and either Hayward (#1) or Milsap(#2) in FA for free and still have all those assets to either roll with, trade or some combination theeof.

What's the point of accruing assets if you're gonna do nothing with them.  Half our assets are either overseas or on the bench. Either freakin use them or get rid of them.  So sick of watching deadline after deadline pass and we get nothing.  Horford was the best we got! Aging Horford!  Either build now to win and use those assets to get cousins, which he ****ed up or take those assets and start developing them in the NBA.  The team assembled is a second round exit.  Why not bring those assets overand see what they can do. Move Mickey young and rozier and bring in Nader and zizic.  I don't care ****in do something already!  I'm still p---ed about not getting cousins.  That kid woulda been loved in Boston and this might have been the place to change him...no we get to look at olynyk sorry ass again.  I'll be the first to sign a petition that ainge and Brad go if they **** up this draft, the summer, and this tradeline another year!

Not doing anything with them yet =/= Never doing anything with them

Learn some patience.

So learn patience until....another group of assets come along then another then another ?  Um no, ainges job is to build a team not assets.  Every player on our team is tradeable. That means we've not upgraded to solidify a unit capable of staying together and competing for years. We've had 3 years of moveable parts which danny didn't move and that's all we're gonna have for years to come at this rate.  You wanna sit back and enjoy that?  Have fun.  I'd like to see another title

No? When did I suggest that? I may not have to eat lunch at this rate, with all the words people have been putting in my mouth today.

Ainge's job is to build a team capable of winning championships, not to make every move that becomes available in an attempt to placate impatient fans.  The 2017 Nets pick, currently the best asset we have and the most valuable draft pick in the NBA, was nearly worthless 3 years ago.  Was Danny stupid to sit on that asset instead of using it in a deal to build around Rondo?  Sometimes the best moves are the ones you don't make, and sometimes you just have to wait and see.  The worst case scenario is not Danny holding onto assets and trying to build through the draft, like Philly - it's trading them away for a player that turns out not to be worth it, like the Nets.

We could use all of our assets to build a team that can contend for a finals appearance and never win a championship, as some people have been clamoring for. Or we can wait and see what Danny's gonna do over the next year and a half before he needs to make a decision regarding Thomas.  I'll gladly sit back and enjoy where we are rather than getting an ulcer every February and June just because Danny didn't make a trade or pick I wanted (speaking of which, how does everyone that was complaining about Danny taking Brown over Dunn and calling for him to be fired over it feel about that now?)

For the record I wanted Dunn as bait for butler.  I'm warming to brown.  As far as the rest.  If your suggesting Danny has some sort of clairvoyance with these moves your wrong.  Two years ago he ate a handful of picks trying to position himself to get Winslow. All those picks have moved us closer how?  The accruing picks isn't so much the problem it's that ainge doesn't seem to have a clue what to do with them when he gets them.  It's like he plays this chess game in his mind and quite frankly, gm's are wise to his tactics and are probably just as happy to watch ainge do his balancing act then to help him out.  With his stubbornness, can't blame them.

This whole Patience thing is like when you find a nice house and it's adorable and you realize it's all you've ever  wanted them you say, eh I'm gonna wait to get something better...****

[Moranis]

Regarding team building strategies, the question is not how most title winners were built. All team building strategies have a low likelihood of leading to a title.

The question is how most contenders (55+ wins, making the conference finals, however you want to define it) are built.

To me, it seems like the name of the game on that score is getting elite talent. As much of it as possible. The draft, trades, free agency are just means to that end. Compile elite talent and hold onto it for as long as possible. That's how you increase your chances of winning a title.

Yes you need elite talent, but the vast majority of elite talent is actually acquired in the draft.  After that trades have been the next most likely way to acquire talent (and most of those trades are made utilizing very high draft picks).  In fact, until this year basically just Shaq and Lebron were the top level players going to a team that won a title via free agency (Durant obviously might join that list).  Even if you expand those requirements to the final 4 teams every year (i.e. CF or Finals), you don't change any of those lists very much.