Isaiah Thomas Advanced Statistics Question ORTG/DRTG

[Daddy Pinto]

Hi everyone,

Wanted to introduce myself. I'm a die hard Celtics fan living in South Florida. I rarely miss a game and I've always been a reader of Celticsblog but seldomly comment on any articles/posts.

Now, to get to my question.

IT4 has been having an unbelievable year as we have all been witnessing. He has made me a true believer but as we all know his Achilles heel is his defense. It's atrociously bad.....but does his offense make up for it?

Per 100 the Celtics have an ORTG of 123 (3rd among PG's) when IT is on the floor. Their DRTG with him on the floor is a putrid 114. Although they are giving up 114 point when he is on the floor they are also outscoring opponents by 9 points.


Now take Player B:

Per 100 his Team has an ORTG of 110 when he is on the floor. Their DRTG when Player B is on the floor is a much better 107. Although Player B is allowing 7 less points per 100 he is also only outscoring opponents by 3 points when he is on the floor.

Player B is John Wall.


To recap: While IT is giving up 114 when on the floor we outscore opponents by 9 (123). John Wall's defense is much better but his margin between ORTG and DRTG is much, much smaller then IT's 9>3.

Only 2 PG's rank higher than IT when using this metric, CP3 and Lowry.


Am I misreading these statistics? If someone who has a better understanding could explain I would greatly appreciate it.

[Smitty77]

Hi everyone,

Wanted to introduce myself. I'm a die hard Celtics fan living in South Florida. I rarely miss a game and I've always been a reader of Celticsblog but seldomly comment on any articles/posts.

Now, to get to my question.

IT4 has been having an unbelievable year as we have all been witnessing. He has made me a true believer but as we all know his Achilles heel is his defense. It's atrociously bad.....but does his offense make up for it?

Per 100 the Celtics have an ORTG of 123 (3rd among PG's) when IT is on the floor. Their DRTG with him on the floor is a putrid 114. Although they are giving up 114 point when he is on the floor they are also outscoring opponents by 9 points.


Now take Player B:

Per 100 his Team has an ORTG of 110 when he is on the floor. Their DRTG when Player B is on the floor is a much better 107. Although Player B is allowing 7 less points per 100 he is also only outscoring opponents by 3 points when he is on the floor.

Player B is John Wall.


To recap: While IT is giving up 114 when on the floor we outscore opponents by 9 (123). John Wall's defense is much better but his margin between ORTG and DRTG is much, much smaller then IT's 9>3.

Only 2 PG's rank higher than IT when using this metric, CP3 and Lowry.


Am I misreading these statistics? If someone who has a better understanding could explain I would greatly appreciate it.

First off, WELCOME!!!!  Where does Kemba Walker rank on this equation?

Thanks,

Smitty77

[LGC88]

We were a top defensive team last year with IT as a starter.
IT's boost on offense not only outscore the opponent but it gives confidence to his team mates.
That's hard to quantify those 2 facts into some numbers that will tell the story.

[Tr1boy]

IT4 is a negative 4 on defense. One of the worst defensive ratings among starting pgs .... Its concerning... Especially once he gets older

[Daddy Pinto]

Hi everyone,

Wanted to introduce myself. I'm a die hard Celtics fan living in South Florida. I rarely miss a game and I've always been a reader of Celticsblog but seldomly comment on any articles/posts.

Now, to get to my question.

IT4 has been having an unbelievable year as we have all been witnessing. He has made me a true believer but as we all know his Achilles heel is his defense. It's atrociously bad.....but does his offense make up for it?

Per 100 the Celtics have an ORTG of 123 (3rd among PG's) when IT is on the floor. Their DRTG with him on the floor is a putrid 114. Although they are giving up 114 point when he is on the floor they are also outscoring opponents by 9 points.


Now take Player B:

Per 100 his Team has an ORTG of 110 when he is on the floor. Their DRTG when Player B is on the floor is a much better 107. Although Player B is allowing 7 less points per 100 he is also only outscoring opponents by 3 points when he is on the floor.

Player B is John Wall.


To recap: While IT is giving up 114 when on the floor we outscore opponents by 9 (123). John Wall's defense is much better but his margin between ORTG and DRTG is much, much smaller then IT's 9>3.

Only 2 PG's rank higher than IT when using this metric, CP3 and Lowry.


Am I misreading these statistics? If someone who has a better understanding could explain I would greatly appreciate it.

First off, WELCOME!!!!  Where does Kemba Walker rank on this equation?

Thanks,

Smitty77

Thank you, Smitty77

Unfortunately Kemba does not appear in the top 20 and I have not yet figured out how to apply a filter to only include Point Guards. On a side note IT currently sports an NBA best 9.5 OBPM.

I used the following site: http://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2017_leaders.html

[gift]

I think you just describe Net rating. It's as good a measure as the two ratings that determine it. It's worth keeping in mind, but there are flaws to both offensive and defensive ratings as it is.

[CoachBo]

We were a top defensive team last year with IT as a starter.
IT's boost on offense not only outscore the opponent but it gives confidence to his team mates.
That's hard to quantify those 2 facts into some numbers that will tell the story.

Indeed, which is why sabremetrics are for lazy students of the game.

[otherdave]

Sorry I can't cite my source (someone reliable like Sean Grande - but not him), but I read a week or two ago that IT in the 4th qtr this year has a negative plus/minus rating.

In other words, despite his scoring a lot in the 4th, the other team is scoring more than us when he is on the court in the fourth.

If this is true, its concerning - we had better have a big lead at the end of the third.

[apc]

Part of me is really enjoying ITs heroics and crazy 4th quarters. But the other part is concern with the rest of the team being dependent on him. The ball stops moving in the 4th, its give the ball to IT and get out of the way.- I cant say I like it too much.

[otherdave]

Part of me is really enjoying ITs heroics and crazy 4th quarters. But the other part is concern with the rest of the team being dependent on him. The ball stops moving in the 4th, its give the ball to IT and get out of the way.- I cant say I like it too much.

Too much deferring to IT in the fourth, I don't like it either.

http://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/celtics-isaiah-thomas-is-a-fourth-quarter-killer-but-which-team-is-he-killing/

BTW here is a source for my previous post about IT's negative plus/minus rating in the 4Q.

[The Oracle]

Hi everyone,

Wanted to introduce myself. I'm a die hard Celtics fan living in South Florida. I rarely miss a game and I've always been a reader of Celticsblog but seldomly comment on any articles/posts.

Now, to get to my question.

IT4 has been having an unbelievable year as we have all been witnessing. He has made me a true believer but as we all know his Achilles heel is his defense. It's atrociously bad.....but does his offense make up for it?

Per 100 the Celtics have an ORTG of 123 (3rd among PG's) when IT is on the floor. Their DRTG with him on the floor is a putrid 114. Although they are giving up 114 point when he is on the floor they are also outscoring opponents by 9 points.


Now take Player B:

Per 100 his Team has an ORTG of 110 when he is on the floor. Their DRTG when Player B is on the floor is a much better 107. Although Player B is allowing 7 less points per 100 he is also only outscoring opponents by 3 points when he is on the floor.

Player B is John Wall.


To recap: While IT is giving up 114 when on the floor we outscore opponents by 9 (123). John Wall's defense is much better but his margin between ORTG and DRTG is much, much smaller then IT's 9>3.

Only 2 PG's rank higher than IT when using this metric, CP3 and Lowry.


Am I misreading these statistics? If someone who has a better understanding could explain I would greatly appreciate it.

The offensive and defensive rating found on basketball reference are not per 100 numbers.  They are an individual player rating that they have concocted and are nonsensical.  I.T.'s true Off. Rat. is 113.3 and Def. Rat. of 110.4, these can be found on NBA.com.