No. The contract has nothing to do with it.
This is very simple. The problem is we are playing 'small' way too much. Or, more specifically, we aren't playing our three best big men enough. Al, Amir and Kelly are far and away our best bigs and with very few exceptions, we are a much better team so long as we have 2 of those 3 guys on the court.
Here are the six 5-man units that have played at least 10 total minutes over the last 5 games, sorted by net rating:
IT+MS+JC+AH+KO 36.5 min, 113.3 DRtg, +21.7 NetRtg*
IT+AB+JC+AH+AJ 12.9 min, 95.7 DRtg, +16.8 NetRtg*
IT+MS+JC+AH+AJ 44.5 min, 110.8 DRtg, +7.4 NetRtg*
IT+TR+MS+JC+AH 10.4 min, 130.4 DRtg, -17.4 NetRtg
IT+MS+JC+AH+JM 11.0 min, 160.9 DRtg, -24.5 NetRtg
IT+MS+JC+JJ+AH 13.2 min, 116.0 DRtg, -27.5 NetRtg
The three lineups with a "*" all have two of Al, Amir or Kelly.
Notice that not only are those three lineups all with a positive net rating, but they also have better defensive ratings.
The other three lineups all have what I would consider small front-courts. And certainly a lineup with Jordan Mickey up front is going to be very short on both size and experience.
This isn't magic. Any two-man combination of Al, Amir & Kelly is simply massively better as a front-court than any other two-man combination we can put out front.
This also isn't recent. Here is the data for the entire year, using 25 minutes as the cut-off:
IT+AB+JC+AH+KO 59.2 min, 108.3 DRtg, +19.4 NetRtg*
IT+AB+JC+JJ+AH 50.0 min, 97.1 DRtg, +17.0 NetRtg
IT+AB+MS+JJ+AJ 20.2 min, 97.5 DRtg, +13.0 NetRtg
MS+AB+JC+AH+KO 35.4 min, 90.3 DRtg, +11.3 NetRtg*
IT+MS+JC+AH+AJ 101.0 min, 107.0 DRtg, +10.7 NetRtg*
MS+AB+JC+AH+AJ 63.3 min, 111.6 DRtg, +8.9 NetRtg*
IT+AB+JC+AH+AJ 251.4 min, 109.8 DRtg, +5.9 NetRtg*
MS+TR+JB+JJ+KO 50.3 min, 89.5 DRtg, +5.2 NetRtg
IT+MS+JC+AH+KO 61.8 min, 119.4 DRtg, +4.4 NetRtg*
IT+AB+MS+KO+AJ 74.9 min, 103.8 DRtg, -4.5 NetRtg*
IT+MS+JC+JJ+AH 20.9 min, 116.3 DRtg, -7.0 NetRtg
IT+AB+MS+JC+AH 63.9 min, 127.1 DRtg, -10.8 NetRtg
IT_MS+JB+JJ+KO 25.4 min, 114.0 DRtg, -11.8 NetRtg
Of the seven lineups that have 2 out of the Al / Amir / Kelly trio on the floor, all but one has a positive net rating. And even that one isn't all that deep into the negative. And probably can be explained because while it has two of our true bigs, it is a lineup that has the dreaded 3-guard combo.
Now, there are a couple of lineups that don't feature two of those guys that have done pretty well. The sample size on one is pretty small, though. Both feature JJ, who is probably our next-runner-up 'big' in talent just outside our power trio. The better of the two is basically JJ plus our 4 best players.
Some important points to take away from this:
- Al's contract is not a factor. Al Horford's name is on both good and poor defensive lineups.
- Isaiah is not the problem on defense. His name is also on both good and poor defensive lineups.
- Basically, neither our net performance nor our defensive performance is ever about just one guy so all you folks out there who constantly like to finger-point at one player to blame (or to give too much credit to) need to chill and step into reality. Most all of our rotation players have played in both excellent and in poor 5-man units. It's the composition of our lineups that is most critical.
- The overwhelming trends to take away is that our 5-man units tend to be better (a) when they have mostly starters and (b) when they have at least 2 out of the Al / Amir / Kelly trio on the floor.
Poll
Topic: Poll: Does Al's 27 million have anything to do with poor D (Read 2540 times)