Drafting a PG as #1 pick

[mr. dee]

Is something that rarely works out. Steph is an exemption but then he was #7 overall and he also have multiple teammates who can shoot and handle the ball (Klay, Iggy, Draymond, Barnes/KD)

You can argue that all PGs drafted at that spot never really worked out as championship materials. Kyrie wasn't really relevant until Lebron came back and at best, he's just a 2nd option on a championship teams.

Unless you're a 6'9" PG like Lebron and Magic, carrying the franchise alone, especially as #1 pick isn't really practical. Even Bob Cousy couldn't carry the Celtics alone until Russell came.

And the current C's, stacked in the PG position have no place for another one, unless they want to have a PG version of the Sixers. PGs also are the easiest position to fill in today's league.

PGs drafted as #1 since 1980:

Allen Iverson (1996) = 0 rings in his career.
Derrick Rose (2008) = 0 rings in his career.
John Wall (2010) = 0 rings so far and is struggling to make the playoffs
Kyrie Irving (2011) = 0 rings until Lebron came.

Even other top 3 PG picks that turned into superstars never really produced championship as franchise players, until they became older and reduced to role players in their twilight of their careers.

Isiah Thomas (#2, 1981) = another exemption, but he also have a balanced and stacked team, playing alongside Dumars, Laimbeer and Rodman who were All-Stars in some point of their careers.
Gary Payton (#2, 1990) = 0 rings as a franchise player
Kenny Anderson  (#2, 1991) = 0 rings, an all-star but not a franchise player
Jason Kidd (#2, 1994) = 0 rings as a franchise player
Chauncey Billups (#3, 1997) = 1 ring and all-star, but not a franchise player and not drafted by the championship team
Mike Bibby (#2, 1998) = 0 rings, not an all-star
Steve Francis (#2, 1999) = 0 rings
Baron Davis (#3, 1999) = 0 rings
Jay Williams (#2, 2002) = 0 rings, not an all-star
Deron Williams (#3, 2005) = 0 rings


Not gonna judge players from 2013 and up since too early to judge.

THE POINT:

If there is a potential two-way superstar player other than PGs, you take them ahead of potential superstar PGs, especially at #1 pick. Unless you have a very stacked, but balanced teams like Pistons (Both 2004 and 80's), 1979 Sonics or the 2015 Warriors.

[Ilikesports17]

I disagree with this analysis. Rose won an MVP in like his second year then injuries ruined his career. Kyrie is a beast. He logged 2 40 point games in the finals and the dagger while outplaying Steph.

Iverson is a hall of famer and carried a bad team to the finals.

John wall is really good and still pretty young. I think he's clearly the right pick as Thompson and Leonard came out of nowhere.

All that's really irrelevant.

You draft BPA that's all.

[KG Living Legend]

 TP Mr Dee. Though I respectfully disagree. Irving was the correct pick at #1 first and foremost. Also he is the go to scorer for the Cavs right now.

 LeBron calls the shots, but I've seen him, many times go to Irving for the one opportunity.  Irving delivers more times than not.

 Kyrie Irving is the best ball handler in the world. Best in the NBA. One of the top five I've ever seen in my life.

 It is what it is. Sometimes clearly the best player is a point guard. And you don't hesitate. You draft him and reap the rewards.

 

[mr. dee]

TP Mr Dee. Though I respectfully disagree. Irving was the correct pick at #1 first and foremost. Also he is the go to scorer for the Cavs right now.

 LeBron calls the shots, but I've seen him, many times go to Irving for the one opportunity.  Irving delivers more times than not.

 Kyrie Irving is the best ball handler in the world. Best in the NBA. One of the top five I've ever seen in my life.

 It is what it is. Sometimes clearly the best player is a point guard. And you don't hesitate. You draft him and reap the rewards.

Swap IT with Irving and needle wouldn't move much. Most elite PGs from this era came outside the top 5 pick.

Cavs were a lottery team with Kyrie carrying the team alone. Cavs also have a bad record this season when LeBron is out. Kyrie is a Derek Fisher or Robert Horry who makes shots at the final seconds when it matters but he wouldn't have that opportunity without LeBron. Drafting one filled position is one thing, drafting one for a stacked one is another. This ain't no Bowie for Jordan.

Unless we traded one of our guards immediately, drafting a PG on a PG stacked team would only stunt their development. Just look at the Sixers' roster. Even now, people are already complaining about Jaylen Brown's playing minutes and SF are our less talented spots out there.

I disagree with this analysis. Rose won an MVP in like his second year then injuries ruined his career. Kyrie is a beast. He logged 2 40 point games in the finals and the dagger while outplaying Steph.

Iverson is a hall of famer and carried a bad team to the finals.

John wall is really good and still pretty young. I think he's clearly the right pick as Thompson and Leonard came out of nowhere.

All that's really irrelevant.

You draft BPA that's all.

We are Boston Celtics, not run-of-the-mill team. Anything less than a championship is a disappointment. We only have 2 more opportunity for a superstar talent in draft and we can't waste it on a position that is so stacked in the league. We acquired Rondo and IT for cheap, Im sure Danny can do it again. Im not sure if we can acquire another potential elite wing or bigs again.

Flutz, Ball and Smith may be the most NBA ready, but Jackson, Giles and Isaac have the highest upside in this upcoming draft. Everyone complaining about missing Giannis but one of these wings could be good as him, if not better.

You may want to sacrifice talent for a ring in sometimes.

Facts:

- Bogut, Lee and Bynum have more rings than CP3 and Dwill
- People here already preferred Cousins over John Wall
- Klay and Kawhi got rings before Kyrie does
- Kevin Love have more rings than Derrick Rose and Westbrook


I agree with acquiring talent, but only with a right fit.

Here's my counter-argument:

- Iverson is a great talent, but never really elevate his teammate's game.
- Derrick Rose is kinda overrated that you can argue Lebron should have won that award in 2011


We don't want to be another version of the Hawks, but we don't want to be another version of that AI Sixers either.

[trickybilly]

Lucky then we are going to draft Fultz, who is shooting 47% (22 of 47 so far), and who therefore must be a shooting guard. 

[Ilikesports17]

You are seriously underestimating Kyrie Irving.

I agree that point guards struggle to have the same impact as forwards and bigs. However that just means it is unfortunate if the best prospects are point guards.

I don't follow college ball that closely but everywhere I've looked has Fultz as the #1 guy. if he's the #1 guy you take him or trade the pick. You don't pick a forward who is an inferior prospect because of some positional upside.

Also, the whole "we are the Celtics" thing is ridiculous. We are just like every other NBA team.

As for your facts. They are all pretty useless.

CP3 doesn't have a ring. Neither does Melo. Scalabrine has one too.
Klay got a ring on Steph's back
Sure people prefer Cousins I didn't even realize they were the same draft. Guess who's had more success? Wall.
Love had way less to do with that ring than Kyrie did-->argument invalid.

Counter arguments:
Rose still won an MVP, led his team to the 1 and made an ECF appearance in year 3 at 22 years of age(youngest ever MVP)
Agree on Iverson but he still led that team to a finals and never really had much talent around him. He's no Lebron James but he's a heck of a player.

[Ilikesports17]

Bird
Johnson
Thomas
Olajuwon
Jordan
Duncan
Bryant
James

Throw shaq in for good measure.

That's the comprehensive list of superstars to lead their teams to multiple championships in the last 36 years.

2 point guard 2 shooting guards 2 small forwards 1 power forward 2 centers

The problem is not that there haven't been many point guards to lead their team to multiple titles. The problem is that there haven't been many players to lead their teams to multiple titles.

[mr. dee]

Magic is a 6'9" PG and Isiah have a pretty stacked team along with him. Isiah is only averaging like 18 PPG during their championship years. He doesn't carry the load most of the time like other superstars do.

Superstar PGs are complimentary stars at best. There is no question that KD is better than Westbrook. And you can argue that Jimmy Butler is just as good as MVP Rose. 2011 Bulls is pretty stacked too.

[mr. dee]

You are seriously underestimating Kyrie Irving.

I agree that point guards struggle to have the same impact as forwards and bigs. However that just means it is unfortunate if the best prospects are point guards.

I don't follow college ball that closely but everywhere I've looked has Fultz as the #1 guy. if he's the #1 guy you take him or trade the pick. You don't pick a forward who is an inferior prospect because of some positional upside.

Also, the whole "we are the Celtics" thing is ridiculous. We are just like every other NBA team.

As for your facts. They are all pretty useless.

CP3 doesn't have a ring. Neither does Melo. Scalabrine has one too.
Klay got a ring on Steph's back
Sure people prefer Cousins I didn't even realize they were the same draft. Guess who's had more success? Wall.
Love had way less to do with that ring than Kyrie did-->argument invalid.

Counter arguments:
Rose still won an MVP, led his team to the 1 and made an ECF appearance in year 3 at 22 years of age(youngest ever MVP)
Agree on Iverson but he still led that team to a finals and never really had much talent around him. He's no Lebron James but he's a heck of a player.

- Is Melo as athletic as Lebron? I said highest upside and Melo doesn't fit in the criteria
- Is Scal also considered a top 5 pick?
- Klay carried Steph as much as he was almost non-existent in their finals run in 2015
- Im not sure how wall is much successful than Cousins. Playoff appearance? Sure, he have a better team overall but it doesn't really matter much. If Cousins have Beal, instead of McLemore, who knows? PG is also better than Wall because Pacers makes the playoffs everytime PG is healthy.
- Kyrie did better Love? Sure, but Love is the final catapult that convinced LeBron to return. And this is where the "Talent for Rings" comes in.

Rose on his MVP season:
25 PPG, 4 RPG and 8 APG

Isaiah this season:
26 PPG, 2.5 RPG, 6 APG

And IT is more efficient.

Star PGs are dime a dozens and most of them weren't picked at the top 3. If we are to draft a PG at top 3, its because he is versatile and can play 2 position at the least. There is no Magic in this upcoming draft and the closest thing is Josh Jackson.

I also remember some people here wanting Danny to draft Kris Dunn over Jaylen and trade Smart or Rozier for sack of snickers.

[playdream]

You are seriously underestimating Kyrie Irving.

I agree that point guards struggle to have the same impact as forwards and bigs. However that just means it is unfortunate if the best prospects are point guards.

I don't follow college ball that closely but everywhere I've looked has Fultz as the #1 guy. if he's the #1 guy you take him or trade the pick. You don't pick a forward who is an inferior prospect because of some positional upside.

Also, the whole "we are the Celtics" thing is ridiculous. We are just like every other NBA team.

As for your facts. They are all pretty useless.

CP3 doesn't have a ring. Neither does Melo. Scalabrine has one too.
Klay got a ring on Steph's back
Sure people prefer Cousins I didn't even realize they were the same draft. Guess who's had more success? Wall.
Love had way less to do with that ring than Kyrie did-->argument invalid.

Counter arguments:
Rose still won an MVP, led his team to the 1 and made an ECF appearance in year 3 at 22 years of age(youngest ever MVP)
Agree on Iverson but he still led that team to a finals and never really had much talent around him. He's no Lebron James but he's a heck of a player.

- Is Melo as athletic as Lebron? I said highest upside and Melo doesn't fit in the criteria
- Is Scal also considered a top 5 pick?
- Klay carried Steph as much as he was almost non-existent in their finals run in 2015
- Im not sure how wall is much successful than Cousins. Playoff appearance? Sure, he have a better team overall but it doesn't really matter much. If Cousins have Beal, instead of McLemore, who knows? PG is also better than Wall because Pacers makes the playoffs everytime PG is healthy.
- Kyrie did better Love? Sure, but Love is the final catapult that convinced LeBron to return. And this is where the "Talent for Rings" comes in.

Rose on his MVP season:
25 PPG, 4 RPG and 8 APG

Isaiah this season:
26 PPG, 2.5 RPG, 6 APG

And IT is more efficient.

Star PGs are dime a dozens and most of them weren't picked at the top 3. If we are to draft a PG at top 3, its because he is versatile and can play 2 position at the least. There is no Magic in this upcoming draft and the closest thing is Josh Jackson.

I also remember some people here wanting Danny to draft Kris Dunn over Jaylen and trade Smart or Rozier for sack of snickers.

kind of agree, just hope Fultz can play SG

[Csfan1984]

This is the best PG class I've ever seen. Looks like five good PGs going in the top 20. Flutz may look the best right now but any of them can become the best PG of the class, Frank, Ball, Fox, or Smith who knows.

[Ilikesports17]

Mr. Dee, you are looking at some interesting data but drawing the wrong conclusion.

Positional upside is built in to prospect evaluation.

Over the last 36 years you note there have been just 4 #1 pick point gaurds. Thats 1/9 rather than the expected 1/5.

The positional upside you argue for is already built into prospect evaluation.

Since we are only talking about guys who led their teams to titles, the only players in the last 36 years to fit your criteria are the following.

Magic Johnson
Hakeem Olajuwon
Larry Bird
Michael Jordan
Shaq
Tim Duncan
Lebron James
Isaiah Thomas
Kobe Bryant

we will throw thomas out because he did not carry his team, he was only the best player.

Magic--> no-brainer #1 pick
Olajuwon --> #1
Larry Bird --> acquired through auerbach trickeration probably would have gone 1/2 next to Magic --> #1
Shaq --> No-brainer #1
Timmy --> no-brainer #1
Lebron --> obvious #1
Isaiah Thomas #2, point gaurd*
Kobe Bryant--> went 13th no one saw him coming.

*didnt carry team to rings. Was only best player.

So the only time ever, a player like this has not been seen as the obvious #1, was Michael Jordan. He was picked after 2 centers.

This shows that positional upside is built into prospect evaluations.

Lets look at the recent point gaurds:
In 2015 Deangelo Russell went second behind no-brainer #1 center Karl Towns. It was fairly controversial that he was taken ahead of Jahlil Okafor. The move now looks brilliant.

In 2011 Kyrie went #1 overall. The other "elite" prospects? Derrick Williams and Enes Kanter. Advantage Kyrie.

2010 John Wall goes #1, the next two: Evan Turner and Derrick Favors. Advantage John Wall

2008 Derrick Rose goes #1 in an actually fairly controversial decision. They guy he battled it out with: Michael Beasley: advantage Rose

Going deeper in 2005 Deron Williams was selected 3rd behind a Center (Bogut) and a Forward (Marvin Williams). Harder to judge, Williams the obvious bad pick here. Bogut won more and he was a center so he was given a positional boost in the draft. Likely part of the reason he went ahead of Deron.

If a point gaurd is the #1 guy in this draft it is likely that he is the clear cut better prospect. If there is a generational talent in this draft he will distance himself from point gaurds like Fultz and Ball.

[footey]

We need another guy who can create his own shot like IT. Fultz fits the bill.

[Ilikesports17]

- Is Melo as athletic as Lebron? I said highest upside and Melo doesn't fit in the criteria

for discussions on upside see my above post

- Is Scal also considered a top 5 pick?

no. The point is that David Lee winning a ring is entirely irrelevant he was like the worst rotation guy on that team.

- Klay carried Steph as much as he was almost non-existent in their finals run in 2015

Steph was regular season MVP and averaged 28/6/5 in the playoffs.
Klay was obviously not regular season MVP and averaged 19/3/4 in the playoffs.

Steph also had better efficiency.

- Im not sure how wall is much successful than Cousins. Playoff appearance? Sure, he have a better team overall but it doesn't really matter much. If Cousins have Beal, instead of McLemore, who knows? PG is also better than Wall because Pacers makes the playoffs everytime PG is healthy.

Wall has had OK teams, Cousins has had worse. Paul George was not in consideration for the #1 pick and neither really was Cousins. If he had been drafted to Washington maybe Washington never makes the playoffs. Wall isnt a generational guy but hes accomplished as much as anyone in the running for that #1 pick.

- Kyrie did better Love? Sure, but Love is the final catapult that convinced LeBron to return. And this is where the "Talent for Rings" comes in.

Its possible Love convinced Lebron to come to Cleveland, but Kyrie was already there and there is no evidence that Lebron was more excited about playing with Love than Kyrie. The initial returns in Cleveland suggest that he was just as excited about Kyrie, who adjusted much more quickly than Love.

In the finals Love: 7 points 6 rebounds 23 mpg 6 games 3-3 record.
Irving: 27 points 4 assists 4 rebounds 39 mpg 7 games 4-3 record, outplayed unanimous MVP, dagger 3 point shot to win series.

Rose on his MVP season:
25 PPG, 4 RPG and 8 APG

Isaiah this season:
26 PPG, 2.5 RPG, 6 APG

And IT is more efficient.

yes, rose was also 22, the youngest MVP ever and leading his team to the #1 seed. Also, that Bulls team was good but not stacked. Rose, Noah, Deng and Boozer are all very good players, but Noah only played 48 games, Boozer 59. Pretty impressive for that team to outpace the Heat in the regular season. Not quite as impressive as 22 year old Lebron, but if 22 years old MVP and #1 seed doesnt cut it then you have some high ass standards.

Star PGs are dime a dozens and most of them weren't picked at the top 3. If we are to draft a PG at top 3, its because he is versatile and can play 2 position at the least. There is no Magic in this upcoming draft and the closest thing is Josh Jackson.

this is pretty valid. In my above post I more or less agree with this, but draw a different conclusion. Its not hard to get a star point gaurd, but this is already built into these evaluations and when a pg is a top pick its generally because he is a much better prospect than the guys he is in the conversation with.

If we get to the draft and the conversation is still Fultz/Ball > Jackso/Tatum/Giles than it is more likely that Fultz and Ball are the Rose to their Beasley than one of those guys is secretly a franchise player.

I also remember some people here wanting Danny to draft Kris Dunn over Jaylen and trade Smart or Rozier for sack of snickers.

kinda irrelevant.

[MBunge]

For all the stats and analytics, the draft is still a shot in the dark.  Almost every year, there are lottery pick who turn out to be busts and 2nd rounders who turn out to be legit players.  Just take the guy you think is the best player.  Don't EVER take a guy based on position or need.  And if the best player at that draft spot plays a position where you are already stacked, trade the pick for additional value.

Mike