Even if it's a low chance, I'd rather leave the door open to sign Griffin, Millsap, or Ibaka next summer than add Tyson Chandler.
I think Chandler only marginally improves the team, and still doesn't get them past the second round.
Plus, given the length of Chandler's contract, he could also affect the Celts' decisionmaking on keeping Thomas and/or Bradley beyond summer of 2018.
Griffin sure (but he isn't coming to Boston), but I don't think Millsap or Ibaka do much for Boston's title chances and frankly I think Chandler is a better fit than Ibaka anyway. Millsap is up there in age and we already know what a Millsap/Horford front court looks like (I'm not suggesting Chandler isn't old).
And the thing is, Chandler's 13 million dollar contract isn't all that much more than Olynyk's cap hold, so if Olynyk is merely let go, Boston should be able to finagle enough cap room to sign a max contract free agent anyway if it was actually necessary. I'd much rather have Chandler and a max contract than Olynyk and a max contract, when you start looking at the available max level free agents (i.e. there aren't any centers).
That's a fair point re: Chandler vs Olynyk.
I lean toward Olynyk being a better 3-4 year bet than Chandler, but I could be persuaded otherwise. I have a feeling Chandler will remain solid on defense + the boards but become a greater offensive liability over time.
As far as Millsap / Ibaka, I agree that adding either of them probably doesn't make the team a contender unless one of the BRK picks really hits (meaning Kristaps / Towns level immediate impact).
At the same time, completing the starting lineup with one of those guys probably makes the Celts a clear cut #2 in the East. Furthermore, this summer may be the last chance for the Celts to use their cap space to make an upgrade, seeing as IT, Bradley, and Smart will all hit free agency at the same time in 2018. Even if they only keep one of those guys, there probably won't be much cap space left at that point.
I think the Celts will probably have to spend money this summer because of that, whether or not there is a max guy available to take the team to contention. The only way they would not spend that $$ is if Ainge felt that doing so would somehow prevent them from making a trade for a star.