Rozier will be better than Smart (and might be already)

[ballin]

Ok, first off, I'm going to admit that the stats don't tell the whole story here. Smart is the typical "no-stats all star" type, a la Shane Battier, and it would be foolish to judge him on stats alone.

That being said, we'll just start off with the stats to get them out of the way. Smart, in his 3rd year, is averaging 30% from the field (and 29% from three). Rozier, in his second year, is averaging 44% from the field (and 41% from three). In short, the stats say Smart is an historically bad shooter, whereas Rozier is demonstrating a ton of skill in that area.

Putting it in context, the eye tests backs up the stats. Rozier just shoots the ball way, way better. Furthermore, Rozier has a massive speed advantage over smart and is more explosive, getting him more easy looks at the basket. While Rozier isn't averaging more FT attempts yet, I would expect that to change. Smart lacks explosiveness and has no off-the-dribble moves to get to the rim. On offense, he's simply a spot-up shooter and a poor one at that.

Disparingly, and most importantly, that's been the story for three years. Unlike Avery Bradley, who was given the greenlight to shoot from range and then actually managed to develop that skill year over year, Smart has actually gotten worse. Three years in, there's strong reason to believe that Smart will always be offensively inept, which is a major, major disadvantage in this league. Rozier wins this round hands down, and I expect him to get better. Which leads us to:

Defense

Is Smart's defense enough to make him more valuable than Rozier? Both players average a similar number of blocks and steals per 36, and Rozier actually grabs more rebounds (due to his superior athleticism and leaping ability). Moreover, Rozier fouls less, as his footspeed allows him to stay in front of his man without needing to reach in and swipe at passing players. In my opinion, Smart looks like he's gained weight, and that has hurt him defensively. In terms of matching up against guards, I'm not even sure that Smart is currently a better defender than Rozier. And it's just Rozier's second year.

Going forward, I wouldn't be surprised for Rozier to develop into a better player than smart. For a guy that makes a lot of winning plays through sheer effort, Smart also has managed to demonstrate stretches of low basketball IQ as well as a lack of effort in developing his shot and getting in shape. Rozier is on the complete opposite trajectory, having improved massively from year one to year two. Rozier might ultimately be the better player.

[BitterJim]

In terms of matching up against guards, I'm not even sure that Smart is currently a better defender than Rozier.

Smart is unquestionably a better defender than Rozier.  It isn't even close.

[Ilikesports17]

Brad believes Smart is better, so do I.

Terry certainly has the potential to be a better player. Terry is a more explosive athlete. This is something Marcus simply lacks and gives Terry much more potential as a scorer. Terry is also a better shooter. The threat of both exploding by you to the rim and hitting threes and long twos makes Terry so much more dangerous than Marcus offensively. Smart must be very deliberate on offense creating angles and space with subtle movements. I think Smart actually has a nice feel for how to place defenders where he wants, but he has to work much harder than Rozier.

Terrys length and athleticism also allow him to become a + defender.

His physical profile gives him a very high ceiling.

That said, right now, Marcus is the leader of our team. He is super versatile(something Rozier doesnt quite bring) and really just understands the game much better than Rozier. As such, hes a better player today.

The other thing, which you did mention, was the x-factor plays. I mean the charges Smart takes, the looseball he flies to, his weird tendency to hit big shot, all those factors are really immeasurable.

I like what Ive seen from Terry.

[Big333223]

Rozier is a better shooter than Smart, yes. But Smart is, as of today, a smarter, more poised player. He's also shown himself to have leadership skills beyond his years, something I value a lot. And then there's the defensive versatility that allowed Stevens to start him at SF, and put him on Paul Millsap in a playoff game last year. It's hard to quantify something like that.

It's possible Rozier surpasses Smart but he hasn't yet.

[hwangjini_1]

good points above. just to add a small point, there is also an interesting difference.

thus far, rozier has needed the ball in his hand to really impact the game. smart is almost the anti-rozier on this point. while smart is a great passer, much of his impact on the game does not require him to have the ball.

small point.

[PhoSita]

Rozier continues to strike me as a decent-not-great backup combo guard.  He's a solid guy to have in the rotation, but won't blow you away with any particular facet of his game. 

Smart's skillset is characterized by extremes in a way that Rozier's is not.  Smart is a very effective, intense, and versatile defender who brings an intangible element of bravado, guile, and ruthless competitiveness on the floor with him.  He's also a trainwreck as a scorer, who manages to avoid Rondoishness on that end of the floor by firing away when he gets an open opportunity rather than deferring and overdribbling.


Basically, I think Rozier can have a long career as a backup in this league.  Smart has much higher upside (along the lines of TA in Memphis), but also could easily be out of the league if an injury takes his lateral movement down a notch or prevents him from playing with 100% hustle all the time.

[footey]

Rozier is different type of player than Smart.  To say one is better than the other is hard to debate, each has a unique skill set.

Rozier is clearly a better shooter right now.

Smart is a better defender.

I like them both. 

It's an interesting question when a trade goes down, which of the two will Danny have a harder time letting go of.

[LarBrd33]

I'd like to see if Terry could keep up his production with more minutes.

Per-36.

Roz:  12.4 points, 6.7 rebounds, 3 assists, 1.3 steals with 44%/42%/71% shooting.
Smart:  11.4 points, 5.1 rebounds, 4.9 assists, 1.5 steals 36%/29%/55%

Roz seems to be better offensively.  Smart's getting more assists, but that has a lot to do with role.   Smart is seen as a better defender, but they have the same defensive rating.

[positivitize]

Hi. I think your approach to comparing these two players is skewed.

Ok, first off, I'm going to admit that the stats don't tell the whole story here. Smart is the typical "no-stats all star" type, a la Shane Battier, and it would be foolish to judge him on stats alone.

That being said, we'll just start off with the stats

Hah.

. Smart lacks explosiveness and has no off-the-dribble moves to get to the rim. On offense, he's simply a spot-up shooter and a poor one at that.

Smart might not be as quick as Rozier, but he gets up in a hurry and has decent leaping ability. He also has greatly improved his handle and when you combine that with both his size and his strength, he doesn't have difficulty getting to the rim. His problem is finishing at the rim once he gets there. Also, you are COMPLETELY passing over Smart's contribution initiating the offense, making the right calls, his clutch shooting, his passing ability, and his ability within the pick and roll when you peg him as a poor spot-up shooter.

Three years in, there's strong reason to believe that Smart will always be offensively inept

2 Years and 17 Games. And yeah, his shooting %s have stayed the same or gotten worse. He DOES need to improve his shooting, but calling Smart "offensively inept" is bogus. Marcus Smart is roughly the same age as Kris Dunn. If Dunn can improve his shooting, Smart can too. Just because he's been in the league a year or two doesn't mean he's hit his ceiling. Look at Crowder (shooting, driving), AB (passing, dribbling, shooting) , or Horford (3 point shot) for examples of players who have been in the league a while yet still grow year after year. I would like to hear a "strong reason to believe" that Smart will never progress.

Is Smart's defense enough to make him more valuable than Rozier?

Currently, yes. Smart defends at an all-star level. Rozier does nothing at an all-star level. Both are 22.

In terms of matching up against guards, I'm not even sure that Smart is currently a better defender than Rozier. And it's just Rozier's second year.

You lose all credibility here. Smart is undeniably a better defender than Rozier, even though Rozier is a strong individual defender with better quickness. Defense is not played 1v1. It's played 5v5 and Rozier often has breakdowns in the team scheme that lead to easy buckets.

Smart also has managed to demonstrate stretches of low basketball IQ as well as a lack of effort in developing his shot and getting in shape.

I'm not sold on the low bbiq claim. His court vision and propensity to be in the right place at the right time argue strongly against that. He does get heated and occasionaly let that cloud his judgement. I can live with that. He's 22. He's not a veteran even if he plays like one most of the time. He'll learn.

I'm not sure why you think he's overweight. It looks to me as if he's bulked up a bit to help play the 3 (which he's been called on to do a lot of this season). Smart is not out of shape.

Rozier might ultimately be the better player.

Maybe in a few years, but right now Smart is better at everything except shooting.

Rozier has made major strides in his first year. That's something to be super excited about. Personally, I like Smart and Rozier playing together in the same backcourt, with Smart handling the ball (as Rozier tends to overdribble and kill the ball movement)

Smart was a 6th pick, Rozier was a 16th (and one that many bemoaned at the time). Smart's expectations and skill levels were higher than Rozier's at the time they entered the league. They are still higher even though Rozier has maybe become a better shooter(?) (sample size of 17 games)

Let's hope both improve, but Smart is clearly both the better player and the better prospect currently.

[Londongreen]

I thought so in the preseason but not anymore. I believe in Smart now. Seeing his passes to mickey and horford and zeller etc changed me mind. His defence, heart, passing and improving shot has me now. Smart has to stay.

[GreenWarrior]

K...

[jpotter33]

Hi. I think your approach to comparing these two players is skewed.

Ok, first off, I'm going to admit that the stats don't tell the whole story here. Smart is the typical "no-stats all star" type, a la Shane Battier, and it would be foolish to judge him on stats alone.

That being said, we'll just start off with the stats

Hah.

. Smart lacks explosiveness and has no off-the-dribble moves to get to the rim. On offense, he's simply a spot-up shooter and a poor one at that.

Smart might not be as quick as Rozier, but he gets up in a hurry and has decent leaping ability. He also has greatly improved his handle and when you combine that with both his size and his strength, he doesn't have difficulty getting to the rim. His problem is finishing at the rim once he gets there. Also, you are COMPLETELY passing over Smart's contribution initiating the offense, making the right calls, his clutch shooting, his passing ability, and his ability within the pick and roll when you peg him as a poor spot-up shooter.

Three years in, there's strong reason to believe that Smart will always be offensively inept

2 Years and 17 Games. And yeah, his shooting %s have stayed the same or gotten worse. He DOES need to improve his shooting, but calling Smart "offensively inept" is bogus. Marcus Smart is roughly the same age as Kris Dunn. If Dunn can improve his shooting, Smart can too. Just because he's been in the league a year or two doesn't mean he's hit his ceiling. Look at Crowder (shooting, driving), AB (passing, dribbling, shooting) , or Horford (3 point shot) for examples of players who have been in the league a while yet still grow year after year. I would like to hear a "strong reason to believe" that Smart will never progress.

Is Smart's defense enough to make him more valuable than Rozier?

Currently, yes. Smart defends at an all-star level. Rozier does nothing at an all-star level. Both are 22.

In terms of matching up against guards, I'm not even sure that Smart is currently a better defender than Rozier. And it's just Rozier's second year.

You lose all credibility here. Smart is undeniably a better defender than Rozier, even though Rozier is a strong individual defender with better quickness. Defense is not played 1v1. It's played 5v5 and Rozier often has breakdowns in the team scheme that lead to easy buckets.

Smart also has managed to demonstrate stretches of low basketball IQ as well as a lack of effort in developing his shot and getting in shape.

I'm not sold on the low bbiq claim. His court vision and propensity to be in the right place at the right time argue strongly against that. He does get heated and occasionaly let that cloud his judgement. I can live with that. He's 22. He's not a veteran even if he plays like one most of the time. He'll learn.

I'm not sure why you think he's overweight. It looks to me as if he's bulked up a bit to help play the 3 (which he's been called on to do a lot of this season). Smart is not out of shape.

Rozier might ultimately be the better player.

Maybe in a few years, but right now Smart is better at everything except shooting.

Rozier has made major strides in his first year. That's something to be super excited about. Personally, I like Smart and Rozier playing together in the same backcourt, with Smart handling the ball (as Rozier tends to overdribble and kill the ball movement)

Smart was a 6th pick, Rozier was a 16th (and one that many bemoaned at the time). Smart's expectations and skill levels were higher than Rozier's at the time they entered the league. They are still higher even though Rozier has maybe become a better shooter(?) (sample size of 17 games)

Let's hope both improve, but Smart is clearly both the better player and the better prospect currently.

TP. Very sound rebuttal.

[dreamgreen]

Hard to compare the two. But I do think TRoz is just begun to show what he can do. By the end of this year he will be a vastly better player than he is now.

[coffee425]

Smart 32mpg
Rozier 19mpg


If Terry was better, Brad would just play him more. What do i know, i just trust an NBA head coach.


Terry hasn't done enough defensively for Brad to trust him as the 2nd guard off the bench. When Turner was here, Marcus was still getting 28mpg as the 2nd guard off the bench.

[jpotter33]

Rozier continues to strike me as a decent-not-great backup combo guard.  He's a solid guy to have in the rotation, but won't blow you away with any particular facet of his game. 

Smart's skillset is characterized by extremes in a way that Rozier's is not.  Smart is a very effective, intense, and versatile defender who brings an intangible element of bravado, guile, and ruthless competitiveness on the floor with him.  He's also a trainwreck as a scorer, who manages to avoid Rondoishness on that end of the floor by firing away when he gets an open opportunity rather than deferring and overdribbling.


Basically, I think Rozier can have a long career as a backup in this league.  Smart has much higher upside (along the lines of TA in Memphis), but also could easily be out of the league if an injury takes his lateral movement down a notch or prevents him from playing with 100% hustle all the time.

Eh, I disagree with the injury comment with Smart. Smart's elite defense is predicated on elite positioning ability, physicality, and an incredibly advanced BBIQ, especially defensively.

His lateral movement is already a step below someone like AB, but he stays in front of defenders by having a very well-rounded ability to anticipate and read the offensive player's movements.

I agree with the Terry analysis. I see him as a Mo Williams/DJ Augustine off the bench backup point guard type, which is perfectly acceptable given his draft ranking.