Everyone in the universe knows he's walking when the contract is up.
Nah. That premise is based on the illogical idea that Philly would let him get to free agency and let him walk. It's always been nonsense.
He's a restricted free agent. Whichever team he's on owns his rights and can match any offer he'd receive. If Philly is content to build a team without Noel, they'll just trade him prior to the deadline... or, they'll let this drag out even longer by matching any offer he gets in free agency and trading him later next season to one of the many teams that continue to show interest in him.
This is just nonsense. They'll end up trading him almost assuredly, but unless Embiid or Okafor both go down, they're simply not going to resign him. He's going to get near-max offers. It's as simple as that, and they're simply not going to pay him that when he'll essentially be their third string center with how they use him. It'll be an Evan Turner situation like we had this summer.
I do think Noel will be before the deadline. However if he isn't I'm less sure that he'll get near-Max contract. This summer every team had cap space and a lot of teams spent theirs. There are going to be a lot less teams able to offer big contracts next summer. Which teams that will have near-max cap space are going to offer it to Noel?
The difference with Turner was that he wasn't a RFA. Clarkson who was a RFA ended up signing a much more reasonable 4yr/50M.
After a quick glance, it looks like potential teams that could reasonably go after him for decent sized offers are Boston, Brooklyn, Lakers, Suns, New Orleans, and Spurs. I think the first five teams especially will go after him hard and have the cap space to make him a big to max/near-max offer.
What also helps his case is that this free agent class is very limited on bogs. Hoopshype had him as the number 10 free agent on the market, and the only other two bigs before him are Griffin and old Milsap. If nothing happens this season, I expect us to go after Griffin hard, but I don't see him signing here. So at that point, what do we do? Sign Hayward? Honestly doesn't really help us with the big position, and I ultimately think he's redundant with Crowder on a much greater contract.
Outside of a Boogie trade, KO improvement, or some other trade for a big, Noel is really the best bet we have for upgrading our front court.