Poll: Marcus for Nerlens straight up

[LarBrd33]

Compare Chandler and Noel at the same point in their careers.

I imagine they were pretty similar.

I know Chandler was athletic, but was he as athletic as Noel in his younger days? From what I remember, I didn't think he was quite as mobile or had the foot speed that Noel does.

Chandler is quite a bit taller.  A legit 7'1.  Noel isn't a 7 footer like people keep saying.  He's listed as 6'11 and that seems a little exaggerated.

Chandler without shoes measured 6'11.5  with a 7'3 wingspan and 9'2 reach 
Noel without shoes measured at  6'10 with a  7'4 wingspan and a 9'1.5 reach

Pretty darn similar.

[PickNRoll]

I have no statistical evidence, but I watched about 15 sixers games last year and in my opinion he's not an elite defender.  He's roughly on par with Amir Johnson, just with more theatrics and more mistakes.  A guy like DeAndre Jordan warps the entire court.  You never get that sense with Noel.  He can be moved out of a play by a SF.  Not elite.

There's layers there to pull through.  Did you happen to catch games he was playing out of position?  We're talking about a 10 win team that was intentionally trying to lose games.  They didn't really have NBA players on that roster for the most part.  FWIW, he had by far the highest defensive rating on the team.  He also put up far better stats as the starting Center than he did as a PF.  We also saw him make a leap when Ish Smith returned - so maybe he'd succeed with decent players surrounding him. 

The kid could probably flourish on this team.

The games were evenly distributed, more or less.  They improved from a D-league team to simply the worst team with Ish.  The effort was surprisingly good throughout.  Credit to coach Brown.  I don't think it matters if he was playing 4 or 5, tbh.

My problem with Noel is that his game is defined by highlight reel blocks and alley-oops.  He plays with a sort of anticipation of the next highlight.  For every weak side shot block, he gives up an offensive rebound.  For every steal, he turns the ball over twice.  He grabs a nice rebound in traffic and you'd like him to make a quick outlet pass, but he palms the ball instead, celebrating his rebound.  It's like he's playing his own game. Basically the opposite of Smart.

He'd probably look significantly better on a real basketball team.

I don't see why that would be true.  e.g. the Spurs don't select players like Noel and mold them into good players.  They draft intelligent, team-oriented players.  You'll never see Noel on the Spurs, I guarantee that.

Maybe the problem with Noel is expectations.  People think he can be an elite center some day because he was a top pick.  That just isn't true.  He should focus on being the best Tyson Chandler he can be.

Tyson Chandler was the #2 pick in his draft.

And he had a nice career as a role player.  He wasn't Hakeem Olajuwon.  That's my point.  Noel's ceiling is in the Tyson Chandler range, not the Hakeem range.

Who said he had Hakeem potential?  I think it's well known Tyson Chandler is the comp. 

The question, then, becomes whether or not you think Tony Allen or Tyson Chandler makes more of an impact on a team.   Tony's a great defender, but he has only so much impact on the game.  Tyson Chandler was a DPOY and helped a team win a championship.   As others have said, if you're choosing between two defense-only players, you go with the big.

That said, I still truly hope Marcus Smart makes a leap next season and surpasses what looks like a Tony Allen ceiling right now.

I think Smart is more Joe Dumars than Tony Allen, and I don't think Noel ever reaches  that Tyson Chandler ceiling.  It's too simple to say they're both defensive players.  Smart shows the best defensive fundamentals and instincts I've seen in 35 years.  Noel is behind the curve.

That's funny.  I think there is a decent to very good chance that Noel can be become Tyson Chandler.  I think it is a perfect comp and that there is a  chance it happens.  On the other hand, I think there is virtually no chance that Smart becomes Joe Dumars, who is in the Hall of Fame for ****. 

Kind of tired of seeing fans not understand the idea of a combo guy, which I presume people think of when they think of Smart.  They see a guy that isn't a true PG, isn't a true SG and think hey, he's both; just like Joe Dumars!

The difference is, Dumars could handle multiple roles WELL.  All Smart has shown offensively is that he can't handle either well.  There is a huge difference between someone like Smart and Joe Dumars.

Dumars was 6'3, 200ish, long wingspan, smart, gritty, physical, great defender.  He shot 20% on threes in his second year.  He averaged 9 and 12 points over his first two seasons but blossomed into a reliable 20 point scorer.  He didn't have a great first step.  He didn't get to the FT line much in his first few years, but became more aggressive in the middle stages of his career.  He was never a #1 option, really more of a 3rd or 4th option.  He shared ball handling duties with IT.  He averaged 4.5 assists for his career, never a true distributor or playmaker, but decent. Later in his career he became a great post-up guard and developed a nice floater --the same things Smart is working on.  His build, his role, his play style, his career trajectory... nearly an exact match and a perfect role model for Smart.

This is another thing that annoys we regarding fan logic.  You take one guy, that struggled initially but has a similar build to another guy.  And then you say, see, this guy can become that guy.  What is missing is that there are a whole bunch of players that that struggle initially, and have a similar build than that guy, that never amount to anything.

Yet we get these analogies ALL the time.

The similarity goes beyond the guy's build.  I literally just explained it.  I watched Dumar's career start to finish. I'm not throwing out random 6'3" Hof'ers.  Smart has the potential to be that caliber of player.  He's not as good a shooter, but he's even more impactful defensively.   The difference between Smart and a 15ppg starter is just unlocking a few offensive tools and knocking down open looks.  Year 3 will be telling, but you can't trade him now... Not for Nerlens Noel.

Fair enough.  I don't necessarily see what you see, but let's let it play out.  Hopefully you're right and I'm wrong.

BUMP!  You see it yet?

[PickNRoll]

I have no statistical evidence, but I watched about 15 sixers games last year and in my opinion he's not an elite defender.  He's roughly on par with Amir Johnson, just with more theatrics and more mistakes.  A guy like DeAndre Jordan warps the entire court.  You never get that sense with Noel.  He can be moved out of a play by a SF.  Not elite.

There's layers there to pull through.  Did you happen to catch games he was playing out of position?  We're talking about a 10 win team that was intentionally trying to lose games.  They didn't really have NBA players on that roster for the most part.  FWIW, he had by far the highest defensive rating on the team.  He also put up far better stats as the starting Center than he did as a PF.  We also saw him make a leap when Ish Smith returned - so maybe he'd succeed with decent players surrounding him. 

The kid could probably flourish on this team.

The games were evenly distributed, more or less.  They improved from a D-league team to simply the worst team with Ish.  The effort was surprisingly good throughout.  Credit to coach Brown.  I don't think it matters if he was playing 4 or 5, tbh.

My problem with Noel is that his game is defined by highlight reel blocks and alley-oops.  He plays with a sort of anticipation of the next highlight.  For every weak side shot block, he gives up an offensive rebound.  For every steal, he turns the ball over twice.  He grabs a nice rebound in traffic and you'd like him to make a quick outlet pass, but he palms the ball instead, celebrating his rebound.  It's like he's playing his own game. Basically the opposite of Smart.

He'd probably look significantly better on a real basketball team.

I don't see why that would be true.  e.g. the Spurs don't select players like Noel and mold them into good players.  They draft intelligent, team-oriented players.  You'll never see Noel on the Spurs, I guarantee that.

Maybe the problem with Noel is expectations.  People think he can be an elite center some day because he was a top pick.  That just isn't true.  He should focus on being the best Tyson Chandler he can be.

Tyson Chandler was the #2 pick in his draft.

And he had a nice career as a role player.  He wasn't Hakeem Olajuwon.  That's my point.  Noel's ceiling is in the Tyson Chandler range, not the Hakeem range.

Who said he had Hakeem potential?  I think it's well known Tyson Chandler is the comp. 

The question, then, becomes whether or not you think Tony Allen or Tyson Chandler makes more of an impact on a team.   Tony's a great defender, but he has only so much impact on the game.  Tyson Chandler was a DPOY and helped a team win a championship.   As others have said, if you're choosing between two defense-only players, you go with the big.

That said, I still truly hope Marcus Smart makes a leap next season and surpasses what looks like a Tony Allen ceiling right now.

I think Smart is more Joe Dumars than Tony Allen, and I don't think Noel ever reaches  that Tyson Chandler ceiling.  It's too simple to say they're both defensive players.  Smart shows the best defensive fundamentals and instincts I've seen in 35 years.  Noel is behind the curve.

That's funny.  I think there is a decent to very good chance that Noel can be become Tyson Chandler.  I think it is a perfect comp and that there is a  chance it happens.  On the other hand, I think there is virtually no chance that Smart becomes Joe Dumars, who is in the Hall of Fame for ****. 

Kind of tired of seeing fans not understand the idea of a combo guy, which I presume people think of when they think of Smart.  They see a guy that isn't a true PG, isn't a true SG and think hey, he's both; just like Joe Dumars!

The difference is, Dumars could handle multiple roles WELL.  All Smart has shown offensively is that he can't handle either well.  There is a huge difference between someone like Smart and Joe Dumars.

Dumars was 6'3, 200ish, long wingspan, smart, gritty, physical, great defender.  He shot 20% on threes in his second year.  He averaged 9 and 12 points over his first two seasons but blossomed into a reliable 20 point scorer.  He didn't have a great first step.  He didn't get to the FT line much in his first few years, but became more aggressive in the middle stages of his career.  He was never a #1 option, really more of a 3rd or 4th option.  He shared ball handling duties with IT.  He averaged 4.5 assists for his career, never a true distributor or playmaker, but decent. Later in his career he became a great post-up guard and developed a nice floater --the same things Smart is working on.  His build, his role, his play style, his career trajectory... nearly an exact match and a perfect role model for Smart.

 Wow man, talk about Bold predictions. If smart ends up anything close to Joe D, I'll give you 100 Tp's just for the bold prediction.

 Joe also peaked out at 23.5 ppg. Smart will never do that. Joe shot .843% career at e free throw line and peaked at .900% smart can't shoot like that.

 Joe shot .382% from three fit his career and peaked at .432% doubtful smart ever comes close.

 But they are both great defenders and they both play basketball so there are some similarities.

We're coming for those TP's next year, KG. 

[moiso]

Both will be 50lbs overweight within 2 years of retiring.

Smart was amazing tonight and has really been improving.  It's a lot of fun to watch.

[PickNRoll]

Both will be 50lbs overweight within 2 years of retiring.

Smart was amazing tonight and has really been improving.  It's a lot of fun to watch.

LOL.  Smart plays a tennis as a hobby and for conditioning.  Dumars, yes.  But I see exactly what you're saying.  Smart could add 30 pounds and play middle linebacker for the Pats next week.

[Bobshot]

Can't trade Smart. He is their toughness.

[PickNRoll]

Can't trade Smart. He is their toughness.

Don't look now, but he's also becoming their stability.  Near tops in +/- seemingly every game the past 2 months.  And the team believes in him.  They know they get stops with him QB'ing the D.

[Chris22]

God, no.
I have become a believer in this three point offense.

[Ilikesports17]

you can tell who watches Celtics games and who peruses box scores by whether or not they want to trade Marcus.

[mahcussmaht]

you can tell who watches Celtics games and who peruses box scores by whether or not they want to trade Marcus.

But his box scores have been great lately.  In his last 5 games he is shooting 53 percent.  16 points + 4 steals + 4 rebounds + 4 assists.

[Ilikesports17]

you can tell who watches Celtics games and who peruses box scores by whether or not they want to trade Marcus.

But his box scores have been great lately.

true. Maybe hes converting the non-watchers as well.

[PickNRoll]

you can tell who watches Celtics games and who peruses box scores by whether or not they want to trade Marcus.

But his box scores have been great lately.  In his last 5 games he is shooting 53 percent.  16 points + 4 steals + 4 rebounds + 4 assists.

Dumars averaged 16/2/4/1 for his career and I was run out of town for suggesting Smart is that caliber of player.

[KG Living Legend]

you can tell who watches Celtics games and who peruses box scores by whether or not they want to trade Marcus.

But his box scores have been great lately.  In his last 5 games he is shooting 53 percent.  16 points + 4 steals + 4 rebounds + 4 assists.

Dumars averaged 16/2/4/1 for his career and I was run out of town for suggesting Smart is that caliber of player.

 Haha I love it! That's a Tp right now for Smarts big game!

 It was a nice comp. Smarts got a long way to go but man is he making strides.

 Well done Pick and Roll! Keep bringing Smart the good JuJu!

[guava_wrench]

Haven't we done this before?

..
I believe if Noel continues to develop, you can build a top-level defense around him.  He looks like a future DPOY candidate and should improve with better supporting cast.  While Horford is a huge addition, he's still not a rim protector.

...

The bad:  I've spent too much time on this forum.  I've been brainwashed into believing that Marcus Smart still has untapped potential and may break-out this season.  It really has to happen this year, though.  I haven't lost hope.  Year 3 is a big one for a lot of prospects. 

...

I just wanted to clarify what seems to me like an inconsistency. There two players are the exact same age. Why did you allow for Noel to "continue to develop" while talking like Smart has reached his peak? These guys are both 22 and were born a month apart. Are you saying that Noel is so much better right now than Smart and the Smart should have shown more already like Noel?

[trickybilly]

Ugh, so embarrassing to see my choice now...

Still, I think you have to think about it still (if Embiid is thrown in)..