Poll: Marcus for Nerlens straight up

[Moranis]

I really can't understand why anyone would prefer Smart to Noel.

One has been a contributing factor in a playoff team that won 40 and 48 games the last two seasons, can't shoot a lick but can handle and pass the ball, has the physical build to potentially dominate other players at his position, has shown exceptional defensive ability and a great competitive drive.

The other has been a non-factor on a team that won 28 games total the last two seasons, can't shoot a lick AND can't dribble, catch or pass the ball, is a physical weakling at his position, has shown exceptional defensive potential but hasn't really demonstrated anything as far as competitive spirit or leadership.  Oh, and he's also shown that his level of performance is VERY dependent on who is playing with.

What's not to understand?

Mike

Noel can't catch, but yet is an ideal pick and roll/alley oop player.  Noel can't pass, yet averages close to 2 assists a game.  Noel's hand are terrible yet averages over 2 steals a game. 

Noel is obviously a terrible overall offensive player, but he is at least smart enough to know he shouldn't be shooting it from distance, so he doesn't.  55% of his shots are dunks or layups and he hits 72% of those.  At least he understands his offensive limitations and plays to his strengths.

And you say, Smart contributes to Boston, yet Smart's winshares are less than Noel's in each of the last two seasons.  Smart is responsible for less wins than Noel despite playing a team that had 60 more wins over the last two years.  Sometimes I think you guys don't quite understand what you are saying.  Noel has outperformed Smart in virtually every way.  He is also younger and plays at a far more difficult position to fill because there are a lot less 6'11" guys than 6'4" guys.

[MBunge]

I really can't understand why anyone would prefer Smart to Noel.

One has been a contributing factor in a playoff team that won 40 and 48 games the last two seasons, can't shoot a lick but can handle and pass the ball, has the physical build to potentially dominate other players at his position, has shown exceptional defensive ability and a great competitive drive.

The other has been a non-factor on a team that won 28 games total the last two seasons, can't shoot a lick AND can't dribble, catch or pass the ball, is a physical weakling at his position, has shown exceptional defensive potential but hasn't really demonstrated anything as far as competitive spirit or leadership.  Oh, and he's also shown that his level of performance is VERY dependent on who is playing with.

What's not to understand?

Mike

Noel can't catch, but yet is an ideal pick and roll/alley oop player.  Noel can't pass, yet averages close to 2 assists a game.  Noel's hand are terrible yet averages over 2 steals a game. 

Noel is obviously a terrible overall offensive player, but he is at least smart enough to know he shouldn't be shooting it from distance, so he doesn't.  55% of his shots are dunks or layups and he hits 72% of those.  At least he understands his offensive limitations and plays to his strengths.

And you say, Smart contributes to Boston, yet Smart's winshares are less than Noel's in each of the last two seasons.  Smart is responsible for less wins than Noel despite playing a team that had 60 more wins over the last two years.  Sometimes I think you guys don't quite understand what you are saying.  Noel has outperformed Smart in virtually every way.  He is also younger and plays at a far more difficult position to fill because there are a lot less 6'11" guys than 6'4" guys.

1.  By definition, Noel CANNOT be an "ideal" pick-n-roll player because he can't shoot, so there's no threat he's going to pick-n-pop, and he can't dribble, so you can't run the play with him more than 15 feet from the basket.

2.  Oh, wow!  You mean Noel can throw down alley oop jams?  That's an unprecedented talent for an NBA center!

3.  Even actual Philly fans don't deny that Nerlens has hands of stone.

4.  Saying he knows how much he sucks is pretty much a textbook example of "[dang]ing with faint praise."

5.  YOU are the one who doesn't understand what you are saying.

"I really can't understand why anyone would prefer Smart to Noel."

You don't have to prefer Smart to Noel but to claim you don't understand why anyone would is pretty much a textbook example of "calling other people stupid while actually revealing you are stupid."

Mike

[celticsclay]

I really can't understand why anyone would prefer Smart to Noel.

One has been a contributing factor in a playoff team that won 40 and 48 games the last two seasons, can't shoot a lick but can handle and pass the ball, has the physical build to potentially dominate other players at his position, has shown exceptional defensive ability and a great competitive drive.

The other has been a non-factor on a team that won 28 games total the last two seasons, can't shoot a lick AND can't dribble, catch or pass the ball, is a physical weakling at his position, has shown exceptional defensive potential but hasn't really demonstrated anything as far as competitive spirit or leadership.  Oh, and he's also shown that his level of performance is VERY dependent on who is playing with.

What's not to understand?

Mike

Noel can't catch, but yet is an ideal pick and roll/alley oop player.  Noel can't pass, yet averages close to 2 assists a game.  Noel's hand are terrible yet averages over 2 steals a game. 

Noel is obviously a terrible overall offensive player, but he is at least smart enough to know he shouldn't be shooting it from distance, so he doesn't.  55% of his shots are dunks or layups and he hits 72% of those.  At least he understands his offensive limitations and plays to his strengths.

And you say, Smart contributes to Boston, yet Smart's winshares are less than Noel's in each of the last two seasons.  Smart is responsible for less wins than Noel despite playing a team that had 60 more wins over the last two years.  Sometimes I think you guys don't quite understand what you are saying.  Noel has outperformed Smart in virtually every way.  He is also younger and plays at a far more difficult position to fill because there are a lot less 6'11" guys than 6'4" guys.

1.  By definition, Noel CANNOT be an "ideal" pick-n-roll player because he can't shoot, so there's no threat he's going to pick-n-pop, and he can't dribble, so you can't run the play with him more than 15 feet from the basket.

2.  Oh, wow!  You mean Noel can throw down alley oop jams?  That's an unprecedented talent for an NBA center!

3.  Even actual Philly fans don't deny that Nerlens has hands of stone.

4.  Saying he knows how much he sucks is pretty much a textbook example of "[dang]ing with faint praise."

5.  YOU are the one who doesn't understand what you are saying.

"I really can't understand why anyone would prefer Smart to Noel."

You don't have to prefer Smart to Noel but to claim you don't understand why anyone would is pretty much a textbook example of "calling other people stupid while actually revealing you are stupid."

Mike

Can't emphasis this last point enough. We are not talking about trading Lebron James for James Young here. They are both flawed players with different strengths and weaknesses. People can have reasonable reasons for preferring smart or for preferring Noel. Coming out and saying people don't understand basketball because they prefer one over the other is both uncalled for and against the forum rules. Do better. (as is the response mike)

[PickNRoll]

I have no statistical evidence, but I watched about 15 sixers games last year and in my opinion he's not an elite defender.  He's roughly on par with Amir Johnson, just with more theatrics and more mistakes.  A guy like DeAndre Jordan warps the entire court.  You never get that sense with Noel.  He can be moved out of a play by a SF.  Not elite.

There's layers there to pull through.  Did you happen to catch games he was playing out of position?  We're talking about a 10 win team that was intentionally trying to lose games.  They didn't really have NBA players on that roster for the most part.  FWIW, he had by far the highest defensive rating on the team.  He also put up far better stats as the starting Center than he did as a PF.  We also saw him make a leap when Ish Smith returned - so maybe he'd succeed with decent players surrounding him. 

The kid could probably flourish on this team.

The games were evenly distributed, more or less.  They improved from a D-league team to simply the worst team with Ish.  The effort was surprisingly good throughout.  Credit to coach Brown.  I don't think it matters if he was playing 4 or 5, tbh.

My problem with Noel is that his game is defined by highlight reel blocks and alley-oops.  He plays with a sort of anticipation of the next highlight.  For every weak side shot block, he gives up an offensive rebound.  For every steal, he turns the ball over twice.  He grabs a nice rebound in traffic and you'd like him to make a quick outlet pass, but he palms the ball instead, celebrating his rebound.  It's like he's playing his own game. Basically the opposite of Smart.

He'd probably look significantly better on a real basketball team.

I don't see why that would be true.  e.g. the Spurs don't select players like Noel and mold them into good players.  They draft intelligent, team-oriented players.  You'll never see Noel on the Spurs, I guarantee that.

Maybe the problem with Noel is expectations.  People think he can be an elite center some day because he was a top pick.  That just isn't true.  He should focus on being the best Tyson Chandler he can be.

Tyson Chandler was the #2 pick in his draft.

And he had a nice career as a role player.  He wasn't Hakeem Olajuwon.  That's my point.  Noel's ceiling is in the Tyson Chandler range, not the Hakeem range.

Who said he had Hakeem potential?  I think it's well known Tyson Chandler is the comp. 

The question, then, becomes whether or not you think Tony Allen or Tyson Chandler makes more of an impact on a team.   Tony's a great defender, but he has only so much impact on the game.  Tyson Chandler was a DPOY and helped a team win a championship.   As others have said, if you're choosing between two defense-only players, you go with the big.

That said, I still truly hope Marcus Smart makes a leap next season and surpasses what looks like a Tony Allen ceiling right now.

I think Smart is more Joe Dumars than Tony Allen, and I don't think Noel ever reaches  that Tyson Chandler ceiling.  It's too simple to say they're both defensive players.  Smart shows the best defensive fundamentals and instincts I've seen in 35 years.  Noel is behind the curve.

That's funny.  I think there is a decent to very good chance that Noel can be become Tyson Chandler.  I think it is a perfect comp and that there is a  chance it happens.  On the other hand, I think there is virtually no chance that Smart becomes Joe Dumars, who is in the Hall of Fame for ****. 

Kind of tired of seeing fans not understand the idea of a combo guy, which I presume people think of when they think of Smart.  They see a guy that isn't a true PG, isn't a true SG and think hey, he's both; just like Joe Dumars!

The difference is, Dumars could handle multiple roles WELL.  All Smart has shown offensively is that he can't handle either well.  There is a huge difference between someone like Smart and Joe Dumars.

Dumars was 6'3, 200ish, long wingspan, smart, gritty, physical, great defender.  He shot 20% on threes in his second year.  He averaged 9 and 12 points over his first two seasons but blossomed into a reliable 20 point scorer.  He didn't have a great first step.  He didn't get to the FT line much in his first few years, but became more aggressive in the middle stages of his career.  He was never a #1 option, really more of a 3rd or 4th option.  He shared ball handling duties with IT.  He averaged 4.5 assists for his career, never a true distributor or playmaker, but decent. Later in his career he became a great post-up guard and developed a nice floater --the same things Smart is working on.  His build, his role, his play style, his career trajectory... nearly an exact match and a perfect role model for Smart.

[LarBrd33]

Forum poll:
trade Marcus:22%
no trade: 50%

Front page poll:
trade Marcus:40%
no trade: 47%

Interesting gap there... are forum fans more hardcore/homers/green tint glasses type? 

i pinged libertyballers suggesting they put the same poll on their page to see how their fans would feel about it.  They laughed it off and told me almost all of their fans will say no.  If both fan bases hate it, it probably means it's a mostly fair deal.

[celticsclay]

Forum poll:
trade Marcus:22%
no trade: 50%

Front page poll:
trade Marcus:40%
no trade: 47%

Interesting gap there... are forum fans more hardcore/homers/green tint glasses type? 

i pinged libertyballers suggesting they put the same poll on their page to see how their fans would feel about it.  They laughed it off and told me almost all of their fans will say no.  If both fan bases hate it, it probably means it's a mostly fair deal.

This is probably true

[LarBrd33]

Forum poll:
trade Marcus:22%
no trade: 50%

Front page poll:
trade Marcus:40%
no trade: 47%

Interesting gap there... are forum fans more hardcore/homers/green tint glasses type? 

i pinged libertyballers suggesting they put the same poll on their page to see how their fans would feel about it.  They laughed it off and told me almost all of their fans will say no.  If both fan bases hate it, it probably means it's a mostly fair deal.

This is probably true

Celtic fans be like, "Nerlens Noel is garbage offensively.  Marcus Smart is gonna be a star.  No way!"

Philly fans be like, "Marcus Smart is the worst shooter in NBA history.  Nerlens Noel is going to be a perennial DPOY.  Hell no!"

If we're just basing it on what these guys have done so far and considering the other talent we have at guard, trading Smart for Noel is an no-brainer.  It's hard to think about this deal reasonably, though because fans here inherently have more faith in the development of Celtic players.

[celticsclay]

Forum poll:
trade Marcus:22%
no trade: 50%

Front page poll:
trade Marcus:40%
no trade: 47%

Interesting gap there... are forum fans more hardcore/homers/green tint glasses type? 

i pinged libertyballers suggesting they put the same poll on their page to see how their fans would feel about it.  They laughed it off and told me almost all of their fans will say no.  If both fan bases hate it, it probably means it's a mostly fair deal.

This is probably true

Celtic fans be like, "Nerlens Noel is garbage offensively.  Marcus Smart is gonna be a star.  No way!"

Philly fans be like, "Marcus Smart is the worst shooter in NBA history.  Nerlens Noel is going to be a perennial DPOY.  Hell no!"

If we're just basing it on what these guys have done so far and considering the other talent we have at guard, trading Smart for Noel is an no-brainer.  It's hard to think about this deal reasonably, though because fans here inherently have more faith in the development of Celtic players.

I think all that is true, but I think shooting is also the one area people really think someone can improve in cause there have been players like Kidd, Leonard etc that went from terrible shooters to being above average over the course of a couple of years. Heck even a role player like Fariq Aminu improved his 3% by almost 10% last year. We can all imagine if Smart increased his shooting like these other guard/small forwards have he would be that much better a player. However, it seems like Noel's biggest weaknesses are really bad hands, extremely slight frame, poor handle and mediocre free throw shooter.  There seems to be less examples I can think of a guy improving his hands or a small frame.

[PickNRoll]

Is there any precedent for a 7-footer who is a poor-to-middling rebounder with no offensive game starting on a successful team?  Maybe Jason Collins from that uptempo Nets team?  I can't think of many.

There's too big an opportunity cost involved in playing a guy as 1-dimensional as Noel.  Sometimes your opponent is driving the ball into the paint.  At every other moment, he's a liability -- worse than replacement level.  You could grab a guy like Zaza Pachulia or Tiago Splitter and your team is better in every way except shot blocking.  You're just scr3wed when Tristan Thompson or Deandre Jordan or Andre Drummond are beating up your center and eating his lunch.  You can't play the guy.

[KG Living Legend]

I have no statistical evidence, but I watched about 15 sixers games last year and in my opinion he's not an elite defender.  He's roughly on par with Amir Johnson, just with more theatrics and more mistakes.  A guy like DeAndre Jordan warps the entire court.  You never get that sense with Noel.  He can be moved out of a play by a SF.  Not elite.

There's layers there to pull through.  Did you happen to catch games he was playing out of position?  We're talking about a 10 win team that was intentionally trying to lose games.  They didn't really have NBA players on that roster for the most part.  FWIW, he had by far the highest defensive rating on the team.  He also put up far better stats as the starting Center than he did as a PF.  We also saw him make a leap when Ish Smith returned - so maybe he'd succeed with decent players surrounding him. 

The kid could probably flourish on this team.

The games were evenly distributed, more or less.  They improved from a D-league team to simply the worst team with Ish.  The effort was surprisingly good throughout.  Credit to coach Brown.  I don't think it matters if he was playing 4 or 5, tbh.

My problem with Noel is that his game is defined by highlight reel blocks and alley-oops.  He plays with a sort of anticipation of the next highlight.  For every weak side shot block, he gives up an offensive rebound.  For every steal, he turns the ball over twice.  He grabs a nice rebound in traffic and you'd like him to make a quick outlet pass, but he palms the ball instead, celebrating his rebound.  It's like he's playing his own game. Basically the opposite of Smart.

He'd probably look significantly better on a real basketball team.

I don't see why that would be true.  e.g. the Spurs don't select players like Noel and mold them into good players.  They draft intelligent, team-oriented players.  You'll never see Noel on the Spurs, I guarantee that.

Maybe the problem with Noel is expectations.  People think he can be an elite center some day because he was a top pick.  That just isn't true.  He should focus on being the best Tyson Chandler he can be.

Tyson Chandler was the #2 pick in his draft.

And he had a nice career as a role player.  He wasn't Hakeem Olajuwon.  That's my point.  Noel's ceiling is in the Tyson Chandler range, not the Hakeem range.

Who said he had Hakeem potential?  I think it's well known Tyson Chandler is the comp. 

The question, then, becomes whether or not you think Tony Allen or Tyson Chandler makes more of an impact on a team.   Tony's a great defender, but he has only so much impact on the game.  Tyson Chandler was a DPOY and helped a team win a championship.   As others have said, if you're choosing between two defense-only players, you go with the big.

That said, I still truly hope Marcus Smart makes a leap next season and surpasses what looks like a Tony Allen ceiling right now.

I think Smart is more Joe Dumars than Tony Allen, and I don't think Noel ever reaches  that Tyson Chandler ceiling.  It's too simple to say they're both defensive players.  Smart shows the best defensive fundamentals and instincts I've seen in 35 years.  Noel is behind the curve.

That's funny.  I think there is a decent to very good chance that Noel can be become Tyson Chandler.  I think it is a perfect comp and that there is a  chance it happens.  On the other hand, I think there is virtually no chance that Smart becomes Joe Dumars, who is in the Hall of Fame for ****. 

Kind of tired of seeing fans not understand the idea of a combo guy, which I presume people think of when they think of Smart.  They see a guy that isn't a true PG, isn't a true SG and think hey, he's both; just like Joe Dumars!

The difference is, Dumars could handle multiple roles WELL.  All Smart has shown offensively is that he can't handle either well.  There is a huge difference between someone like Smart and Joe Dumars.

Dumars was 6'3, 200ish, long wingspan, smart, gritty, physical, great defender.  He shot 20% on threes in his second year.  He averaged 9 and 12 points over his first two seasons but blossomed into a reliable 20 point scorer.  He didn't have a great first step.  He didn't get to the FT line much in his first few years, but became more aggressive in the middle stages of his career.  He was never a #1 option, really more of a 3rd or 4th option.  He shared ball handling duties with IT.  He averaged 4.5 assists for his career, never a true distributor or playmaker, but decent. Later in his career he became a great post-up guard and developed a nice floater --the same things Smart is working on.  His build, his role, his play style, his career trajectory... nearly an exact match and a perfect role model for Smart.

 Wow man, talk about Bold predictions. If smart ends up anything close to Joe D, I'll give you 100 Tp's just for the bold prediction.

 Joe also peaked out at 23.5 ppg. Smart will never do that. Joe shot .843% career at e free throw line and peaked at .900% smart can't shoot like that.

 Joe shot .382% from three fit his career and peaked at .432% doubtful smart ever comes close.

 But they are both great defenders and they both play basketball so there are some similarities.
 

[LarBrd33]

I have no statistical evidence, but I watched about 15 sixers games last year and in my opinion he's not an elite defender.  He's roughly on par with Amir Johnson, just with more theatrics and more mistakes.  A guy like DeAndre Jordan warps the entire court.  You never get that sense with Noel.  He can be moved out of a play by a SF.  Not elite.

There's layers there to pull through.  Did you happen to catch games he was playing out of position?  We're talking about a 10 win team that was intentionally trying to lose games.  They didn't really have NBA players on that roster for the most part.  FWIW, he had by far the highest defensive rating on the team.  He also put up far better stats as the starting Center than he did as a PF.  We also saw him make a leap when Ish Smith returned - so maybe he'd succeed with decent players surrounding him. 

The kid could probably flourish on this team.

The games were evenly distributed, more or less.  They improved from a D-league team to simply the worst team with Ish.  The effort was surprisingly good throughout.  Credit to coach Brown.  I don't think it matters if he was playing 4 or 5, tbh.

My problem with Noel is that his game is defined by highlight reel blocks and alley-oops.  He plays with a sort of anticipation of the next highlight.  For every weak side shot block, he gives up an offensive rebound.  For every steal, he turns the ball over twice.  He grabs a nice rebound in traffic and you'd like him to make a quick outlet pass, but he palms the ball instead, celebrating his rebound.  It's like he's playing his own game. Basically the opposite of Smart.

He'd probably look significantly better on a real basketball team.

I don't see why that would be true.  e.g. the Spurs don't select players like Noel and mold them into good players.  They draft intelligent, team-oriented players.  You'll never see Noel on the Spurs, I guarantee that.

Maybe the problem with Noel is expectations.  People think he can be an elite center some day because he was a top pick.  That just isn't true.  He should focus on being the best Tyson Chandler he can be.

Tyson Chandler was the #2 pick in his draft.

And he had a nice career as a role player.  He wasn't Hakeem Olajuwon.  That's my point.  Noel's ceiling is in the Tyson Chandler range, not the Hakeem range.

Who said he had Hakeem potential?  I think it's well known Tyson Chandler is the comp. 

The question, then, becomes whether or not you think Tony Allen or Tyson Chandler makes more of an impact on a team.   Tony's a great defender, but he has only so much impact on the game.  Tyson Chandler was a DPOY and helped a team win a championship.   As others have said, if you're choosing between two defense-only players, you go with the big.

That said, I still truly hope Marcus Smart makes a leap next season and surpasses what looks like a Tony Allen ceiling right now.

I think Smart is more Joe Dumars than Tony Allen, and I don't think Noel ever reaches  that Tyson Chandler ceiling.  It's too simple to say they're both defensive players.  Smart shows the best defensive fundamentals and instincts I've seen in 35 years.  Noel is behind the curve.

That's funny.  I think there is a decent to very good chance that Noel can be become Tyson Chandler.  I think it is a perfect comp and that there is a  chance it happens.  On the other hand, I think there is virtually no chance that Smart becomes Joe Dumars, who is in the Hall of Fame for ****. 

Kind of tired of seeing fans not understand the idea of a combo guy, which I presume people think of when they think of Smart.  They see a guy that isn't a true PG, isn't a true SG and think hey, he's both; just like Joe Dumars!

The difference is, Dumars could handle multiple roles WELL.  All Smart has shown offensively is that he can't handle either well.  There is a huge difference between someone like Smart and Joe Dumars.

Dumars was 6'3, 200ish, long wingspan, smart, gritty, physical, great defender.  He shot 20% on threes in his second year.  He averaged 9 and 12 points over his first two seasons but blossomed into a reliable 20 point scorer.  He didn't have a great first step.  He didn't get to the FT line much in his first few years, but became more aggressive in the middle stages of his career.  He was never a #1 option, really more of a 3rd or 4th option.  He shared ball handling duties with IT.  He averaged 4.5 assists for his career, never a true distributor or playmaker, but decent. Later in his career he became a great post-up guard and developed a nice floater --the same things Smart is working on.  His build, his role, his play style, his career trajectory... nearly an exact match and a perfect role model for Smart.

 Wow man, talk about Bold predictions. If smart ends up anything close to Joe D, I'll give you 100 Tp's just for the bold prediction.

 Joe also peaked out at 23.5 ppg. Smart will never do that. Joe shot .843% career at e free throw line and peaked at .900% smart can't shoot like that.

 Joe shot .382% from three fit his career and peaked at .432% doubtful smart ever comes close.

 But they are both great defenders and they both play basketball so there are some similarities.

Comparing Smart to Joe Dumars is akin to comparing Noel to Kevin Garnett. 

Sure, if we ignore the fact that both Smart and Noel are completely atrocious offensively, both comparisons make sense.

[LarBrd33]

In 28 games at his natural starting center position, Noel put up Per-36 numbers of 16 points, 10 rebounds, 2.5 assists, 2.5 steals, 1.8 blocks with 55% shooting.   I still would really love the kid in Boston. 

[droopdog7]

I have no statistical evidence, but I watched about 15 sixers games last year and in my opinion he's not an elite defender.  He's roughly on par with Amir Johnson, just with more theatrics and more mistakes.  A guy like DeAndre Jordan warps the entire court.  You never get that sense with Noel.  He can be moved out of a play by a SF.  Not elite.

There's layers there to pull through.  Did you happen to catch games he was playing out of position?  We're talking about a 10 win team that was intentionally trying to lose games.  They didn't really have NBA players on that roster for the most part.  FWIW, he had by far the highest defensive rating on the team.  He also put up far better stats as the starting Center than he did as a PF.  We also saw him make a leap when Ish Smith returned - so maybe he'd succeed with decent players surrounding him. 

The kid could probably flourish on this team.

The games were evenly distributed, more or less.  They improved from a D-league team to simply the worst team with Ish.  The effort was surprisingly good throughout.  Credit to coach Brown.  I don't think it matters if he was playing 4 or 5, tbh.

My problem with Noel is that his game is defined by highlight reel blocks and alley-oops.  He plays with a sort of anticipation of the next highlight.  For every weak side shot block, he gives up an offensive rebound.  For every steal, he turns the ball over twice.  He grabs a nice rebound in traffic and you'd like him to make a quick outlet pass, but he palms the ball instead, celebrating his rebound.  It's like he's playing his own game. Basically the opposite of Smart.

He'd probably look significantly better on a real basketball team.

I don't see why that would be true.  e.g. the Spurs don't select players like Noel and mold them into good players.  They draft intelligent, team-oriented players.  You'll never see Noel on the Spurs, I guarantee that.

Maybe the problem with Noel is expectations.  People think he can be an elite center some day because he was a top pick.  That just isn't true.  He should focus on being the best Tyson Chandler he can be.

Tyson Chandler was the #2 pick in his draft.

And he had a nice career as a role player.  He wasn't Hakeem Olajuwon.  That's my point.  Noel's ceiling is in the Tyson Chandler range, not the Hakeem range.

Who said he had Hakeem potential?  I think it's well known Tyson Chandler is the comp. 

The question, then, becomes whether or not you think Tony Allen or Tyson Chandler makes more of an impact on a team.   Tony's a great defender, but he has only so much impact on the game.  Tyson Chandler was a DPOY and helped a team win a championship.   As others have said, if you're choosing between two defense-only players, you go with the big.

That said, I still truly hope Marcus Smart makes a leap next season and surpasses what looks like a Tony Allen ceiling right now.

I think Smart is more Joe Dumars than Tony Allen, and I don't think Noel ever reaches  that Tyson Chandler ceiling.  It's too simple to say they're both defensive players.  Smart shows the best defensive fundamentals and instincts I've seen in 35 years.  Noel is behind the curve.

That's funny.  I think there is a decent to very good chance that Noel can be become Tyson Chandler.  I think it is a perfect comp and that there is a  chance it happens.  On the other hand, I think there is virtually no chance that Smart becomes Joe Dumars, who is in the Hall of Fame for ****. 

Kind of tired of seeing fans not understand the idea of a combo guy, which I presume people think of when they think of Smart.  They see a guy that isn't a true PG, isn't a true SG and think hey, he's both; just like Joe Dumars!

The difference is, Dumars could handle multiple roles WELL.  All Smart has shown offensively is that he can't handle either well.  There is a huge difference between someone like Smart and Joe Dumars.

Dumars was 6'3, 200ish, long wingspan, smart, gritty, physical, great defender.  He shot 20% on threes in his second year.  He averaged 9 and 12 points over his first two seasons but blossomed into a reliable 20 point scorer.  He didn't have a great first step.  He didn't get to the FT line much in his first few years, but became more aggressive in the middle stages of his career.  He was never a #1 option, really more of a 3rd or 4th option.  He shared ball handling duties with IT.  He averaged 4.5 assists for his career, never a true distributor or playmaker, but decent. Later in his career he became a great post-up guard and developed a nice floater --the same things Smart is working on.  His build, his role, his play style, his career trajectory... nearly an exact match and a perfect role model for Smart.

This is another thing that annoys we regarding fan logic.  You take one guy, that struggled initially but has a similar build to another guy.  And then you say, see, this guy can become that guy.  What is missing is that there are a whole bunch of players that that struggle initially, and have a similar build than that guy, that never amount to anything.

Yet we get these analogies ALL the time.

[celticsclay]

In 28 games at his natural starting center position, Noel put up Per-36 numbers of 16 points, 10 rebounds, 2.5 assists, 2.5 steals, 1.8 blocks with 55% shooting.   I still would really love the kid in Boston.

In 7 games during the harvest moon festival when his first shot attempt was left-handed Noel averaged an unfathomable 29 points per 42 minutes per game.

Come on LB, this guy has been there 2 years. One with Okafor, one without him. He played worse with Okafor for sure, but at no point was this guy dominant. He also can't play center full-time cause he weighs 230 pounds. How will he guard (and stay on the court for 36 minutes no less)
Half the league at least has a starting center with 30-60+ pounds on this guy.

[The Oracle]

This trade would never happen for the simple fact of how restrictive Noel's cap hold would be next off season.  His cap hold will be I believe $10,961,225.  Trading Smart for him would cost the C's around $6.4 million in cap space for next year making it impossible to create max cap space without trading multiple other rotation players for no salary in return.  I wouldn't begin to think of trading Smart for Noel simply based on their value as players, let alone the additional losses it would result in next off season.