The case for starting JJ over Amir and KO at the 4

[jpotter33]

I've been thinking about this a lot lately, and the more I think about it the more I'm certain that JJ would ultimately be the best fit for us starting at the 4. Now, of course if we plan on keeping KO and want him to be the 4 next to Horford for us longer term, then that would certainly be a good argument for starting him as much as possible. However, I'm not necessarily considering that, and I'm just considering who would be the best fit at the 4 for us this year with this current group with IT, Bradley, Crowder, and Horford starting at the 1, 2, 3, and 5, respectively.

What are the main things we need from the 4 this year?
1) Rebounding
2) Floor-Spacing
3) Defensive Versatility (both ability to switch onto forwards/guards and a focus on perimeter D)

Rebounding: 1) Amir, 2) JJ, 3) KO

Amir is pretty clearly the best rebounder of the bunch. He was a pretty good rebounder for us last year, even next to Sully, and his ORB%, DRB%, and TRB% were 10.3, 19.6, and 14.9. His biggest advantage is in offensive rebounding, compared to JJ (6.8 ) and KO (5.4). However, JJ nearly equaled him in DRB% with 19.4 with KO farther behind at 16.2. This held in the playoffs, too, where Amir went 8.1, 26.6, and 16.8 compared to JJ's 4.2, 23.4, and 13.2. So Amir is the best rebounder of the group, and JJ is a little behind him with KO quite a ways behind him.

Floor-Spacing: 1) KO, 2) JJ, 3) Amir

Similar to above, the first two have quite a separation over the third guy. KO and JJ are excellent shooters, especially from the corners. For FG%, 3P%, and eFG%, KO went .455, .405, and .531 for the season. Not far behind, JJ went .413, .398, and .488 for the season. Amir had an excellent fg% at .585, but he was essentially not a three point threat at .233 only attempting one every two games, not to mention how long it took him to get off his shot. However, in the playoffs as a started JJ upped his game significantly. While his 3P% dropped a bit to .318, though we know he's still a major threat from beyond the arc, his FG%(.478) and eFG%(.554) improved quite a bit as the starter.

This is one of the most important roles that our starting PF will play this year, because it will finally give the C's some easy opportunities for points in the half court setting. Think about it - last year neither Amir nor Sully represented any significant floor-spacing threat, which killed the spacing for IT in his penetration. This year with either Horford/JJ or Horford/KO, every single player on the floor will be a pretty big threat from beyond the arc, creating massive space for IT's penetration. In the halfcourt setting this will be huge for us, because in Brad's pace and space offense, all we have to do is move 2-4 out beyond the arc to give IT all the necessary room to either penetrate and score or penetrate and kick if the defense collapses. This will finally be the easy, reliable offense that we've so desperately been missing in past years.

Defensive Versatility: 1) JJ, 2) Amir, 3) KO

This is another area where the top two provide significant distance from the third player. Both JJ and Amir are above average defenders, but they're better in differing areas. Amir is a much better rim-protector than JJ, as evidenced by his block numbers/percentages; however, JJ is the much better perimeter defender due to his athleticism and foot speed/lateral movement that Amir no longer has. Now, Amir is no slouch, but he was constantly falling down when switching onto smaller/faster players due to simply not having the lateral speed that he once had, especially out on the perimeter. When we think of a team like Cleveland, I'd much rather have JJ out there with his ability to switch onto James and Irving than Amir, and definitely not KO.

So how does all of this come together to make JJ the best fit for us starting at the 4? Well, it's clear that he provides the best two-way fit for this current group.

While Amir would provide better rebounding and rim protection, JJ provides better perimeter defense and defensive versatility than Amir, which we need more than rim protection at the 4 with Horford at the 5, and he is a only a marginally worse rebounder than Amir, especially on the defensive end. And while KO would provide better playmaking and marginally better shooting than JJ, Horford's presence and excellent playmaking from the big position makes playmaking at the 4 less of a concern, and JJ is only a marginally worse floor-spacing threat than KO.

One other advantage of starting JJ would be that you also strengthen the bench with the excellent pairing of KO and Amir together. A bench of Rozier, Green, Smart, Brown, KO, Amir, and Zeller is arguably the best in the league, and it legitimately allows Stevens to go 10-12 deep regularly in the season without too much drop in play.

Thus, while KO might be the better offensive player and Amir the better rebounder and rim-protecting big, JJ is the more solid overall player and the best fit next to Horford in the starting lineup that doesn't necessarily provide the big holes that KO (rebounding and defensive versatility) and Amir (floor-spacing) do.

Thoughts?

[CelticPride2016]

It's not an outrageous idea considering Brad started Zeller and Lee. Who saw that coming?

I think if there's any way Amir and Horford can work, they should start. They are the two best and established. If not, I imagine it will be Olynyk or the wild card Jerebko.

Brad's got a stacked roster card. He'll have thirteen guys all deserving of minutes or some sort of opportunity, maybe 15 once Young is waived.

And with all that depth, there will be no excuses for running any one player into the ground.

[Snakehead]

You discount KO's defense (actually basically don't even mention anything about it) but watching him I thought he was quite good last year and the numbers back that up as well (I believe he had the best advanced defensive numbers on the team straight up, not that I am a purely numbers guy on defense).  Yeah he isn't as great switching onto SFs as Jerebko would be but he was quite good last year in our defense that requires that kind of thing all the time.

I don't think it's a bad argument that you suggest.  I personally think we should start Olynyk and try to come out with decent offense instead of the slow starts of last year where we would get in a hole and rely on the bench to get us out of it.  Also, we need shooting and he's our best shooter.

In the end, I really think Amir should be coming in for Horford and be the back up C more than anything else.  He is really good in that role and a quality player, I just think with Horford out there being the focus we have better fits  to play with him.  Jerebko and Amir would be nice to have off the bench together in my mind.

[Moranis]

I can't see JJ starting.  He just isn't a good enough player overall for a team that expects to win 50 games and be among the better teams in the league.  If he had that one elite skill, then yeah, you could start a lesser player, but that is not JJ. 

[rollie mass]

the 2nd team with kelly and amir smart ,rozier ,green and brown
 thats some strong d for a 2nd team

[timpiker]

Not sure about starting JJ but I do hope he gets a lot of minutes.  We need rebounding big time.

[Rosco917]

Solid subject to bring up. TP

I think it's more of how we use Horford. If we use him as mostly as a stretch 4/5 with him operating in the seams, and near the 3 point line, I feel Amir is a good fit with him. Amir who is not really an offensive threat, but still doesn't need to setup directly under the basket to be effective. I just love the defense with Horford and Amir on the floor at the same time. Also better rebounding with Amir on the floor.

This is he value of a player like Horford...he fits well with a multitude of players in the style our coach likes to play, JJ or Kelly or Crowder at the 4, big or small. 

[jpotter33]

I can't see JJ starting.  He just isn't a good enough player overall for a team that expects to win 50 games and be among the better teams in the league.  If he had that one elite skill, then yeah, you could start a lesser player, but that is not JJ.

But that's kind of the point of my argument. Where KO and Amir might have areas where they're pretty good at, they also have critical holes in their games that would detrimentally affect their fit at the 4 spot on our team. JJ, on the other hand, is solid to good at the three major areas of need that I identified without having to sacrifice one of them for another, which is why I think he's the best option we have for the 4 spot.

Besides, outside of KO's shooting, which is definitely elite for a big but is only marginally better than JJ's shooting, none of the three are really "elite" at anything like you say. So wouldn't that also relate to KO and Amir just as much as JJ?

[jpotter33]

the 2nd team with kelly and amir smart ,rozier ,green and brown
 thats some strong d for a 2nd team

Yep. Additionally, KO's playmaking from the big position would be helpful to Smart and Rozier.

On the other hand, if we start Amir and have KO and JJ as the main bigs off the bench, think of how much room and spacing that Smart, Rozier, and Brown are going to have to get to the hole!

[Moranis]

I can't see JJ starting.  He just isn't a good enough player overall for a team that expects to win 50 games and be among the better teams in the league.  If he had that one elite skill, then yeah, you could start a lesser player, but that is not JJ.

But that's kind of the point of my argument. Where KO and Amir might have areas where they're pretty good at, they also have critical holes in their games that would detrimentally affect their fit at the 4 spot on our team. JJ, on the other hand, is solid to good at the three major areas of need that I identified without having to sacrifice one of them for another, which is why I think he's the best option we have for the 4 spot.

Besides, outside of KO's shooting, which is definitely elite for a big but is only marginally better than JJ's shooting, none of the three are really "elite" at anything like you say. So wouldn't that also relate to KO and Amir just as much as JJ?

KO and Amir are both better overall players than JJ.  So no, it isn't the same thing.  You start the lesser player when he is elite at something you are lacking (like Sefolosha starting over Harden in OKC).  You don't start the lesser overall player when he isn't elite at some deficiency. 

[incoherent]

My only problem with this is we likely arent getting playoff JJ.

JJ went on some really cold stretches last season.

Great post by the way, TP.

[SHAQATTACK]

Interesting discussion.

IF .....KO can return to his best game .  I feel he is man to stand in with Horford .

KO has the most long term potiental and he needs to thrown in the fire , to give him confidence and for the mgmt to study his progress to see if he is going to be worth a big pay day l

I have always like Amire off the bench

KO needs to step up and prove he is an NBA starter ......time is now ......either he is a starter and believes it ...or he is bench journey man for the long haul.

[incoherent]

JJ and KO are going to have be very very good in camp and pre-season to be considered over Amir IMO.

[mctyson]

I've been thinking about this a lot lately, and the more I think about it the more I'm certain that JJ would ultimately be the best fit for us starting at the 4.

Thoughts?

This is a very good and articulate argument but ultimately it comes down to what 5-some will provide the best chance for us to win.  As much as I love both KO and JJ's games (especially JJ, who was a major steal by Danny Ainge), having Amir and Horford in the post in late game situations is going to be deadly defensively.

I think JJ will play over Amir for small-ball lineups.  I do no think KO will play over either until he shows he is equivalent on defense, which he is not.

[jambr380]

I love JJ's versatility and overall game, but agree with some others that he probably shouldn't be the starter. KO has consistently had well-above average +/-. I know it is a simplistic statistic, but at the very least he is a good luck charm and more realistically he is a much better defender than people give him credit for. His playmaking and floor spacing ability also make him a real asset - like a better version of Ryan Anderson kind-of asset.

I don't love Amir's fit with Horford unless Horford proves to be an inept rebounder. I do agree that that duo will be tough against bigger front lines.