Should Lebron just take his money this year in case of a lockout or changed CBA

[Moranis]

There has been more and more talk of a lockout or the Owner's pushing back against the recent salary explosion.  If that happens, the cap would likely dramatically lower next summer and it not be the big boom once thought.  If the Cavs and Warriors again meet in the finals, I suspect that talk will grow even louder in the days leading up to the 2017 draft.  Given that, might it not make sense for Lebron to just sign his massive 5 year contract this summer and thus hedge his bets from the likelihood of a lockout.   That obviously means he would stay in Cleveland through the remainder of his prime years, but would also ensure he gets that massive deal he likely wants.

thoughts?

Edit: Or is this even possible for him given he has only been in Cleveland 2 years?  I'm not sure what Cleveland's actual cap space number is at the moment with all the holds.

[BitterJim]

There has been more and more talk of a lockout or the Owner's pushing back against the recent salary explosion.  If that happens, the cap would likely dramatically lower next summer and it not be the big boom once thought.  If the Cavs and Warriors again meet in the finals, I suspect that talk will grow even louder in the days leading up to the 2017 draft.  Given that, might it not make sense for Lebron to just sign his massive 5 year contract this summer and thus hedge his bets from the likelihood of a lockout.   That obviously means he would stay in Cleveland through the remainder of his prime years, but would also ensure he gets that massive deal he likely wants.

thoughts?

Edit: Or is this even possible for him given he has only been in Cleveland 2 years?  I'm not sure what Cleveland's actual cap space number is at the moment with all the holds.

They don't have his Bird Rights yet, so they could only sign him to a 4 year deal (next summer they can do 5).  Plus, I think he's eligible for a 7.5% raise on his previous year's contract when he signs the new one no matter what

[saltlover]

Cleveland can only sign him to a four-year deal because they only have Early Bird rights.  It can be for the max with max (7.5%) raises, however.

I doubt owners will push back enough that it will affect LeBron.  If they want to do away with super teams, they should get rid of the max salary, which helps LeBron make more.  They could try to institute a hard cap, like the NFL, but that would create a huge fight with players at a time when the NBA is enjoying its highest popularity in history.  Furthermore, undoubtedly there are some owners who would be against a hard cap, because it would make it impossible for them to outspend their opponents, something they are willing to do.  The players would be unified against it, and owners would not be unified for it.

Accordingly, even if the cap is lowered (also unlikely in my opinion) LeBron could still sign for the max next season, because Cleveland would have Bird rights and be able to go over the cap to sign him.  I think he'll sign his five-year deal next year.  Right now, he's enjoying making Dan Gilbert grovel every summer.

[Csfan1984]

Well the cap is going to settle it only spiked because TV contract kicked in. The NBA will resume as it had been the previous years with less teams having a lot of cap space in two years. So LeBron may chose 1+1 contracts till cap hikes stop then sign a 4 or 5 year. That would be just before lock out and before he begins to break down.

Still NBA may also be changing it's max policy to a franchise player policy in which a team will be able to use even more of its cap to sign a single player but so much more that it will only allow for one franchise player contract per team. I'm thinking 45% of cap. This help reduce the odds of super teams and spread high end talent.