Recent #3 Picks

[Moranis]

Since we didn't have enough Jaylen Brown threads, I thought I should start another one. 

Here are the #3 picks since 2010

10 - Favors
11 - Kanter
12 - Beal
13 - Porter
14 - Embiid
15 - Okafor

4 big men two wings.  The two wings are a mixed bag and even Beal that has shown some real talent has injury concerns.  Taking Embiid out of it since he hasn't yet played, the other 3 big men all have shown at least starter level talent.

Going back to 2000

00 - Miles
01 - Gasol
02 - Dunleavy
03 - Anthony
04 - B. Gordon
05 - D. Williams
06 - Morrison
07 - Horford
08 - Mayo
09 - Harden

Just two big men, but both have multiple all star appearances and Gasol is a lock for the HOF.  Of the rest, the only PG was a multiple time all star (Williams), but the wings are again a crazy mixed bag with really only Anthony and Harden ever reaching the big time player status.  Morrison is the only true bust, but by and large a bunch of role players.

So since 2000 it seems pretty apparent that teams reach on the wings, taking high ceiling but low floor players, many of which never come close to the high ceiling.  Contrast that with the big men and they all seem like fairly legit players.  Not all will become HOFers like Gasol, but the talent is there. 

I mention this because these historical trends are often very telling and a guy like Brown is much less like Anthony was coming out (i.e. not a college superstar).  Hopefully Brown reaches his ceiling, but over the last 15 years, that would be quite abnormal especially for wings.

[kozlodoev]

Since we didn't have enough Jaylen Brown threads, I thought I should start another one. 

Who is Jaylen Brown?

[Moranis]

Since we didn't have enough Jaylen Brown threads, I thought I should start another one. 

Who is Jaylen Brown?

I must admit I literally laughed out loud at that one.

[passesofftodj]

Three Hall of Fame locks...not bad.  Ben Gordon had some really nice years.

[yoursweatersux]

Looking at just #3 picks is sort of ridiculous when you consider all of the big men who busted at the other top 5 pick positions (Greg Oden, Anthony Bennet, Bargnani, Hasheem Thabeet, Kwame Brown, Darko Milicic... the list goes on).

Same for point guards.

You'd be hard pressed to argue that premium wing players are any more or less likely to bust than guards or big men on the sole basis of their position. This thread is lunacy

[Eja117]

Three Hall of Fame locks...not bad.  Ben Gordon had some really nice years.

Wow. That's not how I remember it. Maybe I need to go back and look at that

[Moranis]

Looking at just #3 picks is sort of ridiculous when you consider all of the big men who busted at the other top 5 pick positions (Greg Oden, Anthony Bennet, Bargnani, Hasheem Thabeet, Kwame Brown, Darko Milicic... the list goes on).

Same for point guards.

You'd be hard pressed to argue that premium wing players are any more or less likely to bust than guards or big men on the sole basis of their position. This thread is lunacy

Disagree with this premise.  Yes there have been big men busts, but they by and large go top 2 when people reach for the high ceiling but low floor players.  That same type of wing player starts going at #3.  The wings that go top 2 by and large aren't busts and many are HOFers or have that kind of talent (Evan Turner and MKG are pretty much the worst wings taken in the top 2 since 2000).  The wing busts generally start at the 3rd pick. 

[Jiri Welsch]

Three Hall of Fame locks...not bad.  Ben Gordon had some really nice years.

Wow. That's not how I remember it. Maybe I need to go back and look at that

2005-2009 in Chicago were good years.