Thread to debate which undrafted free agents Ainge should have signed

[saltlover]

The free agent signing thread has been hijacked by this debate.  While the debate is interesting, can we bring it here so that people can use that thread to catch up on the news that they missed?

I'll start:

The amount of undrafted free agents who become remotely useful NBA players is so small as to not be worth sacrificing roster spaces in hopes of finding one.  That should be a strategy reserved only for the most bottom-feeder of teams, like Philly recently, or Brooklyn this year.

Even in that case, I think the better answer is to find good D-league free agents.  Those are still few and far between, but have a much higher success rate.  They cost about the same tho.

In other words, I'm on team John Holland.  I wouldn't be sad if he got a chance to stick around.

[nickagneta]

But at what cost? Beat LA originally said that he thought a host of undrafted free agents were a better option than a proven role player and that the Celtics should sign the undrafted player over the proven role player, the player in this case being Sullinger. Beat LA later moved the goal posts to include the words just until after training camp, which I believe is a whole other discussion.

In a win now mode, like the Celtics are currently in, it behooves the team not to give a roster spot to an undrafted player because the sheer volume of undrafted players that try out for teams as compared to the undrafted players that can come in right away and be role players in a rotation is so small. Have some undrafted players become role players in their first year, sure, but the number is extremely small as compared to the number of undrafted free agents that have done it. And by that I mean if you are going to give three examples that span 20 years, then you have to compare it to every undrafted player that tried out for any team over that twenty year period. The percentage is miniscule.

We also aren't talking about giving a player a chance to see if he develops and can become a role player in a rotation two or three years down the line. Teams in win mode now would have to have the undrafted free agent to be better than the role player they are replacing right away in order to maximize their wins.

In the particular case of the Celtics this year, the C's don't have enough space for all their drafted players never mind undrafted free agents. Securing a roster spot for a player that goes undrafted over just retaining Sullinger on a 1+1 contract makes no sense. Hate Sully all you want but he is a serviceable and productive role player.

For that reason I think its not in the best interests of the team to hand out a guaranteed contract to an undrafted player over Sully as the chances that player will be able to contribute more to the team than Sully in that first year is ridiculously tiny.

Now what most teams do is the sign a bunch of undrafted players to tiny non-guaranteed contracts that will pay them $50,000 or so for them to play through to the end of training camp and if they make the team, it will guarantee for the rest of the year at a rookie minimum. That's smart because if any of those players outperforms the 15th player on your roster, in this case Bentil, Jackson or Young, you can just cut or trade away to a team with cap space the 15th player and add the undrafted player.

But to have hope that that undrafted player is going to be so good as to replace a player that would be in your 9 man rotation is just unrealistic. The numbers, if someone ever did that data analysis would show the likelihood of that occurring to be almost zero. If the team thought that player would be that good they would have drafted him in the first round of the draft.

[saltlover]

Yes, as I said somewhere in that thread, if I'm an agent, I wouldn't even let my player sign with the Celtics for the next couple of years without a really big guarantee in year 1.  The odds are so low that a player will even beat out the 15th man -- is just give him somewhere else where he has a chance.  The Celtics will fill their camp with Malcolm Miller types -- guys who are willing to take $15-$25k just to go to camp and be a body, and then get paid about the same for a season in the D-league.

[Beat LA]

But at what cost? Beat LA originally said that he thought a host of undrafted free agents were a better option than a proven role player and that the Celtics should sign the undrafted player over the proven role player, the player in this case being Sullinger. Beat LA later moved the goal posts to include the words just until after training camp, which I believe is a whole other discussion.

Nice try, Nick, but if anyone knows about moving the goal posts, it's definitely you . Here's what I actually said -

Ezeli to the Blazers. Interesting addition.

Any word on how much they paid? Thats what interests me.

Marc J. Spears ‏@MarcJSpearsESPN  3m3 minutes ago
Festus Ezeli's Blazers deal is actually $7.4 million the first year with a team option of $7.33 million in the second year, a source said.

Great deal with the rising cap. That's chump change for a shotblocker like Ezeli.

Great signing. Cs could have done that.

Why we didn't jump on that is beyond me. If we waived rights to Sully and Zeller, I think we would've been close to being able to do this deal while keeping Amir and JJ.

Not that I'm a fan of Zeller, Sully, Amir, or Swedish meatballs, but Ezeli blows, imo.  Dude doesn't know how to play basketball, lol . We would have been better off just signing Daniel Ochefu, imo.  Ugh.

Who the hell is Daniel Ochefu?

EDIT: Oh yeah. The guy from Villanova. He went undrafted. He doesn't have what it takes to play in the league nevermind be better than Ezeli.

The only reason I later added 'through training camp' was because that was YOUR POINT.  I was simply trying level the argument in terms of what we were discussing about bringing in undrafted free agents, although I still don't see the harm with signing a guy like Ochefu, outright.  At the end of the day, it's not going to cost that much, anyway, right saltlover?

I also take issue with this line of thinking -

That should be a strategy reserved only for the most bottom-feeder of teams, like Philly recently, or Brooklyn this year.

You guys act like sifting through undrafted free agents is somehow 'beneath us' . Give me a break.  When the Utah Jazz signed Wesley Matthews in 2009, they were hardly at the bottom of the league.  They were a playoff team, and a much better one than our current squad, I might add.  I just don't see the harm in going after guys like Ochefu, Jekiri, GP II, Sheldon McClellan, Jarrod Uthoff, and Danuel House, to name a few.  Let me ask you guys this question - would you rather give a roster spot to one of those guys, who actually work and play hard, not to mention intelligently, or James Young?  I think that's a fair point.  It's not like rookie contracts cost that much, anyway, and I'm sure that we could get any of those guys for less than that, since everyone is so cheap around here, lol .

Bottom line, every team needs talent, so who cares how you get it?  If you have to take the unconventional route, so be it, but don't act like you're above doing so and then later come to regret not even bringing in one of those guys for a workout, lol.

[saltlover]

But at what cost? Beat LA originally said that he thought a host of undrafted free agents were a better option than a proven role player and that the Celtics should sign the undrafted player over the proven role player, the player in this case being Sullinger. Beat LA later moved the goal posts to include the words just until after training camp, which I believe is a whole other discussion.

Nice try, Nick, but if anyone knows about moving the goal posts, it's definitely you . Here's what I actually said -

Ezeli to the Blazers. Interesting addition.

Any word on how much they paid? Thats what interests me.

Marc J. Spears ‏@MarcJSpearsESPN  3m3 minutes ago
Festus Ezeli's Blazers deal is actually $7.4 million the first year with a team option of $7.33 million in the second year, a source said.

Great deal with the rising cap. That's chump change for a shotblocker like Ezeli.

Great signing. Cs could have done that.

Why we didn't jump on that is beyond me. If we waived rights to Sully and Zeller, I think we would've been close to being able to do this deal while keeping Amir and JJ.

Not that I'm a fan of Zeller, Sully, Amir, or Swedish meatballs, but Ezeli blows, imo.  Dude doesn't know how to play basketball, lol . We would have been better off just signing Daniel Ochefu, imo.  Ugh.

Who the hell is Daniel Ochefu?

EDIT: Oh yeah. The guy from Villanova. He went undrafted. He doesn't have what it takes to play in the league nevermind be better than Ezeli.

The only reason I later added 'through training camp' was because that was YOUR POINT.  I was simply trying level the argument in terms of what we were discussing about bringing in undrafted free agents, although I still don't see the harm with signing a guy like Ochefu, outright.  At the end of the day, it's not going to cost that much, anyway, right saltlover?

I also take issue with this line of thinking -

That should be a strategy reserved only for the most bottom-feeder of teams, like Philly recently, or Brooklyn this year.

You guys act like sifting through undrafted free agents is somehow 'beneath us' . Give me a break.  When the Utah Jazz signed Wesley Matthews in 2009, they were hardly at the bottom of the league.  They were a playoff team, and a much better one than our current squad, I might add.  I just don't see the harm in going after guys like Ochefu, Jekiri, GP II, Sheldon McClellan, Jarrod Uthoff, and Danuel House, to name a few.  Let me ask you guys this question - would you rather give a roster spot to one of those guys, who actually work and play hard, not to mention intelligently, or James Young?  I think that's a fair point.  It's not like rookie contracts cost that much, anyway, and I'm sure that we could get any of those guys for less than that, since everyone is so cheap around here, lol .

Bottom line, every team needs talent, so who cares how you get it?  If you have to take the unconventional route, so be it, but don't act like you're above doing so and then later come to regret not even bringing in one of those guys for a workout, lol.

The hit rate on undrafted guys straight out of college is really, really low.  When you do hit, maybe you get someone who can be in the back end of your rotation on a winning team, or a starter on a bad team.  That's the jackpot in year one.

Again, maybe you'll get one of those for every 30 you sign.  I think training camp rosters are max 21z. It's really not worth it when you have, as the Celtics do, 13 players under contract, 8 unsigned draft picks, and over $9 million in cap space (if you ignore the two restricted free agents).  There is zero room to even consider an undrafted player straight out of college.  The Celtics worked out something like 150 players this year.  They've seen them all.

What does make some sense is trying to find D-leaguers who are in their mid-20s who might be more ready to help out.  The best of those players can be ready to start for a winning team. They're tough to find, but they're more immediately useful, and sometimes just as cheap.

The Celtics have 21 players under contract or draft rights held.  They have four free agents next year, and four draft picks.  Barring a major trade, there will simply be no room for these undrafted players.

I'd much rather the Celtics go to camp with John Holland types than someone immediately out of school. The NBA requires players to be more physically and mentally developed than most rookies can handle who've been drafted, let alone ones that aren't.

[Beat LA]

The hit rate on undrafted guys straight out of college is really, really low.  When you do hit, maybe you get someone who can be in the back end of your rotation on a winning team, or a starter on a bad team.  That's the jackpot in year one.

Again, maybe you'll get one of those for every 30 you sign.  I think training camp rosters are max 21z. It's really not worth it when you have, as the Celtics do, 13 players under contract, 8 unsigned draft picks, and over $9 million in cap space (if you ignore the two restricted free agents).  There is zero room to even consider an undrafted player straight out of college.  The Celtics worked out something like 150 players this year.  They've seen them all.

What does make some sense is trying to find D-leaguers who are in their mid-20s who might be more ready to help out.  The best of those players can be ready to start for a winning team. They're tough to find, but they're more immediately useful, and sometimes just as cheap.

The Celtics have 21 players under contract or draft rights held.  They have four free agents next year, and four draft picks.  Barring a major trade, there will simply be no room for these undrafted players.

I'd much rather the Celtics go to camp with John Holland types than someone immediately out of school. The NBA requires players to be more physically and mentally developed than most rookies can handle who've been drafted, let alone ones that aren't.

Why, though?  In the case of the guys I've cited, they're all seniors, so there wouldn't be a huge learning curve (at least, I don't think so, but every case is different), right?  Wouldn't you rather have someone like Danuel House as opposed to James Young?  House is taller, a much better athlete, has actual skills, lol (I saw a vine of him cross Tyler Ulis, which is no small feat, imo), a great work ethic, and despite the knock on him in previous years in terms of defense, he locked up Taurean Prince and Ben Simmons on three separate occasions, or so I've read, haha, and even shut down our very own Jaylen Brown in a workout, reportedly, so when you factor all of those components into the equation, signing House is far less of a risk than continuing to waste time and money on a guy who simply doesn't care in James Young, imo.  Does that make sense, or am I being completely unreasonable, lol, and what's the veteran's minimum, these days, btw?  Could we even sign guys like House and Ochefu to deals of such or similar amounts, or is there a whole other category regarding contracts when it comes to undrafted players, because I really have no idea.  TP for the thread, btw, saltlover, as well as for putting up with me, lol.  Sorry about that.

Oops, I forgot one thing - if we move Smart, at least House can replace his used saxophone cleaning brush-'styled' Mohawk or whatever that is, lol. #dathairdoe

[saltlover]

The hit rate on undrafted guys straight out of college is really, really low.  When you do hit, maybe you get someone who can be in the back end of your rotation on a winning team, or a starter on a bad team.  That's the jackpot in year one.

Again, maybe you'll get one of those for every 30 you sign.  I think training camp rosters are max 21z. It's really not worth it when you have, as the Celtics do, 13 players under contract, 8 unsigned draft picks, and over $9 million in cap space (if you ignore the two restricted free agents).  There is zero room to even consider an undrafted player straight out of college.  The Celtics worked out something like 150 players this year.  They've seen them all.

What does make some sense is trying to find D-leaguers who are in their mid-20s who might be more ready to help out.  The best of those players can be ready to start for a winning team. They're tough to find, but they're more immediately useful, and sometimes just as cheap.

The Celtics have 21 players under contract or draft rights held.  They have four free agents next year, and four draft picks.  Barring a major trade, there will simply be no room for these undrafted players.

I'd much rather the Celtics go to camp with John Holland types than someone immediately out of school. The NBA requires players to be more physically and mentally developed than most rookies can handle who've been drafted, let alone ones that aren't.

Why, though?  In the case of the guys I've cited, they're all seniors, so there wouldn't be a huge learning curve (at least, I don't think so, but every case is different), right?  Wouldn't you rather have someone like Danuel House as opposed to James Young?  House is taller, a much better athlete, has actual skills, lol (I saw a vine of him cross Tyler Ulis, which is no small feat, imo), a great work ethic, and despite the knock on him in previous years in terms of defense, he locked up Taurean Prince and Ben Simmons on three separate occasions, or so I've read, haha, and even shut down our very own Jaylen Brown in a workout, reportedly, so when you factor all of those components into the equation, signing House is far less of a risk than continuing to waste time and money on a guy who simply doesn't care in James Young, imo.  Does that make sense, or am I being completely unreasonable, lol, and what's the veteran's minimum, these days, btw?  Could we even sign guys like House and Ochefu to deals of such or similar amounts, or is there a whole other category regarding contracts when it comes to undrafted players, because I really have no idea.  TP for the thread, btw, saltlover, as well as for putting up with me, lol.  Sorry about that.

Oops, I forgot one thing - if we move Smart, at least House can replace his used saxophone cleaning brush-'styled' Mohawk or whatever that is, lol. #dathairdoe

I think you vastly underestimate how difficult it is to transition from college to pros.  I think it's why you get bored with James Young and Marcus Smart.  Being a senior doesn't help you adjust for how much bigger/stronger/faster everyone else is compared to your collegiate competition.  It doesn't help you adjust to 48 minute games with 24 second shot clocks and a longer 3-point line.  It doesn't help you adjust to playing in 5 different cities in 7 nights.  It doesn't help you adjust to having to learn everything through watching video, because your team has time to practice only twice in a month, and you're at the back of the bench.

If you've been in the D-league or Europe, you have a hint of some of that.  You're also still older, and a little bit more likely at the peak of your game.  If I'm looking for some guys to bring into camp, and having the open mind to potentially keep one or two of them on the team, I'm looking for D-leaguers and players who've been in Europe.  It's vogue to criticize the D-league at times, due to the ridiculous lack of defense that occurs.  But it's a lot closer to the NBA than college is.

Again, this is talking about who to give camp invites to -- D-league veterans and/or ex-collegians who've gone overseas who've shown something, or undrafted college juniors and seniors.  I don't know how much more I can reiterate this, but the NBA is REALLY DIFFICULT.  Being a pro is intense, and has a really high fail rate.  8-10 draftees a year never even make it to the NBA, and those are theoretically the top 60 prospects in a season.  Skimming below that pool is buying low-odd, low-payoff lottery tickets.  With the D-league vets in their mid-20s, you have both better odds and better payoff, because they're just more ready.

[greece66]

I thought our problem was we had more players than roster spots (?)

Let's see first what happens with Sully and Zeller and if Danny signs any FAs outside Horford.

[RockinRyA]

But at what cost? Beat LA originally said that he thought a host of undrafted free agents were a better option than a proven role player and that the Celtics should sign the undrafted player over the proven role player, the player in this case being Sullinger. Beat LA later moved the goal posts to include the words just until after training camp, which I believe is a whole other discussion.

In a win now mode, like the Celtics are currently in, it behooves the team not to give a roster spot to an undrafted player because the sheer volume of undrafted players that try out for teams as compared to the undrafted players that can come in right away and be role players in a rotation is so small. Have some undrafted players become role players in their first year, sure, but the number is extremely small as compared to the number of undrafted free agents that have done it. And by that I mean if you are going to give three examples that span 20 years, then you have to compare it to every undrafted player that tried out for any team over that twenty year period. The percentage is miniscule.

We also aren't talking about giving a player a chance to see if he develops and can become a role player in a rotation two or three years down the line. Teams in win mode now would have to have the undrafted free agent to be better than the role player they are replacing right away in order to maximize their wins.

In the particular case of the Celtics this year, the C's don't have enough space for all their drafted players never mind undrafted free agents. Securing a roster spot for a player that goes undrafted over just retaining Sullinger on a 1+1 contract makes no sense. Hate Sully all you want but he is a serviceable and productive role player.

For that reason I think its not in the best interests of the team to hand out a guaranteed contract to an undrafted player over Sully as the chances that player will be able to contribute more to the team than Sully in that first year is ridiculously tiny.

Now what most teams do is the sign a bunch of undrafted players to tiny non-guaranteed contracts that will pay them $50,000 or so for them to play through to the end of training camp and if they make the team, it will guarantee for the rest of the year at a rookie minimum. That's smart because if any of those players outperforms the 15th player on your roster, in this case Bentil, Jackson or Young, you can just cut or trade away to a team with cap space the 15th player and add the undrafted player.

But to have hope that that undrafted player is going to be so good as to replace a player that would be in your 9 man rotation is just unrealistic. The numbers, if someone ever did that data analysis would show the likelihood of that occurring to be almost zero. If the team thought that player would be that good they would have drafted him in the first round of the draft.

BEAT LA knows everything nick. Now he also knows players only workout solo, and what Brown will be 3 years from now. He also apparently knows what GMs are willing to take and the real value of each player.

[meangreenmachine]

I would like to see a list of undrafted players from the last decade who averaged 12 mpg or more in their rookie campaign. I would also like to see a list of undrafted players this decade who became serviceable starters.

[saltlover]

I would like to see a list of undrafted players from the last decade who averaged 12 mpg or more in their rookie campaign. I would also like to see a list of undrafted players this decade who became serviceable starters.

I was actually going to ask for a similar list.  What undrafted collegiate free agents made a team out of training camp, never going to the D-league or overseas first, and have never looked back (in other words weren't released or went without a contract for part or all of a season)?  How many are in at least their fourth season?  In other words, what opportunities have we missed out on? I'm not trying to be smart about it -- I honestly can't think of any players.  Maybe there are some -- it is late and I should be asleep.

[LooseCannon]

Given the Celtics' deep roster, Boston should not be a desirable destination for any undrafted free agents unless Ainge is giving them a little bit of guaranteed money with the intention of waiving them and getting them assigned to Maine.

[fairweatherfan]

I would like to see a list of undrafted players from the last decade who averaged 12 mpg or more in their rookie campaign. I would also like to see a list of undrafted players this decade who became serviceable starters.

I was actually going to ask for a similar list.  What undrafted collegiate free agents made a team out of training camp, never going to the D-league or overseas first, and have never looked back (in other words weren't released or went without a contract for part or all of a season)?  How many are in at least their fourth season?  In other words, what opportunities have we missed out on? I'm not trying to be smart about it -- I honestly can't think of any players.  Maybe there are some -- it is late and I should be asleep.

Wes Matthews, right?  Nobody else off the top of my head.

[LooseCannon]

I would like to see a list of undrafted players from the last decade who averaged 12 mpg or more in their rookie campaign. I would also like to see a list of undrafted players this decade who became serviceable starters.

I was actually going to ask for a similar list.  What undrafted collegiate free agents made a team out of training camp, never going to the D-league or overseas first, and have never looked back (in other words weren't released or went without a contract for part or all of a season)?  How many are in at least their fourth season?  In other words, what opportunities have we missed out on? I'm not trying to be smart about it -- I honestly can't think of any players.  Maybe there are some -- it is late and I should be asleep.

Hmmm, Udonis Haslem spent time in Europe and Jeremy Lin was waived after a season with Golden State, so you're looking at guys like Wesley Matthews and Anthony Morrow and Chris Andersen, I guess.

[saltlover]

I would like to see a list of undrafted players from the last decade who averaged 12 mpg or more in their rookie campaign. I would also like to see a list of undrafted players this decade who became serviceable starters.

I was actually going to ask for a similar list.  What undrafted collegiate free agents made a team out of training camp, never going to the D-league or overseas first, and have never looked back (in other words weren't released or went without a contract for part or all of a season)?  How many are in at least their fourth season?  In other words, what opportunities have we missed out on? I'm not trying to be smart about it -- I honestly can't think of any players.  Maybe there are some -- it is late and I should be asleep.

Hmmm, Udonis Haslem spent time in Europe and Jeremy Lin was waived after a season with Golden State, so you're looking at guys like Wesley Matthews and Anthony Morrow and Chris Andersen, I guess.

Andersen didn't sign directly out of training camp.  He had to wait a month or so into the season.

So in like a decade, it's been Wes Johnson and Anthony Morrow.  Two fine players, but there have been literally hundreds of undrafted free agent signings.