Let's be real: The nets had an awful offseason

[hwangjini_1]

For what it's worth, if the Nets get reasonably productive and healthy seasons from Lin, TJ, Crabbe, and Booker, by Win Shares it looks like they could expect roughly 19 Win Shares from those guys.

Lin - 5
Johnson - 4
Crabbe - 4
Booker - 6

That's a rather big if, though, considering that those guys have mostly been backups in their careers, and Johnson, at least, has had significant injury concerns.

Interesting. But could you please also balance this against the win shares lost through all the departures?  I am curious what the balance sheet says then.

[saltlover]

For what it's worth, if the Nets get reasonably productive and healthy seasons from Lin, TJ, Crabbe, and Booker, by Win Shares it looks like they could expect roughly 19 Win Shares from those guys.

Lin - 5
Johnson - 4
Crabbe - 4
Booker - 6

That's a rather big if, though, considering that those guys have mostly been backups in their careers, and Johnson, at least, has had significant injury concerns.

Interesting. But could you please also balance this against the win shares lost through all the departures?  I am curious what the balance sheet says then.

Alternatively, you could look at 538's CARMELO projection system.  They have it as follows for the upcoming season:

Booker - 3 wins
Crabbe - 2 wins
Johnson - 1 win
Lin - 1 win

They also have Young as worth 3 wins.  So that's a net of 4 wins, if they get to keep Johnson and Crabbe.

For comparison's sake, Al Horford is worth 9 wins by himself. 

[mef730]

They got Lin, Justin Hamilton, Trevor Booker, Tyler Johnson (in principle Heat can still match), and Crabbe (in principle Portland can still match).

I'm quite pleased with that: rosterwise, as things are now, they sure look bottom 5 - one could even make the case that even LAL is better than them right now.

All in all, barring a big surprise they will be a lottery team, hopefully a bottom 5 one.

Crabbe's the one I'm worried about and I don't see how Portland matches. I think he'll be playing for BKN.

I agree that roster wise, this is a bottom-3 team. Our biggest risk is an injury to Davis or Cousins, which puts their teams in tank-worthy positions. In an injury-free world, this should be a very good season.

Mike

Remember tho that Sac swaps picks with Philly if they wind up with a better pick than the ex-Hinkies.  So their incentive to tank is lessened.

And a TP for remembering.

How's life with baby?

Mike

[Moranis]

So Miami matched as well leaving the Nets with 35 million in cap space and a bunch of holes to fill.  There are still some quality free agents left, including another restricted free agent from Portland in Harkless.  Sullinger, Terrence Jones and Motiejunas (restricted), Zeller, Waiters (restricted), Alan Anderson, and even a guy like Bass would help them out.   They could piece together some respectable players out of that group, but obviously it is a big blow for them.  Sullinger actually makes a great deal of sense next to Lopez.  They would get killed defensively, but would pose some interesting match-up problems for opposing teams on the offensive end. 

[Beat LA]

They got Lin, Justin Hamilton, Trevor Booker, Tyler Johnson (in principle Heat can still match), and Crabbe (in principle Portland can still match).

I'm quite pleased with that: rosterwise, as things are now, they sure look bottom 5 - one could even make the case that even LAL is better than them right now.

All in all, barring a big surprise they will be a lottery team, hopefully a bottom 5 one.

Crabbe's the one I'm worried about and I don't see how Portland matches. I think he'll be playing for BKN.

I agree that roster wise, this is a bottom-3 team. Our biggest risk is an injury to Davis or Cousins, which puts their teams in tank-worthy positions. In an injury-free world, this should be a very good season.

Mike

Remember tho that Sac swaps picks with Philly if they wind up with a better pick than the ex-Hinkies.  So their incentive to tank is lessened.

And a TP for remembering.

How's life with baby?

Mike

Hopefully, saltlover didn't put baby in a corner . Lol, I'm just messing around, here.

[saltlover]

They got Lin, Justin Hamilton, Trevor Booker, Tyler Johnson (in principle Heat can still match), and Crabbe (in principle Portland can still match).

I'm quite pleased with that: rosterwise, as things are now, they sure look bottom 5 - one could even make the case that even LAL is better than them right now.

All in all, barring a big surprise they will be a lottery team, hopefully a bottom 5 one.

Crabbe's the one I'm worried about and I don't see how Portland matches. I think he'll be playing for BKN.

I agree that roster wise, this is a bottom-3 team. Our biggest risk is an injury to Davis or Cousins, which puts their teams in tank-worthy positions. In an injury-free world, this should be a very good season.

Mike

Remember tho that Sac swaps picks with Philly if they wind up with a better pick than the ex-Hinkies.  So their incentive to tank is lessened.

And a TP for remembering.

How's life with baby?

Mike

It means I post at odd times on Celticsblog, but it's great!

[saltlover]

For what it's worth, if the Nets get reasonably productive and healthy seasons from Lin, TJ, Crabbe, and Booker, by Win Shares it looks like they could expect roughly 19 Win Shares from those guys.

Lin - 5
Johnson - 4
Crabbe - 4
Booker - 6

That's a rather big if, though, considering that those guys have mostly been backups in their careers, and Johnson, at least, has had significant injury concerns.

Interesting. But could you please also balance this against the win shares lost through all the departures?  I am curious what the balance sheet says then.

Alternatively, you could look at 538's CARMELO projection system.  They have it as follows for the upcoming season:

Booker - 3 wins
Crabbe - 2 wins
Johnson - 1 win
Lin - 1 win

They also have Young as worth 3 wins.  So that's a net of 4 wins, if they get to keep Johnson and Crabbe.

For comparison's sake, Al Horford is worth 9 wins by himself.

Rough day for the Nets according to 538's player projections.  Not only did they lose out on Johnson and Crabbe, they replaced them with Vasquez.

The updated list of major ins and outs:

IN:

Booker: 3.1 wins
Lin: 1.0 wins
Hamilton: 0.0 wins
Vasquez: -1.2 wins

OUT:
Young: 2.8 wins

NET: 0.1 wins added. 

[saltlover]

For what it's worth, if the Nets get reasonably productive and healthy seasons from Lin, TJ, Crabbe, and Booker, by Win Shares it looks like they could expect roughly 19 Win Shares from those guys.

Lin - 5
Johnson - 4
Crabbe - 4
Booker - 6

That's a rather big if, though, considering that those guys have mostly been backups in their careers, and Johnson, at least, has had significant injury concerns.

Interesting. But could you please also balance this against the win shares lost through all the departures?  I am curious what the balance sheet says then.

Alternatively, you could look at 538's CARMELO projection system.  They have it as follows for the upcoming season:

Booker - 3 wins
Crabbe - 2 wins
Johnson - 1 win
Lin - 1 win

They also have Young as worth 3 wins.  So that's a net of 4 wins, if they get to keep Johnson and Crabbe.

For comparison's sake, Al Horford is worth 9 wins by himself.

Rough day for the Nets according to 538's player projections.  Not only did they lose out on Johnson and Crabbe, they replaced them with Vasquez.

The updated list of major ins and outs:

IN:

Booker: 3.1 wins
Lin: 1.0 wins
Hamilton: 0.0 wins
Vasquez: -1.2 wins

OUT:
Young: 2.8 wins

NET: 0.1 wins added.

EDIT:  538 tricked me and called last year the 2016 season instead of the 2015 season. Ooops.  That's the net based on last year's actual numbers.  This year's projections look like so:

IN:

Booker: 2.8 wins
Lin: 0.9 wins
Vasquez: -0.4 wins
Hamilton: 0.4 wins

OUT:
Young: 2.3 wins

NET:
1.4 wins -- that's still nothing to write home about.  The Nets have largely treaded water, and there is no reason to expect any significant improvement in win total.  In fact, 538 expects a decline in Lopez' game by 1.4 wins, eating away all the net gains in free agency.

[celticsclay]

For what it's worth, if the Nets get reasonably productive and healthy seasons from Lin, TJ, Crabbe, and Booker, by Win Shares it looks like they could expect roughly 19 Win Shares from those guys.

Lin - 5
Johnson - 4
Crabbe - 4
Booker - 6

That's a rather big if, though, considering that those guys have mostly been backups in their careers, and Johnson, at least, has had significant injury concerns.

Interesting. But could you please also balance this against the win shares lost through all the departures?  I am curious what the balance sheet says then.

Alternatively, you could look at 538's CARMELO projection system.  They have it as follows for the upcoming season:

Booker - 3 wins
Crabbe - 2 wins
Johnson - 1 win
Lin - 1 win

They also have Young as worth 3 wins.  So that's a net of 4 wins, if they get to keep Johnson and Crabbe.

For comparison's sake, Al Horford is worth 9 wins by himself.

Rough day for the Nets according to 538's player projections.  Not only did they lose out on Johnson and Crabbe, they replaced them with Vasquez.

The updated list of major ins and outs:

IN:

Booker: 3.1 wins
Lin: 1.0 wins
Hamilton: 0.0 wins
Vasquez: -1.2 wins

OUT:
Young: 2.8 wins

NET: 0.1 wins added.

EDIT:  538 tricked me and called last year the 2016 season instead of the 2015 season. Ooops.  That's the net based on last year's actual numbers.  This year's projections look like so:

IN:

Booker: 2.8 wins
Lin: 0.9 wins
Vasquez: -0.4 wins
Hamilton: 0.4 wins

OUT:
Young: 2.3 wins

NET:
1.4 wins -- that's still nothing to write home about.  The Nets have largely treaded water, and there is no reason to expect any significant improvement in win total.  In fact, 538 expects a decline in Lopez' game by 1.4 wins, eating away all the net gains in free agency.

With no crabbe and no johnson, did they have the worst free agency of any team?

http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/16964330/brooklyn-nets-left-empty-handed-losing-allen-crabbe-portland-trail-blazers-tyler-johnson-miami-heat

[jpotter33]

For what it's worth, if the Nets get reasonably productive and healthy seasons from Lin, TJ, Crabbe, and Booker, by Win Shares it looks like they could expect roughly 19 Win Shares from those guys.

Lin - 5
Johnson - 4
Crabbe - 4
Booker - 6

That's a rather big if, though, considering that those guys have mostly been backups in their careers, and Johnson, at least, has had significant injury concerns.

Interesting. But could you please also balance this against the win shares lost through all the departures?  I am curious what the balance sheet says then.

Alternatively, you could look at 538's CARMELO projection system.  They have it as follows for the upcoming season:

Booker - 3 wins
Crabbe - 2 wins
Johnson - 1 win
Lin - 1 win

They also have Young as worth 3 wins.  So that's a net of 4 wins, if they get to keep Johnson and Crabbe.

For comparison's sake, Al Horford is worth 9 wins by himself.

Rough day for the Nets according to 538's player projections.  Not only did they lose out on Johnson and Crabbe, they replaced them with Vasquez.

The updated list of major ins and outs:

IN:

Booker: 3.1 wins
Lin: 1.0 wins
Hamilton: 0.0 wins
Vasquez: -1.2 wins

OUT:
Young: 2.8 wins

NET: 0.1 wins added.

EDIT:  538 tricked me and called last year the 2016 season instead of the 2015 season. Ooops.  That's the net based on last year's actual numbers.  This year's projections look like so:

IN:

Booker: 2.8 wins
Lin: 0.9 wins
Vasquez: -0.4 wins
Hamilton: 0.4 wins

OUT:
Young: 2.3 wins

NET:
1.4 wins -- that's still nothing to write home about.  The Nets have largely treaded water, and there is no reason to expect any significant improvement in win total.  In fact, 538 expects a decline in Lopez' game by 1.4 wins, eating away all the net gains in free agency.

I am highly suspicious of this statistical analysis. In what world is Trevor freaking Booker worth three times as many "wins" as Lin and more wins than Young? I like Booker, but isn't he essentially just a garbage guy?

[max215]

For what it's worth, if the Nets get reasonably productive and healthy seasons from Lin, TJ, Crabbe, and Booker, by Win Shares it looks like they could expect roughly 19 Win Shares from those guys.

Lin - 5
Johnson - 4
Crabbe - 4
Booker - 6

That's a rather big if, though, considering that those guys have mostly been backups in their careers, and Johnson, at least, has had significant injury concerns.

Interesting. But could you please also balance this against the win shares lost through all the departures?  I am curious what the balance sheet says then.

Alternatively, you could look at 538's CARMELO projection system.  They have it as follows for the upcoming season:

Booker - 3 wins
Crabbe - 2 wins
Johnson - 1 win
Lin - 1 win

They also have Young as worth 3 wins.  So that's a net of 4 wins, if they get to keep Johnson and Crabbe.

For comparison's sake, Al Horford is worth 9 wins by himself.

Rough day for the Nets according to 538's player projections.  Not only did they lose out on Johnson and Crabbe, they replaced them with Vasquez.

The updated list of major ins and outs:

IN:

Booker: 3.1 wins
Lin: 1.0 wins
Hamilton: 0.0 wins
Vasquez: -1.2 wins

OUT:
Young: 2.8 wins

NET: 0.1 wins added.

EDIT:  538 tricked me and called last year the 2016 season instead of the 2015 season. Ooops.  That's the net based on last year's actual numbers.  This year's projections look like so:

IN:

Booker: 2.8 wins
Lin: 0.9 wins
Vasquez: -0.4 wins
Hamilton: 0.4 wins

OUT:
Young: 2.3 wins

NET:
1.4 wins -- that's still nothing to write home about.  The Nets have largely treaded water, and there is no reason to expect any significant improvement in win total.  In fact, 538 expects a decline in Lopez' game by 1.4 wins, eating away all the net gains in free agency.

With no crabbe and no johnson, did they have the worst free agency of any team?

http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/16964330/brooklyn-nets-left-empty-handed-losing-allen-crabbe-portland-trail-blazers-tyler-johnson-miami-heat

They didn't make any crippling moves, but they probably lost more talent than they gained. We lucked out; they're going to be terrible, maybe the worst team in the league. Jackson and Giles 

[saltlover]

For what it's worth, if the Nets get reasonably productive and healthy seasons from Lin, TJ, Crabbe, and Booker, by Win Shares it looks like they could expect roughly 19 Win Shares from those guys.

Lin - 5
Johnson - 4
Crabbe - 4
Booker - 6

That's a rather big if, though, considering that those guys have mostly been backups in their careers, and Johnson, at least, has had significant injury concerns.

Interesting. But could you please also balance this against the win shares lost through all the departures?  I am curious what the balance sheet says then.

Alternatively, you could look at 538's CARMELO projection system.  They have it as follows for the upcoming season:

Booker - 3 wins
Crabbe - 2 wins
Johnson - 1 win
Lin - 1 win

They also have Young as worth 3 wins.  So that's a net of 4 wins, if they get to keep Johnson and Crabbe.

For comparison's sake, Al Horford is worth 9 wins by himself.

Rough day for the Nets according to 538's player projections.  Not only did they lose out on Johnson and Crabbe, they replaced them with Vasquez.

The updated list of major ins and outs:

IN:

Booker: 3.1 wins
Lin: 1.0 wins
Hamilton: 0.0 wins
Vasquez: -1.2 wins

OUT:
Young: 2.8 wins

NET: 0.1 wins added.

EDIT:  538 tricked me and called last year the 2016 season instead of the 2015 season. Ooops.  That's the net based on last year's actual numbers.  This year's projections look like so:

IN:

Booker: 2.8 wins
Lin: 0.9 wins
Vasquez: -0.4 wins
Hamilton: 0.4 wins

OUT:
Young: 2.3 wins

NET:
1.4 wins -- that's still nothing to write home about.  The Nets have largely treaded water, and there is no reason to expect any significant improvement in win total.  In fact, 538 expects a decline in Lopez' game by 1.4 wins, eating away all the net gains in free agency.

I am highly suspicious of this statistical analysis. In what world is Trevor freaking Booker worth three times as many "wins" as Lin and more wins than Young? I like Booker, but isn't he essentially just a garbage guy?

In addition to having a higher WARP, which is what 538 uses, he had last year a higher PER, VORP, BPM, and Win Shares.  Granted, I think this says as much about Lin as it does Booker, but when five different total player metrics all say something similar, I'll go with it.

As far as Young is concerned, he won in the PER stat, but Booker won in every other stat.  So it's not unreasonable.

[jpotter33]

Nets just lost out on Sullinger, too. It's hard to see then completing any move now that would take them out of a bottom three team right now.

[TwinTower14]

Nets just lost out on Sullinger, too. It's hard to see then completing any move now that would take them out of a bottom three team right now.

I think when you say bottom three you mean bottom one.

[jpotter33]

Nets just lost out on Sullinger, too. It's hard to see then completing any move now that would take them out of a bottom three team right now.

I think when you say bottom three you mean bottom one.

I myself do, but others on here aren't as convinced that Philly and LA will be better than them still. So I went conservative with the estimate.