FiveThirtyEight's CARMELO NBA Projections - July 7, 2016 Update

[BudweiserCeltic]

Updated CARMELO projections are out:

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/carmelo/


Have fun!

[droopdog7]

To be fair, it just seems to regress everyone to the mean:

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/carmelo/lebron-james/

[alldaboston]

Here comes the Marcus Smart bashing and how he will never be a Future All Star

[Granath]

If I'm reading this right from last year (and I may not - the way the data is presented is unclear but I'm flipping back and forth between last year's projections and this year's):

Thomas Projection: 4
Thomas Actual: 7.3

Bradley Projection: 1.8
Bradley Actual: 3.1

Crowder Projection: 1.9
Crowder Actual: 6.1

Yeah...so if this misses that badly on our top 3 players from last year then I'm not likely to give it much consideration this year.

[BudweiserCeltic]

If I'm reading this right from last year (and I may not - the way the data is presented is unclear but I'm flipping back and forth between last year's projections and this year's):

Thomas Projection: 4
Thomas Actual: 7.3

Bradley Projection: 1.8
Bradley Actual: 3.1

Crowder Projection: 1.9
Crowder Actual: 6.1

Yeah...so if this misses that badly on our top 3 players from last year then I'm not likely to give it much consideration this year.

Have to worry about them being outlier seasons, and coming back down. Hope not.

[nickagneta]

5 of the 10 players Al Horford is compared to are HOFers. Take that for what it is worth

[The Oracle]

LOL Smart vs Bradley.  Smart's 5 year value 156.5 million, Bradley's 35.9 million.  While I agree that there is no comparison in their on court value that does seem a little extreme.

[A Future of Stevens]

You should look up Okafor's Carmelo projections. His comparisons do not paint a bright picture lol.

[The Oracle]

You should look up Okafor's Carmelo projections. His comparisons do not paint a bright picture lol.

They shouldn't!!  I completely agree the last thing you want on the floor in today's NBA is a post scoring big that is weak defensively.

[Granath]

If I'm reading this right from last year (and I may not - the way the data is presented is unclear but I'm flipping back and forth between last year's projections and this year's):

Thomas Projection: 4
Thomas Actual: 7.3

Bradley Projection: 1.8
Bradley Actual: 3.1

Crowder Projection: 1.9
Crowder Actual: 6.1

Yeah...so if this misses that badly on our top 3 players from last year then I'm not likely to give it much consideration this year.

Have to worry about them being outlier seasons, and coming back down. Hope not.

Or more likely CARMELO is trying to use year-to-year averages and trends to predict without taking into account when a player has greatly different circumstances.

I'm quite the fan of fivethrityeight but I'm not sold on the predictive abilities of this model yet.

[A Future of Stevens]

You should look up Okafor's Carmelo projections. His comparisons do not paint a bright picture lol.

They shouldn't!!  I completely agree the last thing you want on the floor in today's NBA is a post scoring big that is weak defensively.

Although some of the less compatible players are all great offensively (cousins, dirk) lol.

[celticsclay]

You should look up Okafor's Carmelo projections. His comparisons do not paint a bright picture lol.

They shouldn't!!  I completely agree the last thing you want on the floor in today's NBA is a post scoring big that is weak defensively.

Although some of the less compatible players are all great offensively (cousins, dirk) lol.

wow advanced stats hate okafor

[The Oracle]

5 year value projections.

Thomas   100 million
Smart     156.5
Crowder  100.5
Horford    105.1
Johnson    61.8
Olynyk      78.6
Sullinger   95.5
Turner       23.8
Bradley     35.9
Jerebko      4.0
Zeller         3.2
Lee            9.5
Rozier        1.6
Simmons  198.1
Ingram      92.4
Brown       16.2

[max215]

These were fun last year, and they still are this year, but I'm dubious as to the actual predictive value of the model.

[loco_91]

LOL Smart vs Bradley.  Smart's 5 year value 156.5 million, Bradley's 35.9 million.  While I agree that there is no comparison in their on court value that does seem a little extreme.

It's projecting improvement for Smart. But yeah, this is a little ridiculous.

I'm very happy the model still likes Smart after his worse-than-expected season, but it's hard to know how seriously we should take it without any measure of historical performance.