Author Topic: Brown had highest bust percentage (38%) of any player in the top 18  (Read 8570 times)

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Offline LarBrd33

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Pretty good article from a few days ago weighing the pros and cons of Boston drafting Jaylen Brown:  http://espn.go.com/blog/boston/celtics/post/_/id/4723335/not-the-model-choice-would-celtics-roll-dice-with-jaylen-brown

Tons of red flags, but he had great workouts and might have a high ceiling despite the fact that "multiple computer models suggest Brown will struggle to make an impact at the next level."

Basically, if you're a stat head, everything points to him being a bust.  But there's raw athleticism there.

Re: Brown had highest bust percentage (38%) of any player in the top 18
« Reply #1 on: June 24, 2016, 12:11:31 AM »

Online DefenseWinsChamps

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Pretty good article from a few days ago weighing the pros and cons of Boston drafting Jaylen Brown:  http://espn.go.com/blog/boston/celtics/post/_/id/4723335/not-the-model-choice-would-celtics-roll-dice-with-jaylen-brown

Tons of red flags, but he had great workouts and might have a high ceiling despite the fact that "multiple computer models suggest Brown will struggle to make an impact at the next level."

That same projection model has Ben Simmons as the second highest potential. The model is broken.

The model does not allow for pace or coaching, which were significant restrictions to Brown's game.

I wanted us to take Bender. I'm just playing devil's advocate.

Re: Brown had highest bust percentage (38%) of any player in the top 18
« Reply #2 on: June 24, 2016, 12:11:41 AM »

Offline tarheelsxxiii

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It's just Ainge being cute. This is becoming an issue with him.
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Re: Brown had highest bust percentage (38%) of any player in the top 18
« Reply #3 on: June 24, 2016, 12:13:14 AM »

Offline LarBrd33

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Pretty good article from a few days ago weighing the pros and cons of Boston drafting Jaylen Brown:  http://espn.go.com/blog/boston/celtics/post/_/id/4723335/not-the-model-choice-would-celtics-roll-dice-with-jaylen-brown

Tons of red flags, but he had great workouts and might have a high ceiling despite the fact that "multiple computer models suggest Brown will struggle to make an impact at the next level."

That same projection model has Ben Simmons as the second highest potential. The model is broken.
Read the article.  Wasn't just one model.  It was multiple different models all that suggested he'll be a poor NBA player.  It was an article about Boston potentially drafting him in spite of several computer models advising against it.

The positive is that he's got an NBA body at age 19 and has a high work ethic.  Article suggests he could be Stanley Johnson without an ability to make shots.

Re: Brown had highest bust percentage (38%) of any player in the top 18
« Reply #4 on: June 24, 2016, 12:14:48 AM »

Offline Chris22

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What team did the computer play for?

Re: Brown had highest bust percentage (38%) of any player in the top 18
« Reply #5 on: June 24, 2016, 12:14:49 AM »

Offline PhoSita

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Looks like every pick in this draft was in some respect a swing for the fences.

In that way, I like it.

But I'm also not confident any of these guys will end up playing very much for the Celtics.
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Re: Brown had highest bust percentage (38%) of any player in the top 18
« Reply #6 on: June 24, 2016, 12:16:43 AM »

Offline jpotter33

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Derrick Williams 2.0. I really hope I'm wrong and he turns out more like Stanley Johnson, which I'd be absolutely thrilled with.
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Re: Brown had highest bust percentage (38%) of any player in the top 18
« Reply #7 on: June 24, 2016, 12:18:04 AM »

Offline Kane3387

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Pretty good article from a few days ago weighing the pros and cons of Boston drafting Jaylen Brown:  http://espn.go.com/blog/boston/celtics/post/_/id/4723335/not-the-model-choice-would-celtics-roll-dice-with-jaylen-brown

Tons of red flags, but he had great workouts and might have a high ceiling despite the fact that "multiple computer models suggest Brown will struggle to make an impact at the next level."

Basically, if you're a stat head, everything points to him being a bust.  But there's raw athleticism there.

Interesting considering how analytical the Celtics are


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Re: Brown had highest bust percentage (38%) of any player in the top 18
« Reply #8 on: June 24, 2016, 12:19:30 AM »

Offline LarBrd33

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Pretty good article from a few days ago weighing the pros and cons of Boston drafting Jaylen Brown:  http://espn.go.com/blog/boston/celtics/post/_/id/4723335/not-the-model-choice-would-celtics-roll-dice-with-jaylen-brown

Tons of red flags, but he had great workouts and might have a high ceiling despite the fact that "multiple computer models suggest Brown will struggle to make an impact at the next level."

Basically, if you're a stat head, everything points to him being a bust.  But there's raw athleticism there.

Interesting considering how analytical the Celtics are
Welp... have we successfully drafted any stars using advanced stats and computer models?  Our last major pick, Marcus Smart, looks like a long-term role player.  Maybe they decided to just take a guy based on the eye test this time. 

Re: Brown had highest bust percentage (38%) of any player in the top 18
« Reply #9 on: June 24, 2016, 12:22:21 AM »

Offline trickybilly

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Does he start? Chowder probably throws a chair at someone..
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Re: Brown had highest bust percentage (38%) of any player in the top 18
« Reply #10 on: June 24, 2016, 12:25:39 AM »

Offline D Dub

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It's just Ainge being cute. This is becoming an issue with him.

I'm pretty sure this was Brad's choice more so than Ainge. 

Wasn't it was Brad who told him how well he'd fit with us when he worked out?

For those that have great respect for Brad, you should be pleased that Ainge puts this much trust in his eye.    Goes a long way, having a leader trust the troops like that. 

Now hopefully Jaylen delivers.   I'm sure he's reading all this crap tonight with eyes wide open...

Re: Brown had highest bust percentage (38%) of any player in the top 18
« Reply #11 on: June 24, 2016, 12:26:40 AM »

Offline passesofftodj

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I would be shocked if Brown were anything but a journeyman role player.  His mold is the type that usually busts.  Barring injury Dunn will be a STAR, or could have possibly netted Butler.  This is worse than passing on Draymond, which was obvious to anyone watching actual GAMES instead of useless workouts and character assessments.

Re: Brown had highest bust percentage (38%) of any player in the top 18
« Reply #12 on: June 24, 2016, 12:27:27 AM »

Offline Robb

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Jesus help me if we took a player third overall whose best case scenario is Stanley Johnson.
We're the ones we've been waiting for.

Re: Brown had highest bust percentage (38%) of any player in the top 18
« Reply #13 on: June 24, 2016, 12:27:53 AM »

Offline fubar089

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so are the Nets making the playoffs next year?

Re: Brown had highest bust percentage (38%) of any player in the top 18
« Reply #14 on: June 24, 2016, 12:28:18 AM »

Offline alldaboston

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It's just Ainge being cute. This is becoming an issue with him.

I'm pretty sure this was Brad's choice more so than Ainge. 

Wasn't it was Brad who told him how well he'd fit with us when he worked out?

For those that have great respect for Brad, you should be pleased that Ainge puts this much trust in his eye.    Goes a long way, having a leader trust the troops like that. 

Now hopefully Jaylen delivers.   I'm sure he's reading all this crap tonight with eyes wide open...

He IS a nerd of sorts. Maybe he really is reading all this
I could very well see the Hawks... starting Taurean Prince at the 3, who is already better than Crowder, imo.

you vs. the guy she tells you not to worry about