The Official 2016-2017 Brooklyn Nets Season Watch Thread (20-62, #1)

[clevelandceltic]

Here's some perspective on the numbers:

The Nets have played .200 ball to date. Suppose they improve to .333 for the rest of the way, which is a substantial change. They'd end up 21-61.

To "catch" them, the Lakers would need to go 5-28, which is .150 ball, and they've played .327 ball to date.

So basically, this is very, very unlikely to happen.

Now, keep in mind that even if this low-probability event happens, all it does is reduce our chances at the #1 pick from 25% to 20%, and for a top 3 pick from 64% to 56%.

Just to put some numbers on things, if you think there's a 10% chance that someone else catches the Nets, then our probabilities of getting picks are:

#1 pick: 24.5%
Top 3: 63.4%

Whereas if the season ended today, they would be:

#1 pick: 25%
Top 3: 64.3%

The upshot: for all practical purposes, our odds of getting the #1 pick are pretty close to what they'd be if the season ended today, even looking out to the end of the season and allowing for a sensible chance that someone catches BKN.

Not totally out of the realm of possibility, given that they went 6-23 after a 10-10 start. But yes, I am cherry picking my numbers and time frame.

Mike

Nice work. I will say that it will be hard for the Nets to catch the Lakers considering the Lakers have a 7 game cushion in the win column. Lakers have played 49 games with 33 to go. Even winning 4 of those games puts a ton of pressure on the Nets.

Here is another little nugget. Everyone should be rooting for the Lakers to win as much as possible and heres why. Everyone knows that the Lakers have to give up their pick to the Sixers if its not top 3. What is rarely discussed is the fact that they also owe the Magic a 1st rd pick. If the Lakers keep their pick this year then the 2019 pick they owe becomes 2nd rds. If they lose the pick to the Sixers this year they also lose a 1st in 19.

So all in all everyone should should root for them to win games to not give Philly a good pick but also it wouldnt allow them to keep their 19 pick either.

[jpotter33]

Here's some perspective on the numbers:

The Nets have played .200 ball to date. Suppose they improve to .333 for the rest of the way, which is a substantial change. They'd end up 21-61.

To "catch" them, the Lakers would need to go 5-28, which is .150 ball, and they've played .327 ball to date.

So basically, this is very, very unlikely to happen.

Now, keep in mind that even if this low-probability event happens, all it does is reduce our chances at the #1 pick from 25% to 20%, and for a top 3 pick from 64% to 56%.

Just to put some numbers on things, if you think there's a 10% chance that someone else catches the Nets, then our probabilities of getting picks are:

#1 pick: 24.5%
Top 3: 63.4%

Whereas if the season ended today, they would be:

#1 pick: 25%
Top 3: 64.3%

The upshot: for all practical purposes, our odds of getting the #1 pick are pretty close to what they'd be if the season ended today, even looking out to the end of the season and allowing for a sensible chance that someone catches BKN.

Not totally out of the realm of possibility, given that they went 6-23 after a 10-10 start. But yes, I am cherry picking my numbers and time frame.

Mike

Nice work. I will say that it will be hard for the Nets to catch the Lakers considering the Lakers have a 7 game cushion in the win column. Lakers have played 49 games with 33 to go. Even winning 4 of those games puts a ton of pressure on the Nets.

Here is another little nugget. Everyone should be rooting for the Lakers to win as much as possible and heres why. Everyone knows that the Lakers have to give up their pick to the Sixers if its not top 3. What is rarely discussed is the fact that they also owe the Magic a 1st rd pick. If the Lakers keep their pick this year then the 2019 pick they owe becomes 2nd rds. If they lose the pick to the Sixers this year they also lose a 1st in 19.

So all in all everyone should should root for them to win games to not give Philly a good pick but also it wouldnt allow them to keep their 19 pick either.

No, we should be hoping for them to lose as much as possible and stay in the bottom two (but not below the Nets!). I'd much rather the Lakers get a top pick this draft that is guard-heavy than the Sixers, who could very well project to be a dominant force with another franchise-level player to add to the mix.

However, with their current winning streak and some luck from the Lakers staying in the top 3, they could ultimately only have a mid lottery pick in this draft, which would slow them down a bit in their development without any real rotation level guards on their roster.

[clevelandceltic]

Here's some perspective on the numbers:

The Nets have played .200 ball to date. Suppose they improve to .333 for the rest of the way, which is a substantial change. They'd end up 21-61.

To "catch" them, the Lakers would need to go 5-28, which is .150 ball, and they've played .327 ball to date.

So basically, this is very, very unlikely to happen.

Now, keep in mind that even if this low-probability event happens, all it does is reduce our chances at the #1 pick from 25% to 20%, and for a top 3 pick from 64% to 56%.

Just to put some numbers on things, if you think there's a 10% chance that someone else catches the Nets, then our probabilities of getting picks are:

#1 pick: 24.5%
Top 3: 63.4%

Whereas if the season ended today, they would be:

#1 pick: 25%
Top 3: 64.3%

The upshot: for all practical purposes, our odds of getting the #1 pick are pretty close to what they'd be if the season ended today, even looking out to the end of the season and allowing for a sensible chance that someone catches BKN.

Not totally out of the realm of possibility, given that they went 6-23 after a 10-10 start. But yes, I am cherry picking my numbers and time frame.

Mike

Nice work. I will say that it will be hard for the Nets to catch the Lakers considering the Lakers have a 7 game cushion in the win column. Lakers have played 49 games with 33 to go. Even winning 4 of those games puts a ton of pressure on the Nets.

Here is another little nugget. Everyone should be rooting for the Lakers to win as much as possible and heres why. Everyone knows that the Lakers have to give up their pick to the Sixers if its not top 3. What is rarely discussed is the fact that they also owe the Magic a 1st rd pick. If the Lakers keep their pick this year then the 2019 pick they owe becomes 2nd rds. If they lose the pick to the Sixers this year they also lose a 1st in 19.

So all in all everyone should should root for them to win games to not give Philly a good pick but also it wouldnt allow them to keep their 19 pick either.

No, we should be hoping for them to lose as much as possible and stay in the bottom two (but not below the Nets!). I'd much rather the Lakers get a top pick this draft that is guard-heavy than the Sixers, who could very well project to be a dominant force with another franchise-level player to add to the mix.

However, with their current winning streak and some luck from the Lakers staying in the top 3, they could ultimately only have a mid lottery pick in this draft, which would slow them down a bit in their development without any real rotation level guards on their roster.

I dont understand this at all. If the Lakers finished 6th and gave the pick up to the Sixers and they lose their 19 1st rd pick why would you be in favor of them keeping the pick and getting a top player?

[Ilikesports17]

Here's some perspective on the numbers:

The Nets have played .200 ball to date. Suppose they improve to .333 for the rest of the way, which is a substantial change. They'd end up 21-61.

To "catch" them, the Lakers would need to go 5-28, which is .150 ball, and they've played .327 ball to date.

So basically, this is very, very unlikely to happen.

Now, keep in mind that even if this low-probability event happens, all it does is reduce our chances at the #1 pick from 25% to 20%, and for a top 3 pick from 64% to 56%.

Just to put some numbers on things, if you think there's a 10% chance that someone else catches the Nets, then our probabilities of getting picks are:

#1 pick: 24.5%
Top 3: 63.4%

Whereas if the season ended today, they would be:

#1 pick: 25%
Top 3: 64.3%

The upshot: for all practical purposes, our odds of getting the #1 pick are pretty close to what they'd be if the season ended today, even looking out to the end of the season and allowing for a sensible chance that someone catches BKN.

Not totally out of the realm of possibility, given that they went 6-23 after a 10-10 start. But yes, I am cherry picking my numbers and time frame.

Mike

Nice work. I will say that it will be hard for the Nets to catch the Lakers considering the Lakers have a 7 game cushion in the win column. Lakers have played 49 games with 33 to go. Even winning 4 of those games puts a ton of pressure on the Nets.

Here is another little nugget. Everyone should be rooting for the Lakers to win as much as possible and heres why. Everyone knows that the Lakers have to give up their pick to the Sixers if its not top 3. What is rarely discussed is the fact that they also owe the Magic a 1st rd pick. If the Lakers keep their pick this year then the 2019 pick they owe becomes 2nd rds. If they lose the pick to the Sixers this year they also lose a 1st in 19.

So all in all everyone should should root for them to win games to not give Philly a good pick but also it wouldnt allow them to keep their 19 pick either.

No, we should be hoping for them to lose as much as possible and stay in the bottom two (but not below the Nets!). I'd much rather the Lakers get a top pick this draft that is guard-heavy than the Sixers, who could very well project to be a dominant force with another franchise-level player to add to the mix.

However, with their current winning streak and some luck from the Lakers staying in the top 3, they could ultimately only have a mid lottery pick in this draft, which would slow them down a bit in their development without any real rotation level guards on their roster.

I dont understand this at all. If the Lakers finished 6th and gave the pick up to the Sixers and they lose their 19 1st rd pick why would you be in favor of them keeping the pick and getting a top player?

The Sixers core frightens me more than LAs does. Id rather see the Lakers get a top 3 pick then see Philly get a 3-6 range pick.

[jambr380]

I absolutely do not want to see the Lakers get an undeserved top pick in this draft and KEEP their '19 pick. Being scared of future Philly is reasonable, but this is the freakin' Lakers we are taking about and we just can't let them pass us in championships. This is like the most important thing in the NBA world.

[jpotter33]

Here's some perspective on the numbers:

The Nets have played .200 ball to date. Suppose they improve to .333 for the rest of the way, which is a substantial change. They'd end up 21-61.

To "catch" them, the Lakers would need to go 5-28, which is .150 ball, and they've played .327 ball to date.

So basically, this is very, very unlikely to happen.

Now, keep in mind that even if this low-probability event happens, all it does is reduce our chances at the #1 pick from 25% to 20%, and for a top 3 pick from 64% to 56%.

Just to put some numbers on things, if you think there's a 10% chance that someone else catches the Nets, then our probabilities of getting picks are:

#1 pick: 24.5%
Top 3: 63.4%

Whereas if the season ended today, they would be:

#1 pick: 25%
Top 3: 64.3%

The upshot: for all practical purposes, our odds of getting the #1 pick are pretty close to what they'd be if the season ended today, even looking out to the end of the season and allowing for a sensible chance that someone catches BKN.

Not totally out of the realm of possibility, given that they went 6-23 after a 10-10 start. But yes, I am cherry picking my numbers and time frame.

Mike

Nice work. I will say that it will be hard for the Nets to catch the Lakers considering the Lakers have a 7 game cushion in the win column. Lakers have played 49 games with 33 to go. Even winning 4 of those games puts a ton of pressure on the Nets.

Here is another little nugget. Everyone should be rooting for the Lakers to win as much as possible and heres why. Everyone knows that the Lakers have to give up their pick to the Sixers if its not top 3. What is rarely discussed is the fact that they also owe the Magic a 1st rd pick. If the Lakers keep their pick this year then the 2019 pick they owe becomes 2nd rds. If they lose the pick to the Sixers this year they also lose a 1st in 19.

So all in all everyone should should root for them to win games to not give Philly a good pick but also it wouldnt allow them to keep their 19 pick either.

No, we should be hoping for them to lose as much as possible and stay in the bottom two (but not below the Nets!). I'd much rather the Lakers get a top pick this draft that is guard-heavy than the Sixers, who could very well project to be a dominant force with another franchise-level player to add to the mix.

However, with their current winning streak and some luck from the Lakers staying in the top 3, they could ultimately only have a mid lottery pick in this draft, which would slow them down a bit in their development without any real rotation level guards on their roster.

I dont understand this at all. If the Lakers finished 6th and gave the pick up to the Sixers and they lose their 19 1st rd pick why would you be in favor of them keeping the pick and getting a top player?

The Sixers core frightens me more than LAs does. Id rather see the Lakers get a top 3 pick then see Philly get a 3-6 range pick.[/b]

Pretty much this. The Sixers have a nice core of big guys right now, but they're absolutely empty on decent, rotation-level guards. You add someone like a Smith to that group, and they could be dangerous down the line.

The Lakers are much less stacked, and if between the two one of them would become a superteam, I'd rather it be the Lakers in the West rather than the Sixers in the East, let alone our own division.

[GratefulCs]

I absolutely do not want to see the Lakers get an undeserved top pick in this draft and KEEP their '19 pick. Being scared of future Philly is reasonable, but this is the freakin' Lakers we are taking about and we just can't let them pass us in championships. This is like the most important thing in the NBA world.

Bingo

[Boris Badenov]

The Sixers core frightens me more than LAs does. Id rather see the Lakers get a top 3 pick then see Philly get a 3-6 range pick.[/b]

Pretty much this. The Sixers have a nice core of big guys right now, but they're absolutely empty on decent, rotation-level guards. You add someone like a Smith to that group, and they could be dangerous down the line.

The Lakers are much less stacked, and if between the two one of them would become a superteam, I'd rather it be the Lakers in the West rather than the Sixers in the East, let alone our own division.

I simmed the lottery the other day and Philly got #1 and #4. NOOOOOOOOOO!!!

[mef730]

The Sixers core frightens me more than LAs does. Id rather see the Lakers get a top 3 pick then see Philly get a 3-6 range pick.[/b]

Pretty much this. The Sixers have a nice core of big guys right now, but they're absolutely empty on decent, rotation-level guards. You add someone like a Smith to that group, and they could be dangerous down the line.

The Lakers are much less stacked, and if between the two one of them would become a superteam, I'd rather it be the Lakers in the West rather than the Sixers in the East, let alone our own division.

I simmed the lottery the other day and Philly got #1 and #4. NOOOOOOOOOO!!!

Not worried. As you know from having been here a while, the simulator hates us even more than the real lottery does.

Mike

[clevelandceltic]

Here are the things that I think:

1. I think Philly will end up in the 9th or 10th spot based on Embiid and their current confidence.
2. At 16 wins, the Lakers still have just as much a chance to finish in the 6th spot as they do the 2nd spot despite their current level of play.
3. I would much rather see the Lakers lose their 17 and 19 picks than worry about giving the 17  pick to the Sixers.
4. After rewatching some of the prospects in the 18 draft, I think the top 2 players have higher upsides than players in the 17 draft.
5. Outside of the top 6 minus whatever Giles turns into, Im not worried about Philly or anyone else getting a star player. Could they? Yes but I dont see players than Im willing to bank on being stars.
6. I dont see how this pick isnt top 4 based on how far ahead teams are from Brooklyn.

[Ilikesports17]

Here are the things that I think:

1. I think Philly will end up in the 9th or 10th spot based on Embiid and their current confidence.
2. At 16 wins, the Lakers still have just as much a chance to finish in the 6th spot as they do the 2nd spot despite their current level of play.
3. I would much rather see the Lakers lose their 17 and 19 picks than worry about giving the 17  pick to the Sixers.
4. After rewatching some of the prospects in the 18 draft, I think the top 2 players have higher upsides than players in the 17 draft.
5. Outside of the top 6 minus whatever Giles turns into, Im not worried about Philly or anyone else getting a star player. Could they? Yes but I dont see players than Im willing to bank on being stars.
6. I dont see how this pick isnt top 4 based on how far ahead teams are from Brooklyn.

Whos that? Ayton and Doncic?

[nickagneta]

4. After rewatching some of the prospects in the 18 draft, I think the top 2 players have higher upsides than players in the 17 draft.

I see this said every year:

We have to get Wiggins...nah...Towns and Okafor are better we will get one of them next year.
We have to get Towns or Okafor...nah...Simmons and Ingram are better we will get one of them next year.
We have to get Simmons or Ingram...nah...Fultz and Ball are better we will get them next year.
We have to get Ball or Fultz...nah...two guys coming out next year are better.

And people wonder why I don't pay any attention to scouting 17 and 18 year olds

[clevelandceltic]

Here are the things that I think:

1. I think Philly will end up in the 9th or 10th spot based on Embiid and their current confidence.
2. At 16 wins, the Lakers still have just as much a chance to finish in the 6th spot as they do the 2nd spot despite their current level of play.
3. I would much rather see the Lakers lose their 17 and 19 picks than worry about giving the 17  pick to the Sixers.
4. After rewatching some of the prospects in the 18 draft, I think the top 2 players have higher upsides than players in the 17 draft.
5. Outside of the top 6 minus whatever Giles turns into, Im not worried about Philly or anyone else getting a star player. Could they? Yes but I dont see players than Im willing to bank on being stars.
6. I dont see how this pick isnt top 4 based on how far ahead teams are from Brooklyn.

Whos that? Ayton and Doncic?

I have not seen enough of Doncic to say that he is better than the prospects this year. I was referring to Michael Porter Jr. and Ayton whom I think if engaged and aggressive are higher upside prospects than prospects at the top of this draft. Now I will say this. If Ayton floats like I have seen him in 4 of the 5 games I have seen and if Porter isnt aggressive then these are moot points.

[celticsclay]

The Sixers core frightens me more than LAs does. Id rather see the Lakers get a top 3 pick then see Philly get a 3-6 range pick.[/b]

Pretty much this. The Sixers have a nice core of big guys right now, but they're absolutely empty on decent, rotation-level guards. You add someone like a Smith to that group, and they could be dangerous down the line.

The Lakers are much less stacked, and if between the two one of them would become a superteam, I'd rather it be the Lakers in the West rather than the Sixers in the East, let alone our own division.

I simmed the lottery the other day and Philly got #1 and #4. NOOOOOOOOOO!!!

That is their dream scenario. Here is their latest article on it.

http://www.libertyballers.com/2017/1/27/14395344/land-the-picks-bryan-kings-lakers-are-unpredictable-demarcus-cousins-rudy-gay-russell-clarkson

(A lot of their fans seem resigned to only getting one mid to late round pick)

[clevelandceltic]

4. After rewatching some of the prospects in the 18 draft, I think the top 2 players have higher upsides than players in the 17 draft.

I see this said every year:

We have to get Wiggins...nah...Towns and Okafor are better we will get one of them next year.
We have to get Towns or Okafor...nah...Simmons and Ingram are better we will get one of them next year.
We have to get Simmons or Ingram...nah...Fultz and Ball are better we will get them next year.
We have to get Ball or Fultz...nah...two guys coming out next year are better.

And people wonder why I don't pay any attention to scouting 17 and 18 year olds

Well let me be clear. Im not a part of that crowd. Im not even saying that the Cs need to get any player in either draft. I actually wasnt even referring to the Cs when I mentioned the 18 players I was more looking at the fact that the Lakers pick to Philly has no protection next year. It was also an observation about the players next year.

I dont make claims about players that I havent seen. As recently as 3 weeks ago I would have sold that 18 for a player in a heartbeat because I didnt like that in the 4 or 5 times I had seen Ayton play he coasted most of the game. Porter wasnt on my radar but Bamba was whom I like but dont love. After seeing Ayton actually engaged I would put his ceiling higher than  any player in this draft.

You say you dont watch 17 and 18 year olds well thats where you have to begin to form a basis for some of these players because they run into all types of issues in college. FOr instance most are shocked at Towns ability to shoot because he didnt show that in college, well he showed that in the 2 Hoop Summits he played in.

Looking over that list, the guy I said (I didnt post on here at that time) the team must get was Embiid. I liked Towns as a junior more than I liked Wiggins going into college.

I would never say that I am always right but unlike most I pay very little attention to numbers and alot of attention on various skills a guy might have hence why I liked and continue to like Brown more than Ingram which was and is still contrary to popular belief.

Lastly, if you want a frame of reference as to why I think the top 2 next year have more upside than this years top 2 (Fultz whom I love and Tatum whom I really like) go to the espn app and watch Nathan Hale's Michael Porter play and then watch a Tatum game from HS and you will see scoring is much easier for Porter while being a more explosive athlete.