Ford & Pelton on International Prospects

[Eddie20]

Good article...

The deepest crop of international prospects in a while? That's how it looks, with six international players projected to go in the first round and perhaps another seven in the second round of the NBA draft.

Who are the top NBA prospects? Can someone make an instant impact they way Kristaps Porzingis and Nikola Jokic did last year?


Chad Ford: For NBA scouts and GMs, I think there's a clear No. 1 prospect in Croatia's Dragan Bender.

In the draft process, Bender is getting looks as high as the Celtics at No. 3. More realistically, I think he ends up in either Phoenix (No. 4), Minnesota (No. 5) or New Orleans (No. 6).

His talent is worthy of a pick that high for several reasons. Not only does he have great size for his position, but he's very, very skilled. Bender is an excellent shooter and an underrated passer and has a terrific motor on the defensive end. He is young and lacks experience, and I do have some concerns about his very pedestrian athleticism, but overall I think he has a chance to be a very good power forward in the NBA.

Kevin, I know you really like him. But according to your statistical Big Board, is he still the top international guy? And just how high would you take him?

Kevin Pelton: He is, and I would rank him No. 2 overall on my personal board behind Ben Simmons. I still think the Lakers should probably take Brandon Ingram because I would put him in the same tier as Bender, and Ingram is a better fit both for their needs (he'll probably immediately be their best defender on the perimeter, and maybe their best shooter off the catch too) and their timeline (the Lakers want someone who will impress 2017 free agents).

Bender doesn't necessarily fit the Boston Celtics' short-term needs any better, but by No. 3 I think he's a much better prospect than anyone else left on the board, so as we discussed recently, he would be my pick.

The same is true for the Phoenix Suns and Minnesota Timberwolves with the next two picks. So might he get by all three teams? And who's the next international off the board?

Ford: I believe there's a chance Bender could slide past New Orleans at No. 6. If that happens, I see no way he gets past the Kings at No. 8. Vlade Divac knows Bender well.

The second-highest international player on my board is Furkan Korkmaz. He's been there all year and nothing I've seen this year dissuades me from the idea that he should be a lottery pick. Not every team agrees, but the majority of NBA teams have Korkmaz second.

He's a terrific shooter, a good playmaker and one of the youngest players in the draft. He needs to get stronger, but to me he's the prototypical NBA 2-guard -- an athletic, playmaking shooter. And given his international experience, I think he can come and contribute right now.

I think this is where you and I start disagreeing -- right, Kevin?

Pelton: It is. Especially given his youth, I think Korkmaz projects well offensively. However, his performance this season offers some red flags at the defensive end.

Between the Turkish BSL (where he saw most of his action) and Euroleague, Korkmaz had 12 steals and five blocks in 648 minutes. Among NBA guards who played regular minutes last season, Arron Afflalo and John Jenkins were the two with worse steal rates. Since steals are a good indicator of overall defensive awareness and quickness, that's a bad sign.

I'd go with Spanish forward Juan Hernangomez as my No. 2 international player. I see Hernangomez having the potential to develop into a credible stretch-4 who isn't a liability on the defensive glass. He was a prolific 3-point shooter as a key player in Spain at age 20, though not an especially accurate one, and has reportedly shot the ball well in workouts.

I actually tend to prefer Hernangomez in that role to the more touted Henry Ellenson. What do scouts think?

Ford: Yeah, I was afraid you were going to say that about Korkmaz. I'm chalking it up to youth and playing in a league with grown men every day. From the tape against his peers, he looks plenty athletic.

As for Hernangomez, he's grown on me and scouts all year. I've talked to teams that have him ranked third, fourth and fifth on their boards -- nobody as high as second. But I see why he could fulfill that promise. I think Knicks fans would like to know whether you think he'll ultimately be better than his brother Willy, whom the Knicks drafted in the second round last year.

My third pick is Ante Zizic from Croatia. There's a raging debate among NBA teams on whether he or Ivica Zubac is the top international center on the board. I lean toward Zizic because of his rebounding ability, NBA body and relentlessness. He has a crazy motor.

I worry about what he'll contribute offensively, but given where he's projected in the draft right now (No. 15-25), he seems like a really good get as a rotation big who comes in and just takes care of the paint defensively.

Who's No. 3 for you?


Will Furkan Korkmaz go in the lottery? Aykut Akici/EB/Getty Images
Pelton: I'd also have Zizic. He and Zubac have relatively similar statistical projections, but I'm more inclined to trust Zizic's numbers because they've been compiled in a larger sample against better competition.

He's played more than 850 minutes in the Adriatic League the past two seasons, the same multinational league that has produced Jusuf Nurkic and Nikola Jokic in recent years. Zubac barely saw action in the Adriatic League before getting minutes in the Serbian domestic league late in the season, where he didn't play particularly well. I can still see promise for Zubac, but Zizic looks like a more certain NBA contributor to me.

I might even have him ahead of Hernangomez if not for the fact that stretch-4s seem more of a commodity going forward than true centers.

Is Zubac next on your list?

Ford: He's next on most NBA team's lists. And on a few, he's even ahead of Zizic. While Zizic has a great motor and is a terrific rebounder, Zubac's size and offensive skills are very attractive to NBA teams. He's more skilled than Zizic offensively.

I just worry that large, not particularly athletic centers aren't as valuable as they once were in the NBA -- especially when they struggle defensively. For goodness' sake, the Sixers are having a hard time trading Jahlil Okafor, a player who would've been untouchable 10 years ago.

But there's talent there with Zubac, and some talent evaluators I really trust insist he will be a starting center in the league. He's not my favorite, but at this point I think he's the consensus third- or fourth-best international prospect in the draft.

Who would you have fourth? Zubac as well?

Pelton: No, I have Zubac a bit farther down the list because I'd like to see that offensive skill in regular minutes against high-level competition before completely buying in.

Next up for me is Korkmaz. Lest I sound too negative about him, Korkmaz still ranks 24th in my stats-only projections, and if the steal rate is more a fluke than an indicator, his shooting ability will make him valuable at a thin position in the NBA.

Who's fifth on your list?

Ford: Hernangomez for all the reasons you suggested, though it is a close call with French big man Guerschon Yabusele. Yabusele is strong, surprisingly nimble for such a big guy and can even shoot the 3. I love his game, but most scouts have Hernangomez higher. Given your statistical projections, he gets the nod at No. 5.

Pelton: I would have Yabusele fifth on my list. He's probably the international prospect whose statistical projections match up best with the scouting. Between high-percentage finishing and the ability to shoot the 3, Yabusele should be an efficient scorer, though I've got some concerns about whether he rebounds well enough to play power forward if he's not quick enough to defend on the wing.

Ford: OK, Kevin, it's time for a quick rundown of picks six through 10. Here's my list:

6. Yabusele
7. Timothe Luwawu, SF, France
8. Isaia Cordinier, SG, France
9. Rade Zagorac, SF, Serbia
10. Zhou Qi, C, China

I just spoke about my secret crush on Yabusele. I think he's one of the few immediate impact international players in the draft.

Luwawu is a conundrum. Some teams have him ranked in the late lottery, others in the second round. Defensively, I get it. He has the ability to be a multi-positional lockdown defender.

But offensively, I have some serious worries and wonder if he's really any better than some of the American 3-and-D players who are available.

Cordinier is young, but there's real talent there. I didn't love him at the Nike Hoop Summit. But a couple of days in Los Angeles watching him go against Kris Dunn, Tyler Ulis and Ron Baker convinced me that, with patience, he has some real game.

Zagorac is a long, intriguing wing who excels both athletically and as a scorer. When his jump shot is falling, he's dangerous. He's still developing, but I like the talent.

And finally, there's Zhou. Based on sheer talent, he should probably be fourth or fifth on this board. He's tall, long and very, very skilled.

But NBA scouts have serious concerns he's far older than his listed birth date of 1996. Many believe -- and a few claim they have some evidence -- that he was born in 1993 or 1992.


While that doesn't change his talent, it does cause pause -- especially with his frail body. If he's closer to 23 or 24 with his current body type, he's probably never going to be able to add the strength he needs to battle in the NBA.

Pelton: Here's mine:

6. Zubac
7. Zhou
8. Luwawu
9. Petr Cornelie, PF, France
10. Georgios Papagiannis, C, Greece

We've already discussed Zubac at length. Projecting Zhou at age 23 instead of 20 makes the difference between his statistical projection being the best in the draft and 17th. That's how important age is. Add in the concerns about his frame and the fact that he won't be available for a year and I think he should probably go late in the first round or early in the second. Still, his shot blocking and shooting touch should make Zhou an NBA player regardless of his age.

Because of the concerns you mentioned, Luwawu projects below replacement in the NBA. I have him this high only on the possibility that he is as good defensively as advertised. Cornelie is 6-foot-10 and has FIBA 3-point range, having made almost one a game in French play. I'm willing to gamble on that combination.

Papagiannis hasn't played enough minutes to have a statistical projection but did post a 26.7 PER (player efficiency rating) in Greek play at age 18, so he's worth a second-round flyer.

Quickly on your other two players: Cordinier projects sub-replacement by my method because of his turnover problems and weak competition in the French second division. Zagorac looks like an efficient scorer but provided little in terms of defensive box-score stats.

[mmmmm]

Good discussion.

I tend to concur with most of Pelton's rankings, though I like Korkmaz more.

I think Petr Cornelie could be a real sleeper. 

I'm a little surprised they don't mention Paul Zipser, who played fantastic at the recent Adidas Eurocamp.

[TheSundanceKid]

Take them all! Take all the internationals!!

[Tr1boy]

These two guys have little to no idea as to what they are talking about. That is all

[BleedGreen1989]

These two guys have little to no idea as to what they are talking about. That is all

Well thank god we have Triboy to give us the real stuff...

[Tr1boy]

Pelton is a fool. Bender at #2 over Ingram

Ford at least says

"I believe there's a chance Bender could slide past New Orleans at No. 6. If that happens, I see no way he gets past the Kings at No. 8. Vlade Divac knows Bender well."

Says something right. Bender is going to drop

[Eddie20]

These two guys have little to no idea as to what they are talking about. That is all

Well thank god we have Triboy to give us the real stuff...

TP

[Celtics4ever]

They are part of  foriegn hype that brought us Darko as well.  Some guys pan out some don't.


http://athlonsports.com/nba/nba-draft-busts-foreign-player-edition

http://brobible.com/guyism/article/nba-draft-international-busts/

Yet there is a ton of hype every year.   They do it for US guys too.   I think they try to hit a home run every year so they look genius.   These guys loved Exum too, and how did that pan out.

“Six [foot], six [inches], six-nine wingspan, quickest athlete in the draft,” Ford said. “Gets to the basket, has the killer instinct, needs to learn how to shoot, has the right of the game. He’s tested off the charts [physiologically] and then when you add an NBA type frame–he’s got great size for his position and he’s got NBA level athleticism at least in speed and quickness–he’s not an explosive leaper. He’s an OK leaper, he’s not going to jump out the gym, but where it matters most–side to side and quickness, those guys tend to not fail in the NBA. I think, frankly, that’s who the Bucks should take at two. I think he’s going to be a stud.”

http://philadelphia.cbslocal.com/2014/06/25/chad-ford-says-one-nba-gm-compared-dante-exum-to-kobe-bryant/

4.8 PPG   35% FG

http://espn.go.com/nba/player/_/id/3102528/dante-exum

[Who]

A lot of really good stuff in that article. Thanks for posting that.