Kevin Pelton's Top 30 prospects based on stats and scouting

[Eddie20]

I'll put the write-ups for players often discussed here as possible Cs selections.

A familiar name tops my statistics-based projections for the 2016 NBA Draft, but a surprising player is not far behind.


I first unveiled my projections, which factor in a player's translated college or international performance, his age and his rank on Chad Ford's big board, for collegians during the NCAA tournament.

(Read more on the process and see past projections here.)

Now, it's time to update those rankings to include the final list of international prospects after Monday's deadline to withdraw from the draft.

Remarkably, just two players are in both Ford's top 10 and the top 10 of my statistical projections, the group that tends to yield All-Stars more consistently. Typically, there are about five such players per season. That lack of agreement between performance and scouting might be one reason 2016 is considered a weak draft.

Although this draft is relatively light on star college talent, the international crop looks strong. Four of the top-10 prospects by my projections played overseas, and three more international players rank in the top 30, not including the Australian-born prospect who ranks No. 1.

2. Dragan Bender
Maccabi Tel Aviv
Power forward
Big Board: No. 6
Stats: No. 2

Consensus: 3.4 WARP

As previewed in my discussion of Bender's potential with Ford, the Croatian forward by way of Israeli power Maccabi Tel Aviv projects as the second-best prospect in the draft, ahead of consensus top-two pick Brandon Ingram.

Bender's projection considers strictly his performance for Maccabi and does not include his impressive 2014 FIBA Europe U-18 play, which earned one of the highest scores ever for a young international player from draft analyst Layne Vashro (now working for Kroenke Sports & Entertainment, the owners of the Denver Nuggets).

4. Jamal Murray
Kentucky
Guard
Big Board: No. 3
Stats: No. 15

Consensus: 2.6 WARP

Although his performance at Kentucky doesn't suggest that Murray is a point guard (his projected assist rate is only average for an NBA-bound shooting guard), he projects well offensively. His freshman performance was broadly similar to that of C.J. McCollum at Lehigh after accounting for schedule strength, but Murray created more shots and shot more 3s than McCollum.

The concern is defense; Murray barely dented the box score with steals or blocks.

5. Jakob Poeltl
Utah
Center
Big Board: No. 12
Stats: No. 6

Consensus: 2.3 WARP

My projections and those unveiled by the ESPN Analytics department last week agree on Poeltl, who joins Simmons and Ingram in the top five in both models.

The only question is whether a traditional center such as Poeltl remains as valuable in a changing NBA. The limited number of teams who need such a player is one reason Poeltl ranks lower on Ford's big board.

6. Zhou Qi (if age 20)
Xinjiang Guanghui
Power forward
Big Board: No. 48
Stats: No. 1

Consensus: 2.3 WARP

Forget about Bender, who has been scouted extensively by the NBA. Zhou is the real "international man of mystery" in the 2016 draft. He dominated weak competition in the Chinese CBA the past two seasons, but questions persist about how his weak frame will hold up against NBA opposition.

Although Zhou wasn't quite as good this season as he was in 2014-15 -- when he blocked better than one in 10 opponent 2-point attempts while shooting nearly 70 percent from the field -- based on his listed age (20), he tops all players in my statistical projections. If instead Zhou is projected at age 23, based on scouts' suspicions about his age, he drops to 16th in projected WARP and 27th in the consensus projections.

7. Kris Dunn
Providence
Point guard
Big Board: No. 4
Stats: No. 19

Consensus: 2.3 WARP

Because my model considers only the past three seasons, Dunn's relatively weak freshman campaign doesn't work against him. That season is a bit of a concern, though Dunn's terrific defensive stats (his projected steal rate ranks second among prospects in Ford's top 100) should translate reliably to the NBA.

10. Marquese Chriss
Washington
Power forward
Big Board: No. 5
Stats: No. 32

Consensus: 1.9 WARP

An unheralded prospect entering his lone season as a Husky, Chriss suddenly finds himself fifth on Ford's big board and even higher in mock drafts. That might be too much, too soon.

While Chriss is an explosive athlete who showed college 3-point range (shooting an even 35 percent), his defensive rebounding is a major concern. He was a below average defensive rebounder at UW -- not for a big man but for a player at any position. Whatever team drafts Chriss will have to hope that was a product of the Huskies' tendency to switch Chriss onto guards or his late-developing frame.

13. Buddy Hield
Oklahoma
Shooting guard
Big Board: No. 8
Stats: No. 28

Consensus: 1.7 WARP

A unique feature of my model is that it weighs earlier seasons in college more heavily than recent seasons because of the poor track record of late bloomers such as Hield. If Hield proves to be a knockdown 3-point shooter in the NBA, he'll be an exception, but historically, past improvement has not guaranteed more in the future.

17. Domantas Sabonis
Gonzaga
Power forward
Big Board: No. 10
Stats: No. 31

Consensus: 1.5 WARP

A high-percentage finisher, Sabonis projects to have the seventh-best true shooting percentage as a rookie among players in Ford's top 100. He's also a good passer for a big man, but he rates poorly at the defensive end because of low steal and block rates.

21. Denzel Valentine
Michigan State
Small forward
Big Board: No. 22
Stats: No. 20

Consensus: 1.3 WARP

Valentine -- not the more heralded Hield -- rated as the best player in college hoops last season on a per-minute basis, by Sports-Reference.com's box plus-minus metric.

Valentine too was a late bloomer and did not emerge as a star until his junior year, so he doesn't project quite as well overall as his senior season would suggest.





Projections for Ford's top 100

Note: Due to insufficient statistical data, I do not have projections for Thon Maker and three other top-100 prospects: Georgios Papagiannis (No. 74), Gracin Bakumanya (No. 76) and Brandon Austin (No. 100).

Pelton's Draft Projections
PLAYER   BIG BOARD   WARP   RK   CONSENSUS   RK
1. Ben Simmons   1   2.4   6   3.6   1
2. Dragan Bender   6   3.4   2   3.4   2
3. Brandon Ingram   2   1.9   11   2.9   3
4. Jamal Murray   3   1.7   15   2.6   4
5. Jakob Poeltl   12   2.4   5   2.3   5
6. Zhou Qi   48   3.5   1   2.3   6
7. Kris Dunn   4   1.5   19   2.3   7
8. Juan Hernangomez   26   2.6   4   2   8
9. Ante Zizic   21   2.3   7   1.9   9
10. Marquese Chriss   5   1.1   32   1.9   10
11. Wade Baldwin IV   18   1.9   12   1.7   11
12. Ivica Zubac   25   2.1   8   1.7   12
13. Buddy Hield   8   1.2   28   1.7   13
14. Fred VanVleet   60   2.8   3   1.7   14
15. Henry Ellenson   11   1.4   23   1.6   15
16. Tyler Ulis   23   1.9   14   1.6   16
17. Domantas Sabonis   10   1.2   31   1.5   17
18. Furkan Korkmaz   14   1.4   22   1.5   18
19. Patrick McCaw   28   1.9   10   1.5   19
20. Deyonta Davis   16   1.4   21   1.5   20
Player   Big Board   WARP   Rk   Consensus   Rk
21. Denzel Valentine   22   1.5   20   1.3   21
22. Diamond Stone   32   1.7   17   1.2   22
23. Gary Payton II   55   2.1   9   1.2   23
24. Chinanu Onuaku   35   1.6   18   1.1   24
25. Cheick Diallo   27   1.3   27   1.1   25
26. Jameel Warney   78   1.9   13   1.1   26
27. Guerschon Yabusele   30   1.3   24   1   27
28. Dejounte Murray   9   0.3   59   1   28
29. Malik Beasley   17   0.8   44   1   29
30. Ron Baker   59   1.7   16   0.9   30
31. Skal Labissiere   13   0.4   53   0.9   31
32. Stephen Zimmerman Jr.   40   1.3   25   0.9   32
33. Brice Johnson   37   1.2   30   0.8   33
34. Caris LeVert   41   1.2   29   0.8   34
35. Jarrod Uthoff   36   1   39   0.8   35
36. Marcus Paige   65   1.3   26   0.6   36
37. Malachi Richardson   15   0.2   67   0.6   37
38. Kay Felder   49   1   40   0.6   38
39. Jaylen Brown   7   -0.5   101   0.5   39
40. Derrick Jones Jr.   86   1.1   33   0.5   40
Player   Big Board   WARP   Rk   Consensus   Rk
41. James Webb III   58   1   38   0.5   41
42. Alex Caruso   NR   1.1   34   0.5   42
43. Shawn Long   87   1.1   35   0.5   43
44. Daniel Ochefu   NR   1.1   36   0.5   44
45. Jordan Fouse   NR   1   37   0.5   45
46. Robert Carter   51   0.8   42   0.4   46
47. Josh Hagins   NR   0.9   41   0.4   47
48. Petr Cornelie   50   0.7   45   0.4   48
49. Demetrius Jackson   29   0.3   58   0.4   49
50. Taurean Prince   34   0.3   56   0.3   50
51. Thomas Walkup   NR   0.8   43   0.3   51
52. DeAndre Bembry   20   -0.1   76   0.3   52
53. Rico Gathers   98   0.7   46   0.2   53
54. Pascal Siakam   43   0.4   54   0.2   55
55. Daniel Hamilton   71   0.6   48   0.2   56
56. Ryan Arcidiacono   79   0.6   49   0.2   57
57. Egidijus Mockevicius   85   0.6   50   0.2   58
58. Josh Scott   99   0.6   51   0.1   59
59. Isaiah Whitehead   47   0.2   61   0.1   61
60. Dorian Finney-Smith   72   0.4   55   0   62
Player   Big Board   WARP   Rk   Consensus   Rk
61. Joel Bolomboy   42   0   73   -0.1   64
62. Damian Jones   24   -0.4   94   -0.1   65
63. Ben Bentil   31   -0.3   84   -0.1   66
64. Yogi Ferrell   77   0.3   60   -0.1   67
65. Jake Layman   53   0.1   70   -0.1   68
66. Tim Quarterman   63   0.2   66   -0.1   73
67. Brannen Greene   81   0.1   69   -0.2   75
68. David Walker   80   0.1   71   -0.2   76
69. Isaia Cordinier   44   -0.2   80   -0.2   78
70. A.J. Hammons   46   -0.2   81   -0.2   79
71. Timothe Luwawu   33   -0.4   95   -0.2   80
72. Kyle Wiltjer   73   0   74   -0.3   81
73. Malcolm Brogdon   38   -0.5   97   -0.3   82
74. Dyshawn Pierre   97   -0.1   75   -0.3   83
75. A.J. English   61   -0.1   78   -0.4   85
76. Rade Zagorac   45   -0.4   91   -0.4   86
77. Paul Zipser   57   -0.2   82   -0.4   87
78. Troy Williams   70   -0.2   79   -0.4   88
79. Isaiah Cousins   39   -0.6   105   -0.4   90
80. Isaiah Miles   84   -0.3   86   -0.4   92
Player   Big Board   WARP   Rk   Consensus   Rk
81. Kyle Collinsworth   83   -0.3   87   -0.5   93
82. Damion Lee   94   -0.4   88   -0.5   94
83. Tyrone Wallace   66   -0.4   90   -0.5   96
84. Perry Ellis   69   -0.5   99   -0.6   101
85. Michael Gbinije   52   -0.6   106   -0.6   103
86. Sheldon McClellan   64   -0.7   108   -0.7   108
87. Georges Niang   67   -0.8   111   -0.8   111
88. Wayne Selden Jr.   68   -0.9   115   -0.9   115
89. Zach Auguste   89   -0.9   116   -0.9   116
90. Prince Ibeh   88   -0.9   117   -0.9   117
91. Danuel House   82   -1   119   -1   119
92. Marcus Georges-Hunt   96   -1.1   121   -1   121
93. Marshall Plumlee   75   -1.3   122   -1.1   122
94. Rosco Allen   93   -1.3   123   -1.1   123
95. Anthony Barber   56   -1.5   129   -1.3   128
96. Alex Poythress   54   -1.6   132   -1.3   130
97. Devin Williams   92   -1.6   131   -1.4   132
98. Jalen Reynolds   91   -1.7   134   -1.4   134
99. Isaiah Taylor   90   -2   138   -1.6   138
100. Elgin Cook   62   -2   139   -1.7   139
101. Nikola Jovanovic   95   -2.4   142   -1.9   142

[CFAN38]

"Bender's projection considers strictly his performance for Maccabi and does not include his impressive 2014 FIBA Europe U-18 play, which earned one of the highest scores ever for a young international player from draft analyst Layne Vashro (now working for Kroenke Sports & Entertainment, the owners of the Denver Nuggets)."

This was my biggest take from this. I can really see Denver wanting bender and with their impressive pile of assets DA may be able to to get a deal done.

[Eddie20]

"Bender's projection considers strictly his performance for Maccabi and does not include his impressive 2014 FIBA Europe U-18 play, which earned one of the highest scores ever for a young international player from draft analyst Layne Vashro (now working for Kroenke Sports & Entertainment, the owners of the Denver Nuggets)."

This was my biggest take from this. I can really see Denver wanting bender and with their impressive pile of assets DA may be able to to get a deal done.

Just throwing this out there...

#7
#15
Nurkic

for

#3
#23
Young


We would be guaranteed of getting either Dunn, Murray, Hield, Brown, or Chriss since there is a drop after #8. We move from #23 to #15. We land a young promising center, albeit one who is coming off an injury plagued season, but who is also stuck playing behind Jokic.


The Nuggets get Bender who would form a pretty potent young 1/2 punch with Jokic. They get Young, who perhaps could emerge in a change of scenery. They would get the #23, which along with the #19 they already have, would leave them in a nice position to add a couple of draft and stash guys (Zizic, Zubac, Hernangomez, etc.).

[Tr1boy]

Denver can have Bender

Eddie20 watch some games instead of obsessing over what ford and pelton say or make up

[Eja117]

Zhou Qi at 6. Yeah.

[TwinTower14]

Denver can have Bender

Eddie20 watch some games instead of obsessing over what ford and pelton say or make up

My favorite game is when Bender went for 35/14 as a 16 year old kid and held another lottery pick to 2 pts.  Did you see that game?

[CFAN38]

"Bender's projection considers strictly his performance for Maccabi and does not include his impressive 2014 FIBA Europe U-18 play, which earned one of the highest scores ever for a young international player from draft analyst Layne Vashro (now working for Kroenke Sports & Entertainment, the owners of the Denver Nuggets)."

This was my biggest take from this. I can really see Denver wanting bender and with their impressive pile of assets DA may be able to to get a deal done.

Just throwing this out there...

#7
#15
Nurkic

for

#3
#23
Young


We would be guaranteed of getting either Dunn, Murray, Hield, Brown, or Chriss since there is a drop after #8. We move from #23 to #15. We land a young promising center, albeit one who is coming off an injury plagued season, but who is also stuck playing behind Jokic.


The Nuggets get Bender who would form a pretty potent young 1/2 punch with Jokic. They get Young, who perhaps could emerge in a change of scenery. They would get the #23, which along with the #19 they already have, would leave them in a nice position to add a couple of draft and stash guys (Zizic, Zubac, Hernangomez, etc.).

I can see many logical trades involving the Cs and nuggets. They have vet forwards the Cs could use in gallinari or Faried as well as picks. A 3+23 for 7+15+19 makes sense if the Cs can then package the teen pick into a 9-11 pick. The Kings at 8 may even be tempted to do a deal if Dunn is off the board. Maybe 15+16+19+ rozier for 8. Sounds crazy but they need players and this draft is deep 11-35 with rotational level talents. With 7 and 8 the Cs could net two really nice players.

[Smokeeye123]

Jaylen Brown is...39th???

[number_n9ne]

I've been very high on Zhou Qi over the past few weeks. This is the first I've heard about the age worry. Super interesting.

[Eddie20]

Denver can have Bender

Eddie20 watch some games instead of obsessing over what ford and pelton say or make up

My favorite game is when Bender went for 35/14 as a 16 year old kid and held another lottery pick to 2 pts.  Did you see that game?

You didn't know that Triboy has been to Israel to scout Bender?

[Tr1boy]

Denver can have Bender

Eddie20 watch some games instead of obsessing over what ford and pelton say or make up

My favorite game is when Bender went for 35/14 as a 16 year old kid and held another lottery pick to 2 pts.  Did you see that game?

You didn't know that Triboy has been to Israel to scout Bender?

I didn't have to.  The answer is, he sat on the bench

[trickybilly]

"Bender's projection considers strictly his performance for Maccabi and does not include his impressive 2014 FIBA Europe U-18 play, which earned one of the highest scores ever for a young international player from draft analyst Layne Vashro (now working for Kroenke Sports & Entertainment, the owners of the Denver Nuggets)."

This was my biggest take from this. I can really see Denver wanting bender and with their impressive pile of assets DA may be able to to get a deal done.

That's one of the more interesting aspects of this draft. So many and varied guys in top 12. In another thread the "Dunn for Butler" thing was mentioned, but you could equally say that about many teams wanting different guys at 3. Marquese Chriss is projected usually around 7-12, but I could easily see someone wanting to trade up to ensure getting him. There are many teams who simply do not have any assets we want, like Charlotte, but the pool is pretty big really..

[Eddie20]

Denver can have Bender

Eddie20 watch some games instead of obsessing over what ford and pelton say or make up

My favorite game is when Bender went for 35/14 as a 16 year old kid and held another lottery pick to 2 pts.  Did you see that game?

You didn't know that Triboy has been to Israel to scout Bender?

I didn't have to.  The answer is, he sat on the bench

So then what games are you suggesting I watch? You're contradicting your earlier post. Moreover, if all he did with sit on the bench how exactly did you arrive on your firm opinion of him without anything to substantiate it? Is that based on the youtube videos we've all had access to and/or the 18u game where as a 16 year old he took an older Sabonis' lunch money?

[Celtics4ever]

A lot of these scouts are like the news nowadays, they create hype where there should not be any.   Potential  is great, just ask James Young how it has helped his game.   Ask Darko, for every Porzingas there are 5 or 6 guys who fail.

One has to take this with an extreme amount of skepticism.  I wonder if he gets a cut from the agents.   Bender stats were not that good.   I think it calls into question the system of WARP.

[CoachBo]

Pelton shot his credibility on the Euromistake. I have zero interest in his "prospects." More like suspects.