off season-marcus in perfect place

[Kaz]

I think Smart's ceiling is Tony Allen's defense combined with Conley's offense.  His most likely result will be just Tony Allen for both sides of the floor, but I think he still has potential to be a floor general, score 17 ppg, and play shutdown defense.

[mr. dee]

Chauncey Billups with Elite D.

Chauncey Billups himself have elite D

[ImShakHeIsShaq]

smart did look dominate in SL but his shot was not a part of that, he shot poorly IIRC.

[tarheelsxxiii]

I think Smart has just about hit his ceiling. He'll become more intelligent and emotionally regulated on the court, but I doubt he improves from a talent perspective.

[crimson_stallion]

so rollie, how much higher do you think Smart's ceiling is? How much better than Tony Allen?

How about Tyreke Evans with intangibles and elite defense?

Nope. 

Tyreke was an elite athlete and a crazy good ball handler and also had some pretty impressive point guard skills - he was an excellent finisher at the basket from day one.

Remember Tyreke averaged close to 20/5/5 in his rookie year.  Smart isn't even close to his level on the offensive end. 

Smarts problem is that his comparisons are always going to be "player X minus [skill]", or "player Y minus [talent]". 

For example, it's always something like:
* Chauncey Bullups minus the three point shot
* Tyreke Evans minus the ball handling
* Iggy minus the athleticism
* Gary Payton minus the passing ability

There's a reason for this, and it's that Smart has very few areas of the game in which he's a standout talent.  Defense is obviously one of them, and physical strength is another - but that's really about it. He doesn't have a lot of critical flaws (shooting is about the only one) but he doesn't have many standout talents either.

That, IMHO, limits his upside significantly.  He's kinda the guard version of Al Horford - solid at lots of things, but not excellent at much.

[IDreamCeltics]

so rollie, how much higher do you think Smart's ceiling is? How much better than Tony Allen?

Honestly, I think his ceiling is a Butler or Kawhi Leonard type... they develop defensively first and then figure out how to score after 3-4yrs in the league

I'm hoping for that too. Hopefully the scoring comes soon enough.

Yikes!  I think if you're hoping for that you're going to be REALLY disappointed.  Both Kawhi and Butler had NBA caliber offensive skills by their first year in the league.

In year 1 Kawhi shot .376% from three and shot .536% for two point field goals.  His career average from 3 is .391% and from 2 is .540%

In year 1 Butler averaged 5.6 Free throw attempts per 36 minutes.  His career average is 5.6 FTA per 36 minutes.

My point is that both these guys had legit NBA skills that they could build their offensive game around.  Butler could always get to the rim and draw fouls, Kawhi could always score efficiently.  Their volume increased and YES other areas of their games improved, but they improved around a foundation of something that was already there.

Marcus Smart will most likely improve offensively, but he's not going to be a go to scorer like those guys any time soon.     

                      2pFG%   3pFG%  FTAp36  FT%  eFG%
Year 1 stats       .410      .335      2.5       .646   .462
Year 2 stats       .427      .253      3.6       .777   .405

And YES I watched him dominate summer league and loved every second of it, but I don't think he's going to go away from what makes him special in the NBA and there are some inherent problems with that. 

He plays recklessly enough to get seriously injured two to three times a year.  That's most likely not going to change.  You can say it's bad luck, but the simple truth is if you throw your body full speed at the floor x amount of times you're going to get injured eventually, and Marcus throws his body around like it's worth four points every time he does it.

The tough thing for this guy is that the only resource these players have that's finite is their time.  Every two months you spend with your ankle in a cast is two months you're not working on your jumper.  Every 6 weeks you spend with your fingers splinted is six weeks you're not dribbling or passing with that hand.  You see my point right? While other healthier players are honing their craft and improving, a guy like Marcus is rehabbing trying to get back to where he was last year.  His offense will grow, but it will grow more slowly than you like, and at some point it'll be at the cost of what initially made him sort of special.

[Bobshot]

I'd be willing to bet that guys like Bradley and Smart who play serious defense expose themselves to injury more than guys who play mainly offense. You can exclude little guys like IT who go to the basket all the time against the bigs. These guys probably get hurt even more. Iverson used to be like that. Smart is like that, too. Going to the basket. Though he's not a big scorer and has some size.

[rollie mass]

so rollie, how much higher do you think Smart's ceiling is? How much better than Tony Allen?

Honestly, I think his ceiling is a Butler or Kawhi Leonard type... they develop defensively first and then figure out how to score after 3-4yrs in the league

I'm hoping for that too. Hopefully the scoring comes soon enough.

Yikes!  I think if you're hoping for that you're going to be REALLY disappointed.  Both Kawhi and Butler had NBA caliber offensive skills by their first year in the league.

In year 1 Kawhi shot .376% from three and shot .536% for two point field goals.  His career average from 3 is .391% and from 2 is .540%

In year 1 Butler averaged 5.6 Free throw attempts per 36 minutes.  His career average is 5.6 FTA per 36 minutes.

My point is that both these guys had legit NBA skills that they could build their offensive game around.  Butler could always get to the rim and draw fouls, Kawhi could always score efficiently.  Their volume increased and YES other areas of their games improved, but they improved around a foundation of something that was already there.

Marcus Smart will most likely improve offensively, but he's not going to be a go to scorer like those guys any time soon.     

                      2pFG%   3pFG%  FTAp36  FT%  eFG%
Year 1 stats       .410      .335      2.5       .646   .462
Year 2 stats       .427      .253      3.6       .777   .405

And YES I watched him dominate summer league and loved every second of it, but I don't think he's going to go away from what makes him special in the NBA and there are some inherent problems with that. 

He plays recklessly enough to get seriously injured two to three times a year.  That's most likely not going to change.  You can say it's bad luck, but the simple truth is if you throw your body full speed at the floor x amount of times you're going to get injured eventually, and Marcus throws his body around like it's worth four points every time he does it.

The tough thing for this guy is that the only resource these players have that's finite is their time.  Every two months you spend with your ankle in a cast is two months you're not working on your jumper.  Every 6 weeks you spend with your fingers splinted is six weeks you're not dribbling or passing with that hand.  You see my point right? While other healthier players are honing their craft and improving, a guy like Marcus is rehabbing trying to get back to where he was last year.  His offense will grow, but it will grow more slowly than you like, and at some point it'll be at the cost of what initially made him sort of special.

 TP-i have posted how stats are useless with marcus because of rehabbing and getting back to normal-maybe if we had a real rim protector our perimeter defence wouldn't have to be as intense-smart shot 33% his rookie year not bad considering his high ankle sprain and having no lift and first step-avery was injury prone and i don't think that is fair description
 its just what happens playing tough defence-