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Would you trade 3/16/23 for 7/9?

Yes
8 (33.3%)
No
16 (66.7%)

Total Members Voted: 24

Voting closed: June 29, 2016, 03:23:34 PM

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Would you trade 3/16/23 for 7/9?
« on: June 14, 2016, 03:23:35 PM »

Offline No Nickname

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Let's say Simmons/Ingram go 1 & 2 and Ainge feels like 3-7 are all basically a crapshoot.  And 8-15 are the next tier and are all pretty equivalent. 

Would you deal these three picks (3, 16, 23) for two in the top ten (7, 9)? 

Then with #7 he can draft one of:
Hield
Murray
Bender
Brown
Dunn

And with #9 he can draft either one of those guys who might fall or:

Marquese Chriss
Sabonis
Deyonta Davis

How could we get 7/9?  Like this:

Trade 3/16 to Phoenix for 4/13
Trade 4/23 to Denver for 7/15
Trade 13/15 to Toronto for 9 (or to Milwaukee for 10)

The biggest leap might be the Denver trade but if they've fallen in love with Brown they may want to move up three spots to secure him and be willing to drop from 15 to 23.










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Re: Would you trade 3/16/23 for 7/9?
« Reply #1 on: June 14, 2016, 03:26:36 PM »

Offline boscel33

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Quote from: No Nickname on June 14, 2016, 03:23:35 PM
Let's say Simmons/Ingram go 1 & 2 and Ainge feels like 3-7 are all basically a crapshoot.  And 8-15 are the next tier and are all pretty equivalent. 

Would you deal these three picks (3, 16, 23) for two in the top ten (7, 9)? 

Then with #7 he can draft one of:
Hield
Murray
Bender
Brown
Dunn

And with #9 he can draft either one of those guys who might fall or:

Marquese Chriss
Sabonis
Deyonta Davis

How could we get 7/9?  Like this:

Trade 3/16 to Phoenix for 4/13
Trade 4/23 to Denver for 7/15
Trade 13/15 to Toronto for 9 (or to Milwaukee for 10)

The biggest leap might be the Denver trade but if they've fallen in love with Brown they may want to move up three spots to secure him and be willing to drop from 15 to 23.

If I can't trade #3 first, then I just might, but I'd add one more to the list, Poetl.  I'm not saying I'd take him, but I'd consider it.
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Re: Would you trade 3/16/23 for 7/9?
« Reply #2 on: June 14, 2016, 03:28:43 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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If we could end up with hield and Poeltl I'd be cool with it.
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Re: Would you trade 3/16/23 for 7/9?
« Reply #3 on: June 14, 2016, 03:36:40 PM »

Offline droopdog7

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Honestly, I think that 3/16 are worth more than 7/9 by themselves.  So no.
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Re: Would you trade 3/16/23 for 7/9?
« Reply #4 on: June 14, 2016, 03:39:31 PM »

Offline chilidawg

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I'd do it, because I think the difference between 3 and 7 isn't that big.  Making all 3 trades to get to that point seems unlikely though.
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Re: Would you trade 3/16/23 for 7/9?
« Reply #5 on: June 14, 2016, 03:51:20 PM »

Offline PickNRoll

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You're not getting Dunn or Murray at 7, so, I see it like this.

1-2: simmons, ingram
3-5: murray, dunn, bender in some order

At 7 you should be able to pick from all but one of

Brown
Hield
Poeltl
Chriss
Ellenson

It's likely that Poeltl and Chriss are gone by 9.  So this scenario requires that Danny

- doesn't love Murray, Dunn or Bender
- sees Brown, Chriss, Hield and Poeltl as comparable value, knowing one of them will be available at 7
- likes certain players in the 7-16 range, such as Davis, Skal, Korkmaz, Sabonis, Luwawu, as much as players in the 3-7 range

Not out of the question. 
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Re: Would you trade 3/16/23 for 7/9?
« Reply #6 on: June 14, 2016, 03:51:26 PM »

Offline footey

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There us so much more value in the 3 than the 7, even in this draft.  You have your pick of 5 guys at 3, whereas at 7 you have to take the last of the 5 guys selected. No thank you. I just don't agree that these 5 positions are the same. 
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Re: Would you trade 3/16/23 for 7/9?
« Reply #7 on: June 14, 2016, 03:52:48 PM »

Offline wdleehi

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No.   While there is talk about 3 being close to 7, in terms of trade value, there could be a big difference. 
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Re: Would you trade 3/16/23 for 7/9?
« Reply #8 on: June 14, 2016, 04:18:53 PM »

Offline dreamgreen

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Yea I would do that, think we could land 2 good players that would be building blocks for years.
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Re: Would you trade 3/16/23 for 7/9?
« Reply #9 on: June 14, 2016, 04:24:06 PM »

Offline colincb

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The trade value you're giving up is roughly 19% too much according to the 82games valuation model. Taking the 23rd pick out will make it 3% too little which is close enough to make the deal a toss up proposition.

In that case I like Dunn as the clear BPA at 3 (I'm also open to Bender if Danny is), would take him, and wouldn't do the deal.

http://www.82games.com/barzilai1.htm
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Re: Would you trade 3/16/23 for 7/9?
« Reply #10 on: June 14, 2016, 04:30:20 PM »

Offline Granath

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Quote from: No Nickname on June 14, 2016, 03:23:35 PM
Let's say Simmons/Ingram go 1 & 2 and Ainge feels like 3-7 are all basically a crapshoot. 

The bold part already makes this question unnecessary and obvious. If Ainge feels like 3-7 are similar then he makes this deal (without 23, which is an overpay) because he accumulates more assets without giving up anything since in this scenario he feels 3 is roughly equal to 7. It's quite the no-brainer. But if doesn't feel that way then this deal is DOA.

Thus the rest of your post on how to make this happen is quite superfluous.

Now the title of the thread is "would YOU trade..." and that has nothing to do with Danny. The answer is no because I think there's a real difference between 3 and 7 in this draft.
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Re: Would you trade 3/16/23 for 7/9?
« Reply #11 on: June 14, 2016, 04:44:22 PM »

Offline PickNRoll

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Quote from: wdleehi on June 14, 2016, 03:52:48 PM
No.   While there is talk about 3 being close to 7, in terms of trade value, there could be a big difference.
Isn't this incentive to consider a trade, though?  I agree that the return needs to be higher.
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Re: Would you trade 3/16/23 for 7/9?
« Reply #12 on: June 14, 2016, 04:48:32 PM »

Offline PickNRoll

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Quote from: colincb on June 14, 2016, 04:24:06 PM
The trade value you're giving up is roughly 19% too much according to the 82games valuation model. Taking the 23rd pick out will make it 3% too little which is close enough to make the deal a toss up proposition.

In that case I like Dunn as the clear BPA at 3 (I'm also open to Bender if Danny is), would take him, and wouldn't do the deal.

http://www.82games.com/barzilai1.htm
It also strikes me that a player with value "20" is worth more than 2 10's.  How many Evan Turners are worth a Michael Jordan?  There is no such number.  It skews at the top.
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Re: Would you trade 3/16/23 for 7/9?
« Reply #13 on: June 14, 2016, 05:13:37 PM »

Offline colincb

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Quote from: PickNRoll on June 14, 2016, 04:48:32 PM
Quote from: colincb on June 14, 2016, 04:24:06 PM
The trade value you're giving up is roughly 19% too much according to the 82games valuation model. Taking the 23rd pick out will make it 3% too little which is close enough to make the deal a toss up proposition.

In that case I like Dunn as the clear BPA at 3 (I'm also open to Bender if Danny is), would take him, and wouldn't do the deal.

http://www.82games.com/barzilai1.htm
It also strikes me that a player with value "20" is worth more than 2 10's.  How many Evan Turners are worth a Michael Jordan?  There is no such number.  It skews at the top.
That's true, but we're valuing picks. If you knew the picks were going to be successful, you would value a 20 > (2) 10s easily.
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Re: Would you trade 3/16/23 for 7/9?
« Reply #14 on: June 14, 2016, 05:22:10 PM »

Offline passesofftodj

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This team needs stars, not more depth.  They are already looking at a difficult time consolidating the roster and now we're going to add another pick?

You draft the player you think is going to be a star at number three or you trade that pick for a star period.
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