Deep draft projection could help pick-heavy Celtics

[ConnerHenry]

From Forsberg today on ESPN:

The ESPN analytics staff dusted off its NBA Draft Projection model this week, assigning grades and boom/bust percentages to college players with a goal of projecting their likelihood for NBA success (read this explainer for details on the model).

Here's the interesting part for Celtics fans: This year's class delivered the highest average draft grade for the top 50 college prospects of any draft since the model began tracking in 2001. That's seemingly good news for a team armed with eight selections (or 13.3 percent of the entire 60-pick draft).

A couple things to keep in mind: The model doesn't project international players or high school players. That eliminates guys like Dragan Bender and Thon Maker from this year's draft and skews the model a bit for drafts from 2001-05 when the NBA still allowed prep-to-pro leaps.

But the high average draft grade suggests that there's talent to be found throughout this year's event, even if it's not as top heavy as some recent drafts. If Boston is in a tough spot with a not-so-obvious selection at No. 3, then things might be a bit easier navigating from there for a team that also holds picks Nos. 16, 23, 31, 35, 45, 51, and 58.
Prospects Thon Maker, Brandon Ingram and Jamal Murray are part of what appears to be a particularly deep upcoming NBA draft. Jesse D. Garrabrant/NBAE via Getty Images

A look at the average player grade, among the top 50 college prospects, in every draft for the past 16 years:

2016: 76.7

2010: 75.9

2012: 75.6

2015: 75.2

2008: 75.2

2013: 74.8

2011: 74.6

2009: 74.2

2014: 74.1

2006: 73.2

2007: 72.9

2001: 72.5

2003: 72.4

2005: 71.7

2002: 68.9

2004: 65.5

(You can view individual grades for the top 40 college players in this year's draft)
Highest recent draft gradesPlayer   Draft   Draft Grade
Marcus Smart   2014   93.9
Dion Waiters   2012   92.9
Nerlens Noel   2013   92.8
Anthony Davis   2012   91.8
Karl-Anthony Towns   2015   91.6

Looking back at last year's draft, the Celtics ended up selecting Terry Rozier (30th in model; 16th pick), R.J. Hunter (40th in model; 28th pick), and Jordan Mickey (34th in model; 33rd pick). In 2014, Marcus Smart had the highest grade (93.9) and third highest All-Star percentage of any player in the last five draft classes.

Sharon Katz of ESPN's analytics squad also notes that Jared Sullinger ranked high in the draft model (6th in model; 21st pick) in 2012, while James Young (22nd in model; 17th pick) wasn't nearly as touted. The one that got away -- Justise Winslow -- owned the third highest grade last year, behind only Karl-Anthony Towns and Jahlil Okafor.

[The One]

http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/16069613/espn-analytics-prospect-projections-ben-simmons-brandon-ingram-more-2016-nba-draft


Really interesting...

[PhoSita]

Taking advantage of a deep draft would require that the Celts actually use all of their picks and find roster spots and playing time for the players selected.

Unless the Celts are gonna let all their FAs walk and dump another couple guys eg Bradley, Jerebko, and Amir, and then go for a Philly-esque youth movement, it's hard to see that happening.

[loco_91]

I think the international class is really deep, too. Korkmaz, Zizic, Qi (if he's really 20), and possibly Zubac all look like potential lottery talent to me. Then there will be great international options in the 2nd round as well, guys like Rade Zagoric, Petr Cornelie, Isaiah Cordinier.

If we don't consolidate picks to move up in the 1st, we should be looking to draft + stash multiple guys in the late 1st and 2nd rounds.

[wiley]

I think the international class is really deep, too. Korkmaz, Zizic, Qi (if he's really 20), and possibly Zubac all look like potential lottery talent to me. Then there will be great international options in the 2nd round as well, guys like Rade Zagoric, Petr Cornelie, Isaiah Cordinier.

If we don't consolidate picks to move up in the 1st, we should be looking to draft + stash multiple guys in the late 1st and 2nd rounds.

It's the international class that's making the depth.  Disagree with post above yours that draft depth only helps Celts if they create roster spots.  This is a stash lovers dream draft.  Also, not sure it's wise to consolidate late first rounders to move up, unless done very carefully and for a guy Danny is nuts for. For example:  Will Ellenson really be better than Zizic, Or Korkmaz, or Prince or D. Jones?

Of course, I'm all in on consolidation for a guy who slips from current top 8 down to the 9-13 range.

[meangreenmachine]

Alas, stashing five or six guys does not help us this year. And it's not like five or six roster spots will open this time next year. We desperately need to consolidate.

[YoungOne87]

since I am from germany I hope we draft Paul Zipser early in the 2nd round, could be a good 3 and D backup small forward

[slamtheking]

Alas, stashing five or six guys does not help us this year. And it's not like five or six roster spots will open this time next year. We desperately need to consolidate.

the point of draft and stash isn't to bring them over right away -- it's to have them develop elsewhere and then come over when they're ready to contribute. 

Of the 15 players we ended the season with, I suspect that, barring a significant trade, we'll only be opening 3 spots -->Sully's, Zeller's and Holland's.

If we actually make all our picks (which I seriously doubt but even if we do, I strongly suspect some will be used in trades during the summer), having 3 rookies (including 3 from last year and the perpetually rookie-like Young) is a lot of youth to add.  using 5 picks on draft and stash players allows the C's to have those players develop overseas for 1, 2, 3 or even 4 years before requiring a roster spot.

by then, Young, KO, JJ and Amir's deals are up.  The deal Turner is likely to sign this offseason is likely up.  plenty of spots opening up and there's certainly much fewer picks the C's will be making the next several seasons.

[Irish Stew]

Maybe this is simply a function of grade inflation much like high school classroom grade inflation. What suggests that that is likely the case is a higher grade for Smart than Anthony Davis, though the higher grade for Waiters in the same draft may indicate that the whole model is flawed.

[mmmmm]

since I am from germany I hope we draft Paul Zipser early in the 2nd round, could be a good 3 and D backup small forward

Zipser looked real impressive at Eurocamp.

[BitterJim]

Maybe this is simply a function of grade inflation much like high school classroom grade inflation. What suggests that that is likely the case is a higher grade for Smart than Anthony Davis, though the higher grade for Waiters in the same draft may indicate that the whole model is flawed.

It seems like it rates players that played more than 1 year of college (lime Smart and Waiters) higher than freshmen