Butler, Horford, Durant Question

[GryphMinuteMan]

I know all 3 of these guys (especially Durant) are not likely to be acquired by the Celtics this year, but let's say the Celtics traded for Butler in a deal such as:

Celtics get:
Butler

Bulls get:
Bradley
Jerebko
Olynyk
Young
#3 pick

Please keep your comments to yourself about the trade. That isn't the point.

What I'm asking is would the Celtics still have the flexibility to still sign Horford and Durant if this trade (or some other trade for Butler) went through?

[manl_lui]

in my opinion, if the Celtics are to get any of Butler/Horford Durant, it HAS to be in that exact order. Durant being the best player among the 3, and Horford is a free agent.

I think if we are able to get Butler in a trade, like #3/Bradley like most people mentioned, that makes signing/pitching to Horford a lot simpler and increase our chance to signing Horford

IT/Butler -> convince Horford to sign

Once you get that done, I still don't think Durant is guaranteed to come here or at all, but I sure think it INCREASES the chance he thinks about it or at least give us a chance or put us in his short list of teams.

IT/Butler/Horford -> convince Durant to sign

even if Durant doesn't come here, that roster already is a huge improvement over last year

IT/Butler/Crowder/Horford/Amir with hopefully Smart/Turner still on the team

if Durant signs here

IT/Butler/Durant/Horford/ (New center here), I think if that is the case, Amir isn't coming back as we probably need the money to sign Durant, and I sure don't think Sully returns either, that either leaves KO/Mickey starting or signing a quality cheap big.

Either way, very exciting offseason imo, even if there are no fireworks, the progress and growth on this team alone is worth being excited for

[GryphMinuteMan]

I know all 3 of these guys (especially Durant) are not likely to be acquired by the Celtics this year, but let's say the Celtics traded for Butler in a deal such as:

Celtics get:
Butler

Bulls get:
Bradley
Jerebko
Olynyk
Young
#3 pick

Please keep your comments to yourself about the trade. That isn't the point.

What I'm asking is would the Celtics still have the flexibility to still sign Horford and Durant if this trade (or some other trade for Butler) went through?

Let me be specific, would the celtics still have room under the cap to sign Horford and Durant to max deals after Butler is acquired?

[jbpats]

I know all 3 of these guys (especially Durant) are not likely to be acquired by the Celtics this year, but let's say the Celtics traded for Butler in a deal such as:

Celtics get:
Butler

Bulls get:
Bradley
Jerebko
Olynyk
Young
#3 pick

Please keep your comments to yourself about the trade. That isn't the point.

What I'm asking is would the Celtics still have the flexibility to still sign Horford and Durant if this trade (or some other trade for Butler) went through?

Let me be specific, would the celtics still have room under the cap to sign Horford and Durant to max deals after Butler is acquired?

Yes, Butler is not on a max deal and Crowder and IT are on "bargain contracts" we could definitely afford all three but would likely not be able to retain Amir (team option), Sully and ET (free agents).
That being said, I don't see Durant coming this year, if we were to sign him I think it will be next year. 

[GryphMinuteMan]

I know all 3 of these guys (especially Durant) are not likely to be acquired by the Celtics this year, but let's say the Celtics traded for Butler in a deal such as:

Celtics get:
Butler

Bulls get:
Bradley
Jerebko
Olynyk
Young
#3 pick

Please keep your comments to yourself about the trade. That isn't the point.

What I'm asking is would the Celtics still have the flexibility to still sign Horford and Durant if this trade (or some other trade for Butler) went through?

Let me be specific, would the celtics still have room under the cap to sign Horford and Durant to max deals after Butler is acquired?

Yes, Butler is not on a max deal and Crowder and IT are on "bargain contracts" we could definitely afford all three but would likely not be able to retain Amir (team option), Sully and ET (free agents).
That being said, I don't see Durant coming this year, if we were to sign him I think it will be next year.

Thank you. I wasn't sure if Butler was on a max deal or not.

[Sketch5]

I would love to grab Gasol in the Butler trade. Especially if KO is involved with that trade. I think Amir would be involved instead, and keep a couple players. Amir cold be cut from the books this year I believe and that saves cap for CHI if they are going to full blown rebuild. Add the 23rd pic, or bundle both 23 and 16 and a 2nd rounder for 13.

THen you potentially have...

IT/Smart/Rozier
Butler/Hunter/Turner?
Durant/Crowder
Horford/Mickey
Gasol/KO

I'd get another big just to keep Horford and Gasol's minutes down. Durant,Horford,Gasol really spread the floor for IT and Bulter, and thats a lot of shooting on the starting unit and a balance of D and O with the second unit.

[jpotter33]

You really need to avoid using JJ in any deal, and you absolutely can't use Amir in any deal, since both of those will need to be waived in order to create max cap space for both Horford and Durant.

So if you traded something like Bradley, Rozier, Young, Hunter, and #3 for Butler, waived JJ and Amir, renounced our free agents, and traded away our two other first round picks, you'd have enough to offer both Horford and Durant max deals (around $26M) with something around $2M to spare, if I did the math right in my head. That'd leave you with the following roster:

PG: IT/Smart
SG: Butler/?
SF: Durant/?
PF: Crowder/Mickey
C: Horford/KO

There might be a way to keep Turner in this deal, though it'd be tricky.

[TheSundanceKid]

Simple answer. To afford Durant and Horford we would need to waive rights to all FAs, Amir and Jerebko.

So in a trade for Butler you must give up as much salary as you bring in. IN your example we bring in Butler's $17,552,209 and ship out $13,175,000 + the salary of the #3 pick, which I doubt is $4m. You can't include Jerebko's contract as that would need to be waived anyway.

So basically no you would fall just short. Moving Rozier and Hunter would clear enough space I believe on top of what you propose

[GryphMinuteMan]

You really need to avoid using JJ in any deal, and you absolutely can't use Amir in any deal, since both of those will need to be waived in order to create max cap space for both Horford and Durant.

So if you traded something like Bradley, Rozier, Young, Hunter, and #3 for Butler, waived JJ and Amir, renounced our free agents, and traded away our two other first round picks, you'd have enough to offer both Horford and Durant max deals (around $26M) with something around $2M to spare, if I did the math right in my head. That'd leave you with the following roster:

PG: IT/Smart
SG: Butler/?
SF: Durant/?
PF: Crowder/Mickey
C: Horford/KO

There might be a way to keep Turner in this deal, though it'd be tricky.

Thank you for the info!

[BitterJim]

Simple answer. To afford Durant and Horford we would need to waive rights to all FAs, Amir and Jerebko.

So in a trade for Butler you must give up as much salary as you bring in. IN your example we bring in Butler's $17,552,209 and ship out $13,175,000 + the salary of the #3 pick, which I doubt is $4m. You can't include Jerebko's contract as that would need to be waived anyway.

So basically no you would fall just short. Moving Rozier and Hunter would clear enough space I believe on top of what you propose

This isn't completely true.  Due to having cap space, we could trade for Butler with no (or almost no) salary going out.  If the deal would bring us over the cap (i.e. we had already signed Horford and Durant), we would need to send out at least 80% of what we'd be bringing in (so, $14.04 million, less than a million more than the proposed deal), keeping in mind that if the rookie scale for the #3 pick in 2016 is $3,952,500 and Ainge usually gives rookies 120% of the rookie scale (so $4.743 million)

Jerebko could be included in the deal if we made the deal before adding Durant and Horford or if we made cap room without getting rid of him (which is unlikely)

Now we just wait for saltlover to come in and give us all the answers

[saltlover]

This needs to be clarified further.  Trading for Jimmy Butler, in a situation where we also acquire KD and Horford, is very complicated.

For starters, if the salary cap is $92 million, we would be about $600k short of the room needed to sign Horford and KD to max deals, even AFTER getting rid of Amir and JJ (and John Holland), and renouncing all of our free agents.  So someone has to be moved out.

If Butler is traded for, there are two ways.  Firstly, he could be traded for on draft night.  This is an easy trade to make for salary matching purposes.  However, it means he'd already be on our roster when KD and Horford are signed, so you'd need to send out 2016 salaries that equal his 2016 salary (or actually exceed by $600k, as described above).  Furthermore, he has a 5% trade kicker, meaning his 2016 cap his is a little over $18.3 million.  So we'd have to send out approximately $19 million in salaries to fit him and have room for the other two.  That's a LOT to send out.  Bradley, Rozier, Hunter, Young, Mickey, and #3 combined are not enough.  You're still short by over $2 million in salary (since you'd now have 9 players on the roster and need to allocate a $547k cap hold for each roster slot below 12).

Alternatively, you can sign KD and Horford (remembering you still need to clear $600k), and then trade for Butler.  In this scenario, you have to send out $13.3 million in salaries to match.  However, the #3 pick (or #16 or #23) DO NOT count as part of this $13.3 million, unless the trade is made 30 days after any of the picks are signed (which is why the Wiggins deal was completed in August 2014 instead of July).  In this scenario, Bradley would have to be traded with all four of Rozier, Young, Hunter, and Mickey for it to work.  But recall you've also had to shed $600k salary already, so presumably it's been one of the kids who's been moved.  Now you don't have enough salary to trade for Butler, since if you've dumped Hunter, who's the cheapest, you're short by $147k in matching salaries.

So the other choice is to trade for Butler in August, but if you're using the acquisition (or pending acquisition) of Butler to lure KD and Horford, that isn't an option either. 

It's really difficult to trade for Butler, and the cost is very steep to make the salaries work.  Bradley, Young plus the three rookies, the #3 pick, and something else to create the appropriate room.  Is it impossible?  No.  But it is not something we should expect.  And given the cost, I'm not sure it's something we should hope for, either.  Our roster would consist of KD, Horford, Butler, IT, Crowder, Olynyk, Smart, the #16 pick, whomever we could sign with the room exception of $2.9 million, and a host of players in minimum contracts, be they our second rounders or veterans.  It's really a nice top of the rotation, but it's really shallow, and very small in the frontcourt.  It'll be tough to even carve out a 9-man rotation of non-replacement level talent.

[Bobshot]

I think the strategy of trading the #3 pick for a veteran like Butler, and then using that as a carrot to get one of the big FAs, is a good one, provided you don't give up too much in the deal. Plus you pretty much have to be assured you can sign a Horford or Durant, or even a Howard or Noah, or you're still going to be weak up front.

What it means is Danny is going to have to have everything pretty much lined up in FAs and trades just before he goes into the draft. What he does in the draft at #3 will indicate what direction he is going.

[jpotter33]

This needs to be clarified further.  Trading for Jimmy Butler, in a situation where we also acquire KD and Horford, is very complicated.

For starters, if the salary cap is $92 million, we would be about $600k short of the room needed to sign Horford and KD to max deals, even AFTER getting rid of Amir and JJ (and John Holland), and renouncing all of our free agents.  So someone has to be moved out.

If Butler is traded for, there are two ways.  Firstly, he could be traded for on draft night.  This is an easy trade to make for salary matching purposes.  However, it means he'd already be on our roster when KD and Horford are signed, so you'd need to send out 2016 salaries that equal his 2016 salary (or actually exceed by $600k, as described above). Furthermore, he has a 5% trade kicker, meaning his 2016 cap his is a little over $18.3 million.  So we'd have to send out approximately $19 million in salaries to fit him and have room for the other two.  That's a LOT to send out.  Bradley, Rozier, Hunter, Young, Mickey, and #3 combined are not enough.  You're still short by over $2 million in salary (since you'd now have 9 players on the roster and need to allocate a $547k cap hold for each roster slot below 12).

Alternatively, you can sign KD and Horford (remembering you still need to clear $600k), and then trade for Butler.  In this scenario, you have to send out $13.3 million in salaries to match.  However, the #3 pick (or #16 or #23) DO NOT count as part of this $13.3 million, unless the trade is made 30 days after any of the picks are signed (which is why the Wiggins deal was completed in August 2014 instead of July).  In this scenario, Bradley would have to be traded with all four of Rozier, Young, Hunter, and Mickey for it to work.  But recall you've also had to shed $600k salary already, so presumably it's been one of the kids who's been moved.  Now you don't have enough salary to trade for Butler, since if you've dumped Hunter, who's the cheapest, you're short by $147k in matching salaries.

So the other choice is to trade for Butler in August, but if you're using the acquisition (or pending acquisition) of Butler to lure KD and Horford, that isn't an option either. 

It's really difficult to trade for Butler, and the cost is very steep to make the salaries work.  Bradley, Young plus the three rookies, the #3 pick, and something else to create the appropriate room.  Is it impossible?  No.  But it is not something we should expect.  And given the cost, I'm not sure it's something we should hope for, either.  Our roster would consist of KD, Horford, Butler, IT, Crowder, Olynyk, Smart, the #16 pick, whomever we could sign with the room exception of $2.9 million, and a host of players in minimum contracts, be they our second rounders or veterans.  It's really a nice top of the rotation, but it's really shallow, and very small in the frontcourt.  It'll be tough to even carve out a 9-man rotation of non-replacement level talent.

TP for the info on the trade kicker. Didn't know about that. That certainly does make things a little more difficult.

But where are you getting that we'll have to shed around $600k in order to sign Horford and Durant? From my calculations using http://www.basketball-reference.com/contracts/BOS.html,
we'd have $34,161,569 in salary after waiving JJ and AJ. Given that both are 9 year vets, they can each command 30% of the cap, which if set at $92M is $27.6M apiece. That would leave us at $89, 361, 569M.

So what am I missing? Were you counting the draft picks that we'd have, too? Because I don't think those would be a problem to move, especially in a deal. But we could certainly keep at least one of the non-lottery picks in this scenario I think, since it wouldn't jolt us past $92M.

EDIT: Also, due to positioning and our current strengths in the guard/wing position, I think trading for Love makes more sense than Butler. Durant isn't going to come here to play a small ball 4, so signing Horford + Durant on the condition that we would also trade for Love makes more sense.

We'd probably have to trade away someone like Young to have enough space to keep the number three pick until after free agency and when we'd trade for Love, but it could be done and would be a much better overall fit than Butler being here.

[saltlover]

This needs to be clarified further.  Trading for Jimmy Butler, in a situation where we also acquire KD and Horford, is very complicated.

For starters, if the salary cap is $92 million, we would be about $600k short of the room needed to sign Horford and KD to max deals, even AFTER getting rid of Amir and JJ (and John Holland), and renouncing all of our free agents.  So someone has to be moved out.

If Butler is traded for, there are two ways.  Firstly, he could be traded for on draft night.  This is an easy trade to make for salary matching purposes.  However, it means he'd already be on our roster when KD and Horford are signed, so you'd need to send out 2016 salaries that equal his 2016 salary (or actually exceed by $600k, as described above). Furthermore, he has a 5% trade kicker, meaning his 2016 cap his is a little over $18.3 million.  So we'd have to send out approximately $19 million in salaries to fit him and have room for the other two.  That's a LOT to send out.  Bradley, Rozier, Hunter, Young, Mickey, and #3 combined are not enough.  You're still short by over $2 million in salary (since you'd now have 9 players on the roster and need to allocate a $547k cap hold for each roster slot below 12).

Alternatively, you can sign KD and Horford (remembering you still need to clear $600k), and then trade for Butler.  In this scenario, you have to send out $13.3 million in salaries to match.  However, the #3 pick (or #16 or #23) DO NOT count as part of this $13.3 million, unless the trade is made 30 days after any of the picks are signed (which is why the Wiggins deal was completed in August 2014 instead of July).  In this scenario, Bradley would have to be traded with all four of Rozier, Young, Hunter, and Mickey for it to work.  But recall you've also had to shed $600k salary already, so presumably it's been one of the kids who's been moved.  Now you don't have enough salary to trade for Butler, since if you've dumped Hunter, who's the cheapest, you're short by $147k in matching salaries.

So the other choice is to trade for Butler in August, but if you're using the acquisition (or pending acquisition) of Butler to lure KD and Horford, that isn't an option either. 

It's really difficult to trade for Butler, and the cost is very steep to make the salaries work.  Bradley, Young plus the three rookies, the #3 pick, and something else to create the appropriate room.  Is it impossible?  No.  But it is not something we should expect.  And given the cost, I'm not sure it's something we should hope for, either.  Our roster would consist of KD, Horford, Butler, IT, Crowder, Olynyk, Smart, the #16 pick, whomever we could sign with the room exception of $2.9 million, and a host of players in minimum contracts, be they our second rounders or veterans.  It's really a nice top of the rotation, but it's really shallow, and very small in the frontcourt.  It'll be tough to even carve out a 9-man rotation of non-replacement level talent.

TP for the info on the trade kicker. Didn't know about that. That certainly does make things a little more difficult.

But where are you getting that we'll have to shed around $600k in order to sign Horford and Durant? From my calculations using http://www.basketball-reference.com/contracts/BOS.html,
we'd have $34,161,569 in salary after waiving JJ and AJ. Given that both are 9 year vets, they can each command 30% of the cap, which if set at $92M is $27.6M apiece. That would leave us at $89, 361, 569M.

So what am I missing? Were you counting the draft picks that we'd have, too? Because I don't think those would be a problem to move, especially in a deal.

Yes, I'm counting the draft pick holds.  They exist until they are moved.  They are not impediments to signing Durant and Horford, but they can't be ignored.  The cap hold for #3 is almost $4 million, for instance.

Also, due to quirks in the CBA, a 30% max salary will be right about $26 million at a $92 million cap.  Adding in the holds for al three draft picks is gets us to $92.6 million.

[jpotter33]

This needs to be clarified further.  Trading for Jimmy Butler, in a situation where we also acquire KD and Horford, is very complicated.

For starters, if the salary cap is $92 million, we would be about $600k short of the room needed to sign Horford and KD to max deals, even AFTER getting rid of Amir and JJ (and John Holland), and renouncing all of our free agents.  So someone has to be moved out.

If Butler is traded for, there are two ways.  Firstly, he could be traded for on draft night.  This is an easy trade to make for salary matching purposes.  However, it means he'd already be on our roster when KD and Horford are signed, so you'd need to send out 2016 salaries that equal his 2016 salary (or actually exceed by $600k, as described above). Furthermore, he has a 5% trade kicker, meaning his 2016 cap his is a little over $18.3 million.  So we'd have to send out approximately $19 million in salaries to fit him and have room for the other two.  That's a LOT to send out.  Bradley, Rozier, Hunter, Young, Mickey, and #3 combined are not enough.  You're still short by over $2 million in salary (since you'd now have 9 players on the roster and need to allocate a $547k cap hold for each roster slot below 12).

Alternatively, you can sign KD and Horford (remembering you still need to clear $600k), and then trade for Butler.  In this scenario, you have to send out $13.3 million in salaries to match.  However, the #3 pick (or #16 or #23) DO NOT count as part of this $13.3 million, unless the trade is made 30 days after any of the picks are signed (which is why the Wiggins deal was completed in August 2014 instead of July).  In this scenario, Bradley would have to be traded with all four of Rozier, Young, Hunter, and Mickey for it to work.  But recall you've also had to shed $600k salary already, so presumably it's been one of the kids who's been moved.  Now you don't have enough salary to trade for Butler, since if you've dumped Hunter, who's the cheapest, you're short by $147k in matching salaries.

So the other choice is to trade for Butler in August, but if you're using the acquisition (or pending acquisition) of Butler to lure KD and Horford, that isn't an option either. 

It's really difficult to trade for Butler, and the cost is very steep to make the salaries work.  Bradley, Young plus the three rookies, the #3 pick, and something else to create the appropriate room.  Is it impossible?  No.  But it is not something we should expect.  And given the cost, I'm not sure it's something we should hope for, either.  Our roster would consist of KD, Horford, Butler, IT, Crowder, Olynyk, Smart, the #16 pick, whomever we could sign with the room exception of $2.9 million, and a host of players in minimum contracts, be they our second rounders or veterans.  It's really a nice top of the rotation, but it's really shallow, and very small in the frontcourt.  It'll be tough to even carve out a 9-man rotation of non-replacement level talent.

TP for the info on the trade kicker. Didn't know about that. That certainly does make things a little more difficult.

But where are you getting that we'll have to shed around $600k in order to sign Horford and Durant? From my calculations using http://www.basketball-reference.com/contracts/BOS.html,
we'd have $34,161,569 in salary after waiving JJ and AJ. Given that both are 9 year vets, they can each command 30% of the cap, which if set at $92M is $27.6M apiece. That would leave us at $89, 361, 569M.

So what am I missing? Were you counting the draft picks that we'd have, too? Because I don't think those would be a problem to move, especially in a deal.

Yes, I'm counting the draft pick holds.  They exist until they are moved.  They are not impediments to signing Durant and Horford, but they can't be ignored.  The cap hold for #3 is almost $4 million, for instance.

Also, due to quirks in the CBA, a 30% max salary will be right about $26 million at a $92 million cap.  Adding in the holds for al three draft picks is gets us to $92.6 million.

Okay, I saw that $26M salary somewhere else, too, and it confused me. Well, we could trade away number 23 then and be under the cap to sign both Horford and Durant then. We'd just have to convince both of them that a bigger trade is coming in Love or Butler.

However, if the two teams were intent on getting a trade done, I don't see why waiting the thirty days for the contracts to count as actual salary would be a problem. The Wiggins trade set precedent for that. And unless we wanted to almost COMPLETELY gut the team, we'd need those salaries to count, especially whoever is picked at third, to keep some semblance of a supporting cast around our new additions. That'd probably be the difference of keeping one of Bradley or Crowder rather than shipping them out, which is huge.