Would you trade #3 for Jusuf Nurkic?

[LarBrd33]

In their recent insider article, Chad Ford and Kevin Pelton made some recommendations for the Celtics.

Ford recommended Boston trade Isaiah Thomas + the #3 pick + Jonas Jerebko for Jimmy Butler.

Pelton recommended offering the pick for Jusuf Nurkic:

If I were Ainge, I might call the Denver Nuggets about their centers Nikola Jokic and Jusuf Nurkic. If Denver doesn't believe they can play together, either would be an interesting prospect to add to the Celtics' frontcourt. Nurkic for the No. 3 in a down draft probably would be reasonable value. Jokic would surely require additional return.

Curious if anyone thinks it's a good idea. 

Nurkic was taken 16th in 2014, but showed some encouraging signs. 

He averaged 6.9 points, 6.2 rebounds, 1.1 blocks in just 17.8mpg with 44%/0%/63% shooting.  Those are solid per-minute numbers. 

He ended up missing most of the 2015 season after having surgery to repair a partially torn left patellar tendon.

He came back to play 32 games and put up similar stats to his rookie season:  8.2 points, 5.5 rebounds, 1.4 blocks with 41%/0%/61% shooting in 17.1 mpg

Interesting that Pelton thinks Nurkic is fair value for the #3 pick.   It's either because like Pelton says, this is a down draft, or because Pelton likes Nurkic's potential based on his advanced stats.  For reference, here is Pelton's credentials:

Kevin Pelton joined ESPN Insider as an NBA analyst in January 2013. Along with Tom Haberstroh, he writes the daily "Per Diem" column covering the NBA using advanced statistical analysis. Pelton developed the WARP rating system and SCHOENE projection system for the NBA.

Previously, Pelton served as an author for BasketballProspectus.com since the site's inception in 2007 through 2012. Along with Bradford Doolittle, he co-authored four editions of the popular Pro Basketball Prospectus annuals. Pelton's NBA commentary also appeared on Hoopsworld.com, 82games.com, SI.com and in the Wall Street Journal. Pelton co-authored the paper "A Starting Point for Analyzing Basketball Statistics" with Justin Kubatko, Dean Oliver and Dan T. Rosenbaum and contributed to the College Basketball Prospectus series. He also served as a statistical consultant to the Indiana Pacers from 2010-12.

Bonus question:  Pelton says that we could try acquiring Nikola Jokic instead, but that it would "surely require additional return" beyond just the #3 pick.  How much more than the #3 pick would you be willing to trade for Jokic?  Last season he averaged 10 points, 7 rebounds, 0.6 blocks, 1 steal in 21.7mpg with 51%/33%/81% shooting

[alldaboston]

I would not trade the 3rd pick for either one.

I'd much rather use it for a star (though, not Pelton and Ford's ridiculous offer of 3 and Isaiah for Butler)

[BornReady]

Is pelton saying we would need to add more for Jokic?
If so he must be crazy

Trading the 3 pick for nurkic or jokic is serious overvalue of them
I like Nurkic
But there's no way he is and jokic is worth the 3 pick with several options still on the board

[Otsje P]

I like Nurkic, but trading the 3th pick straight up is a bit steep.

I would probably do Nurkic and 7th for Mickey/Young/Hunter (one or two of the those that is) and 3th.

[meangreenmachine]

I like Nurkic, but trading the 3th pick straight up is a bit steep.

I would probably do Nurkic and 7th for Mickey/Young/Hunter (one or two of the those that is) and 3th.

I think that would be a steal of a deal. I suspect Denver would want another future first. I would do it because Nurkic is exactly what we need and landing Hield or Poeltl at 7 is as close to a sure-thing as we could get in a draft (and either one is likely to contribute this year, unlike most rookies).

[meangreenmachine]

Bonus question:  Pelton says that we could try acquiring Nikola Jokic instead, but that it would "surely require additional return" beyond just the #3 pick.  How much more than the #3 pick would you be willing to trade for Jokic?  Last season he averaged 10 points, 7 rebounds, 0.6 blocks, 1 steal in 21.7mpg with 51%/33%/81% shooting

Apparently a lot. Seems like Jokic can stretch the floor and has a free throw percentage we are accustomed to seeing from shooting guards, not big men, whereas Nurkic is more of a traditional center on offense. From what I gather, Nurkic is better on defense and has more size but also a history of injury, unlike Jokic. That said, both have the potential to blossom into all-star centers, a rare commodity that cannot be had for nothing.

[HomerSapien]

I am a Nurkic fan, but I would not trade #3 for him even if this is a weak draft.  I love Nurkic's size, toughness, and movement for a guy his size, but I think he is nowhere near a sure thing right now, and that price is too high for me.

I'd just assume draft Poeltl at #3, who I think has similar potential, and who we would also have under contract for 2 more years on the rookie scale.  I also would be open to the #3 for Nurkic and #7 as previously mentioned.

[byennie]

I'd jump at Jokic... but not so much Nurkic at that price.

Given starter minutes, it looks like Jokic could be a 15/10/4/1/1 guy right now, shooting 55% from the field, 80% from the line and with range out to 3PT, with average to good defense. Obviously he could be even better.

Nurkic is also a nice prospect, but you're getting him in his 3rd year, he's been injured, he's almost 300 lbs, clogs up the offensive end, and he's shooting 43% for his career. His defensive numbers do look excellent, so if he's healthy and figures out the offensive end he'll be pretty good, but right now I don't see how he's earned top-3 pick value.

[biggs]

I wish I had two extra hands so I could give this four thumbs down. 

[NHCelticsFan]

I like Jokic, but I wouldn't give up anymore than the number 3 pick for him.  Even that gives me pause.  Nurkic I'll pass on.

[Celtics4ever]

Nurkic can't shoot period.

[The One]

No to Nurkic for the #3.

I would for the 16th pick.

[chambers]

Nurkic is terrible. He's going to be a poor man's Pekovic. Not hard to average those stats on a scrub team like that.

Pelton, like Ford, is pretty clueless with basketball knowledge. At least Ford watches some workouts and actually scouts players- although he does an awful job at that too- then edits his previous drafts lol.

But yeah, there is zero chance the Celtics trade the 3rd pick for a scub like Nurkic.
For Jokic, I could see that happening, but I think the Nuggets would, as you suggest, want more than just the #3 because Jokic looks like a future stud.


But god Nurkic is bad. I watched him a lot because Mudiay was one of my binkies. Just a brute stiff with no length and zero range.

[Smartacus]

I like Nurkic but not for the third. He'd make a nice Sullinger replacement if Sully prices himself out of town this summer.

Not the offensive player Jared is, but Nurkic sticks to what he does well and is really nimble for a guy his size.I definitely like the idea of him the main piece of a trade down to 7 package.

[PhoSita]

Emphatically no.